Originally Posted by Helmet Head

You missed my point.

To think that the reason the driver did not notice the cyclists is because he was focussed on stuff that fell to the floor requires taking the situation completely out of the 40 second long context that should be considered.

He stooped over to reach for a jacket and paperwork that fell to the floor moments before reaching the cyclists, yet he was unaware of their presence. Had they been riding centered in the lane, he would have been aware of their presence, and almost certainly not only have noticed them, but would have been slowing down and/or moving laterally to avoid hitting them, putting off the chore to reach for the stuff until after he had passed them.

Originally Posted by Helmet Head

Further, by riding centered and using mirrors to regularly monitor to the rear, the cyclists would be in a position to recognize whether the driver had not noticed them and take appropriate action in the highly unlikely event that he would not have noticed them had they been clearly in his intended path up ahead.

If they were going 15 and he was going 60, he was closing at 45 mph or 66 feet per second. That means he was only a half mile back 40 seconds prior to reach them. That's the point where they should have started trying to get his attention through lane position (most effective way to do that is to already be positioned "centerish" by default at that point). 20 seconds later he's still a quarter mile back and they might already be able to tell if he's going to slow down and/or move laterally to pass or not. That would be the time to continue moving laterally and maybe zig-zagging if confirmation of being noticed had not yet been obtained. 10 seconds later he's 10 seconds from reaching them and now about 660 feet back. That would be the time to turn around and look at him for a full second or two if confirmation of being noticed had not yet been obtained. Five seconds later , bailing into the dirt shoulder might be considered in the highly unlikely event that the driver now 330 feet back still was continuing at full speed without altering his course at all.

None of that is possible if you're just riding along in the shoulder or bike lane, because the normal behavior for the driver, whether he noticed the cyclists or not, is the same: continue at full speed without altering course.

I repeat, to think that the reason the driver did not notice the cyclists is because he was focussed on stuff that fell to the floor requires taking the situation completely out of the 40 second long context that should be considered.