[QUOTE=Roody;7611950]
You tend to underestimate the rapidity of large migrations in response to unpredictable economic and social forces.
No, I do not underestimate migration due to unpredictable economic and social forces. At this point, though there is trouble in the credit markets, resulting in an effect on other markets, there are not the economic and social forces to direct a move toward the inner-city.
I wish you were in charge of economic policy right now, since you seem to have a lot more confidence in your predictions, compared to the experts in Wall St. and Washington.
I'm not sure which predictions your are talking about. Most predictions I see are about short-term affects of our current situation. Historically, from what I've read, this is not the end of times as far as the economy of the US and the world is concerned. It may get worse before it gets better, but it will get better. There will be changes, but the extent of those changes remains to be seen.
You are so focused on economic and social factors that you're missing even more basic physical realities. It's very doubtful that the earth can continue to sustain personal motor vehicles of any type. At this point it's hard to imagine our lives becoming more complicated. Surveys reveal that people are becoming more and more dissatisfied with their lives in modern developed countries. The graph of prosperity and happiness apears to be an inverted "U" curve.
Personal vehicles will continue to exist. How they are powered and used may change. Yes, I focus on social and economic factors. Those are major drivers.
Um...have you read any newspapers in the last few months?
I read much more than the newspapers.
You might be right, but the UN predicts that population will soar to about 9 or 10 billion in the next 50 years, hold steady for a while, then begin a slow decline. Already birth rates are well below replacement in most of Europe and developed Asia. US population is growing only because of immigration. Birth rates in the less developed world are beginning to plateau.
Growth of metro areas is not dependent just on birthrates. Those forces that you mentioned that move large groups of people are not going to stop anytime soon. Jobs continue to be in metro areas and, as long as work remains in those places, people will move to areas where there is work. The issue facing us is less of one in which there is a move to the city, but of working with what we now have and making it work. Part of the solution may be more moving to the city, but its not an exclusive solution. Nor may it be a desirable solution.
Immigration has always been a factor in the growth of our country. Immigrant populations have higher birth rates, as do ethnic groups not immigrants which will continue to cause an increase in population. Yes, at some point, the world population may plateau. How declining birthrates affect populations and where they elect to live remains unknown.
The bottom line, though, is we are all bad about predictions of the long-term future. Even those who call themselves futurist get it wrong as much or more than they get it right.