Originally Posted by lyeinyoureye
Eh...
it depends. What hasn't been discussed is the potential for more efficient engines via E85. The upper limit for gasoline efficiency depends on the octane of the fuel, higher octane implies that more EGR can be run, which absolutely kills pumping losses and boosts efficiency. E85 powered SI/PFI engines have greater efficiencies than their diesel counterparts, which means that vehicles tuned for E85 could nearly double current gasoline vehicle efficiency, all things being equal. So, if E85 is close to having an EROEI~=~unity, but doubles gasoline engine efficiency, the efficiency of use has roughly doubled. I'm guessing the enthusiasm for E85 is based on a 2002 (or 03?) paper done by the DOE, in which a VW TDI engine was retrofitted for SI/PFI/high EGR and showed better than diesel BTE with E85 and Methanol over the entire power band. The significance of this is low cost, greater than Prius energy efficiency, no hybrid system needed. Otoh, the US automotive industry has a history of accepting government grants for EV/AFV/efficient hybrids, using a small portion to build prototypes, and pocketing the rest while shelving the prototypes. Sure, they could make them, but they don't. Getting back on topic, I'm guessing in the short term corn prices will go up, as will any meat prices and certain foods. But, within a decade, I'm betting we'll see the normal corn prices, adjusted for inflation. Even if the current high cycle batts/ultra-caps are a load of horse %^&*, by 2015, the patent on EV size NiMH batts will have expired, and those are more than enough to build ~150-250 mile small passenger EVs that will absolutely trounce gas vehicles in cost over the life of the vehicle. These are the same batteries that SoCal Edison has "field tested" up to ~130k miles with little to no degradation in charge, and expects to approach 200k of useful life. So, EVs should have already hit, and I'm betting will hit, in a big way within the next decade.
increases in compression and rpm range = less engine life all else being equal
1 gallon of ethanol has less energy than 1 gallon of gasoline
currently E85 engines based on what's happening ion places where its common, like brazil for example. E85= about 15% less mileage, not more
this is whats happening now, not futuristic possiblities which may or may not happen
I would guess the extra things needed to be done to ICE engines to handle more compression like whats done with diesels would more than likely offset any gains even done on a massive scale.
the answer is still less consumption, less miles traveled, and much more efficient vehicles, and that means smaller lighter cars and less powerful cars, and eventually, very very few cars