I'm rethinking the pannier packing and weight distribution on my Americano. On my last tour my rear wheel (dishless DT Hugi 145mm disc hubs to 36x14ga spokes to Dyad hubs) came severely out of true and I got 4 flats in 3000 miles on 37-622 Marathon Supremes. My front wheel (identical except 100mm disc hubs) has never needed truing for nearly 20000 miles and get flats only when the tire finally crumbles from overuse. It's a no-brainer that I'm planning to go back to 37-622 Marathon XR's.

The June issue of Adventure Cyclist has an article titled "Where to Carry a Load", which really didn't answer the question it posed. Its conclusion was that a low front load adds stability if your bike is designed for it and that you should experiment to see which load distribution works for you. Thanks alot. Pretty useless.

I lowered the mounting hardware on one of my two pairs of Arkel T-42's so that they ride enough higher on my Tubus Tara front rack (33 lb capacity) that they don't scrape on sharp turns. Each weighs 14 lbs. In addition, I have a handlebar bag that weighs 6 lbs and I am thinking about a saddlepack (Caradice or Jandd) that packed will weigh about 9 lbs. I know that adds up to a lot of gear, but I am comfort rather than weight driven yada yada.

After using a scale to weigh my front and rear loads (with my bike and rack, clothed and shod me, my loaded panniers, and me holding in my arms the 9 lbs that I haven't yet decided how to contain yet) my front load is 113 lbs and my rear load is 125 lbs - for a rear to front weight distribution of 111%. Compare this to my last more conventional touring setup, with four T-42 rear panniers, (109 / 155 lbs) where the ratio was 142%. Yes, I have slimmed down some.

This change, made possible by the elimination of superfluous gear and an upgrade from a synthetic to a down bag has allowed me to also eliminate my rear rack and panniers (6.5 lbs) - albeit with the addition of a saddlepack (2 lbs).

My question is this. What is wrong with this new setup? Is the bike more likely to be unstable in descents? Will the front tire slip more easily in the rain? Do I have a greater chance of going endo when hitting a pothole? Will the weight on the front and the force from a front disc brake (203mm rotor opposed to a tandem cro-moly fork) cause the front wheel to pop out of the drop outs? Anything else to worry about?