Originally Posted by acidinmylegs
I suspect that with time, HIDs will go away altogether. The component prices are too high -- the bulbs are expensive, the ballasts are expensive, etc.
I think that it will play out like this:
Low end:Halogen will remain the best bang for the buck, they are cheap and easy to make.
Mid: single and double LED lights. This is where you'll get the longer burn times and more robust lights.
High end: Larger LED clusters with the absolute latest LED technology. This will be the bleeding edge.
That's my thoughts on the matter, anyway.
I would say you're right. It might take a year or two.