Originally Posted by Jessica

If my bicycle is wet, it rained.
If my bicycle is dry, it hasn't rained yet.
If my bicycle has ice on the seat, it is going to be a cold ride.
If my bicycle is hot to the touch, I need extra water.
If the trees are swaying, it is windy enough that I shorten my ride.
If the bike is swaying, I need to stop drinking.....

No, really, I check NOAA when I bother. I usually go by whatever worked for me yesterday, and a quick look around when I go outside. And I carry a cheapy poncho, lights, and leg and arm warmers.