I don't pay any damn attention to the weatherman any more. I only have one bike, and it has the studs on all winter. I dress for the 5AM temp and figure either it'll be warmer in the afternoon, or I'll just have to work harder to keep warm if the temp drops. I don't think the weatherman can tell if he's going to get wet with someone halfway through throwing a bucket of water at him. At least, not in Michigan where storms and fronts dodge and scurry all over the place as they cross the state.