I'll admit, I can't add a lot to all the possibilities that have been already covered very well, but three thoughts do come to mind:

1. For the sake of competition and interest in the Tour, I'm hoping Lance ends up riding for anyone BUT Astana. My idea of an incredible Tour is to watch Armstrong face off against Contador, Valverde, Sastre, Evans, etc.

2. There is the slight (repeat, slight) change of that pressure from that German television station being effective - and whatever team Lance rides for automatically not being invited if ASO considers television coverage in Germany being that important. Yeah, Frenchmen knuckling under to German demands. Sounds too much like the latter half of the 19th century and the first half of the 20th. Very slight. But still a possible factor.

3. There's a chance that ASO flat out doesn't want him back, period. And they'll refuse to invite any team he rides for. Unfair? Not much worse than Astana not being invited this year.