Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Ozark Mountains
Posts: 121
Bikes: '64 Varsity, '69 Varsity, '71 Varsity, '71 Super Sport, '72 Super Sport, PX10 times 4, '72 Paramount, '73 Sports Tourer, '73 Paramount '77 Paramount, two NOS Pros
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With respect to C&V bikes in the above $750 category, my prediction would be a slowly deflating balloon rather than a bursting bubble. I think the age of enthusiasts is leaning towards “mature”. If younger enthusiasts don’t step up in numbers that offset us old guys, the market will slowly deflate (if prices merely hold steady over the next 20 years, it is actually a slow deflation). You see it in the car hobby. It used to be men in their fifties to seventies collecting pre-war cars. Now the new crop of guys in their fifties to seventies collect the muscle cars of the ‘60s and ‘70s. Harley-Davidson learned that a problem was on the horizon when their research showed them that even though sales were good, each year the average age of their buyers increased by one year. That creates a situation that can’t go on forever. Vintage bikes are collected for their beauty, the next rage will be “WIZZ BANG” technology.
I've been unpopular with other predictions too. Without exception I was told I was crazy in 2003 when I sold my house in California. I advised my friends to do the same. The chant back then was: “Real estate does not go down in value. The increases may slow down but that's it”.
I’m not in the hobby as an investment. I just love 531/ Campagnolo bikes. If prices fall, I can buy more bikes.
Kerry P