Valygirl- yeah, that sounds like a good way to help isolate the problem. Do you think the handlebar bag would have a bigger efect than the panniers? On one hand, it`s very high weight, on the other hand, it`s closer to the steering axis. Either way, I`ll experiment and see. Sixteen pounds total for front panniers (without the bar bag) isn`t excessive, is it?

AlDownie- Um, that depends. When you say "bumbag", yeah that sounds like it could be what us Merkins call fanny packs. But the one in your picture looks more like what I would call a hitch hiker. No problems with tennies getting caught in the spokes?