Thanks for all the great feedback. As I've been told, when in doubt go with the smaller frame. I've found a 2003 54cm Trek 5200 at a local dealer offered at $2300, brand new, not a demo. It's even in the Naked Carbon color I was hoping to find. There doesn't appear to be any major differences between '03 and '04.

Unless someone can talk me out of it, then it just may be sitting under the tree for Christmas.