Originally Posted by P. B. Walker

With the route the way it is, I don't think Ullrich is Lance's biggest threat unless they are almost neck and neck going into the final TT. I don't see Ullrich dropping Lance on a mountain stage, or even beating him in the uphill TT. I also think Lance's team will fare better in the TTT. The only way I see Ullrich beating Lance is in the final TT, but that'll only be possible if they are within a minute of each other.

I actually think Hamilton is more of a threat to Lance. He can attack in the mountains and he can TT with the best of them. I don't think he'll come out too badly in the TTT either.

Mayo is the other threat. If he can get time on Lance in the mountains and uphill TT, he could very well hold on in the long TT at the end. I think he'll lose a lot of time in the TTT, so he'll have to really work hard in the early mountain stage to get that time back. I think for him, it'll be all about attack on every mountain to see if he can gain any time possible. If he doesn't go into the final TT with at least a 2 or 3 minute lead, there's no chance for him.

I'm not sure how Heras will do, but I have a feeling he's in the same boat as Mayo, with the exception that I think he's team will do better in the TTT. But he'll still need a big lead going in to the final TT in order to really put pressure on Lance.

I think the key for Lance will be to get time on Ullrich in the mountains and then just not lose much time in the final TT. Plus stick close to the true climbers in the mountains and squash them in the final TT.

Most people think this route doesn't favor Lance, but aside from the new rule about the TTT, I think it actually does favor him. I think his team will place top three for the TTT. He's probably got the best team in terms of being protected for the first week or so. He should arrive at the mountains fully juiced. Then, he's just gotta do what he does in the mountains. And if anyone can recover quickly for the final TT, it's Lance. I think most of the riders like to have those few flat stages after the mountains to rest up for the final TT.