Originally posted by John E
"Random events occur non-randomly." Punctures are not truly random, but they do occur in uneven patterns, and occasionally one hits a string of bad luck. I have had very good luck with Specialized Armadillo tyres, and even my Conti Ultra2000s have not been too bad. My nemesis is thorns.
Well random events follow a Poisson Distribution. The Poisson Distribution was developed by a german army officer to determine whether fatalities due to horse kicks (they had a potload of horses in the army in the 19th century) followed a random distribution or not. The Poisson Distribution shows that random events tend to be clumped. What that means is you can go without a flat for a while and then get 2 or 3 in a relatively short period of time. By the way, for those who are curious, Poisson proved that fatal horse kicks in the german army did not deviate from the random distribution. You can not PROVE that something is random, you can only prove that it does not deviate "significantly" from the random distribution.