one of the 3 times I have ever dropped my bike was 2 years ago in November. They said it would be rain until evening, so I didn't put my Nokians on, but it turned to snow at noon and I made it almost home. Almost nothing is worse than wet snow that cars have been driving on in just barely sub-freezing temps. The cars pack it to ice, and the temps are warm enough that the sun melts a thin layer of water over it. It's hard even to walk on it. Luckily that time my rear wheel went out, so I just skidded on my butt for 20 feet, got up and continued on my way.