Who can say? They've only been out a few years. I will say, that basically 9.9/10 frames we get in the shop that are cracked are aluminum, but you also have to realize we probably sell 8 or 9 aluminum bikes for every steel or carbon bike we sell. And the steel bikes we sell are overwhelmingly low end hybrids that either get ridden 5-10 miles a week or hang in someones garage 364 days a year. So really, who's to say at this point? Old lugged carbon bikes come apart, thats seen on all the old Giants, Univegas, and Specializeds, but they fixed that with the new lugless monocoque designs supposedly.