A "favorite in the mountains" to me is the same as "a favorite to win", unless one is wondering if a good climber, like a Virenque, can win a stage.

Ricco can win a stage. After a big effort to try to win the Giro only a month ago, it would be nearly impossible for him to hold form enough to contend for the win. Had the organizers not let Astana in at the last minute, Ricco would have won. Which shows you how good Contador is, although he does not seem to get his due from our BF "experts".

Cunego, Evans, Valverde, Sastre, and Menchov.

Sastre has demonstrated that when things get really painful, he's not really in the game. He does not have the extra gear. That extra gear is between the ears.

Cunego and Menchov have won Grand Tours before. So, they understand how it's done.

Valverde just had a big effort winning the Dauphine. Nobody in the recent past other than Lance has won the Dauphine and then the Tour (I recall people getting all excited about Moreau winning in 01 and 07 like he would be a Tour contendor. Not.) And while Valverde is an extremely good rider, he's not in Lance's class.

I think it's between Cunego, Evans, and Menchov. You can throw a blanket over all of them.