a little quotage from Wiki that I found interesting:
"Economist Michael Lynch [28] argues that the theory behind the Hubbert curve is overly simplistic, and that available evidence contradicts some of the more specific predictions. [29] He points to the date of the coming peak, which was initially projected to occur by 2000, but has now been pushed back to 2010, and notes that Campbell's predictions for world oil production are strongly biased towards underestimates[30]. Throughout 2001-2003, in his monthly newsletters, Campbell maintained that his 1996 prediction of a peak in 2000 was unchallenged. Finally in his April 2004 Newsletter, Campbell relented and shifted the peak to 2010. Later this was brought forward to 2007 but in October 2005, was shifted back to 2010.
Critics such as Leonardo Maugeri, vice president for the Italian energy company ENI, argue that Hubbert peak supporters such as Campbell previously predicted a peak in global oil production in both 1989 and 1995 [31], based on oil production data available at that time. Maugeri claims that nearly all of these estimates do not take into account non-conventional oil even though the availability of these resources is significant and the costs of extraction and processing, while still very high, are falling due to improved technology. Furthermore, he notes that the recovery rate from existing world oil fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% today due to new technology and predicts this trend will continue. The ratio between proven oil reserves and current production has constantly improved, passing from 20 years in 1948 to 35 years in 1972 and reaching about 40 years in 2003.[4] These improvements occurred even with low investment in new exploration and upgrading technology due to the low oil prices during the last 20 years. However, Maugeri feels that encouraging more exploration will require relatively high oil prices [32]."
One thing I found of note is "recovery rate from existing world oil fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% today". This is amazing. A 59% jump in recoverable oil in 25 years.
Just throwing this out there. I am no expert on the Hubbert theory or the oil industrry in general.... but the friends & relatives i have in the oil industry say the current situation is more political than anything else.
I have been bookmarking various sites with preditions and will check back in a couple years to see how it pans out... it will be interesting to see how accurate all this is.
cheers