The change is pretty much proportional to your total bike and rider weight change. If you and the bike weighed 180 and now it's 170, then take 170/180 times the total expected ride time. If that's 180 minutes, then you might drop 10 minutes off the time.


http://www.analyticcycling.com/ForcesSpeed_Page.html

I've ridden the route six times and my best was 2:35 in 2006 when I was 53 years old. I won't be at the race, but I may give the route at least one more try this year, in hopes of a new personal best. It's not likely, as I get older, but you never know.

From one year to the next, the wind conditions are a major factor. A strong wind could easily change your time by 10 minutes or more.