Realistically, the overwhelming majority of Californians own cars and use them as their primary mode of transportation, so in order to have the greatest impact, we need to address the behaviors of the motorists. Furthermore, I don't think the cost of cycling is preventing people from riding bicycles. Bicycles are already very cheap to own and operate. Simply riding more and driving less can save a lot of money, but that doesn't seem to be sufficiently motivating to people. And since most people in America by bicycles for recreation rather than transportation, I think motorists would see a rebate on bicycles as some kind of subsidy for leisure.

If our goal is to increase cycling as a share of the transportation, I think we should look to industrialized nations with a lot of cycling like the Netherlands, Denmark, England, and Canada, and adopt the kinds of policies they have that have been effective at encouraging cycling. I would guess that more bike lanes and bike paths, more secure bicycle parking, and high gas taxes would do a lot more to encourage cycling than a subsidy on the purchase of a new bicycle would do.