I bummed a scale from a weight weenie backpacker friend and did some experimenting with known weights. For panniers alone, no barbag whatsoever, I got very surprising results. They feel good at ten pounds each, then go almost instantly to Flopville between ten and twelve pounds. It struck me as odd because first, I would have expected a gradual increase in handling efects, and second, I expected more weight before they gave me any problems. I know there are different loading strategies but 60/40 seems to be pretty common and 20 pounds (ten + ten) doesn`t come close to 60% of my load.

For barbag alone I did get a gradual increase in noticeable efect. I start feeling it at around five pounds but it`s still not too bad up to ten. I`m second guessing my estimate of eight pounds in the bag on my last trip- probably felt like more than it was, maybe because there`s no handle on top of the bag so I have to grab it in an odd way to pick it up. Any rate, I`ll try to keep that to a minimum in the future- wallet, camera, a few hours worth of snacks.

For the magic combo load, I came up with six, six, and three for a perfectly good load and I can fudge two pounds extra in each pannier or two extra on the bar and still keep it reasonable- I guess my weight estimates were off last time. If I get around to it, I`ll fix the rack to hold my panniers lower and further back, otherwise I`ll just deal with it as is. I still think I should be able to get away with more weight up front, but at least I have other options since I tow the BOB. And if I ever get a "touring bike" put together, I`ll buy rear panniers to go with it. Thanks for the advice, all.