I'm constantly on CL looking for components for my first fixed gear project and I see between 3 and 5 postings for stolen bikes on a daily basis (and this might be my lowball estimate). Sure, some are extreme cases where people break into homes and make off with the goods. But what I want to know is what is the rate of cycles stolen as a result of a jimmied lock.

I searched the forums before and know:

No lock is 100% theft proof
Most thefts are crimes of opportunity
And if someone REALLY wants it, they'll take it

But, I wonder how SO many bikes are stolen, daily. I think, "Well, weren't they locked up?". Seems like the crime of opportunity theorum would mean that it wouldn't matter that no lock is totally theft proof.

(Sidebar: a friend of mine bought this rusty old beater bike for $5 off this homeless guy. Wouldn't buy a lock cuz 'he didn't wanna put any money into it' ?!?! He stashed it behind a dumpster during a job interview. Came out and it was gone.)

On my block, and around the neighborhood, really, there are tons of people who lock their bikes to the wrought iron fence outside their homes. I had mine locked up on the porch because I thought I was going back out, but I brought it in-paranoid-after an hour. I don't know but it seems like after long enough in the same spot, any bike theft becomes a crime of opportunity.

What's the occurance that people are just doing stupid things to secure their bikes vs. the occurance that someone wanted the bike just THAT badly and invests in lock smashing tools.