I'd take all the examples, and start with something conservative. Keep a diary of the temperature and what you wore. Note if you were too hot or too cool.

I'm not really big on cycling specific clothing, and my only recommendation is a windproof helmet liner and/or a balaclava. The windproof helmet liner I have covers my ears and makes all the difference in the world when I'm out. The only cycling specific things I have are my helmet and gloves, which are specialized subzeros. I have a habit of tearing these up a after a few months of use, but they have been the best combination of warmth and usability I've tried.