Bicycle deaths on the rise nationally, study finds
09-24-17, 03:02 PM
#51
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Yeah, bicycles are generally operated by human beings. As are motor vehicles. There are your weak links right there just for starters.
09-24-17, 08:20 PM
#52
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09-25-17, 08:47 AM
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The numbers for Traffic deaths-motor vehicle deaths
has risen-2015 I think- for the first time in 30 or so years
The FEDS NHTSB blame distracted driving for the increase in deaths
According to them the rise is deaths is more than would be expected for the increase in miles driven.
TEXTING is the why-Distracted Driving is FED SPEAK for texting playing with electronic crap and other things
has risen-2015 I think- for the first time in 30 or so years
The FEDS NHTSB blame distracted driving for the increase in deaths
According to them the rise is deaths is more than would be expected for the increase in miles driven.
TEXTING is the why-Distracted Driving is FED SPEAK for texting playing with electronic crap and other things
09-25-17, 11:06 AM
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Wow, from that site comes this revelation:
67% of crashes are at non intersection locations. The site later mentions that 33% of crashes are at intersections, thus confirming that 67%.
This exactly opposite of what we've been told for so many years... that intersections are dangerous...
67% of crashes are at non intersection locations. The site later mentions that 33% of crashes are at intersections, thus confirming that 67%.
This exactly opposite of what we've been told for so many years... that intersections are dangerous...
2%? 10%?
Probably not 33%.
(So much statistics fail in this thread.)
Last edited by njkayaker; 09-25-17 at 11:13 AM.
09-25-17, 11:10 AM
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How am I overestimating the denominator? According to the article, 1 in 3 Americans ride a bike. There are roughly 330 million Americans, so why wouldn't I use 110 million?
Tell you what. Lets say that I exaggerated dramatically and the total is only 1 million Americans on a bike. That puts the probability at .08%, leaving us with a 99.92% chance of surviving the year without a fatal accident.
Are you happier with those odds?
Tell you what. Lets say that I exaggerated dramatically and the total is only 1 million Americans on a bike. That puts the probability at .08%, leaving us with a 99.92% chance of surviving the year without a fatal accident.
Are you happier with those odds?
Assuming 1 out of 3 Americans ride bikes, it seems likely that most of them ride bikes rarely.
Your naive risk is the result of being diluted the many people taking a bicycle out once in a while for a short ride.
(So much statistics fail in this thread.)
Last edited by njkayaker; 09-25-17 at 11:13 AM.
09-25-17, 11:12 AM
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Bicycle deaths on the rise nationally, study finds - The Morning Call
Excerpt:
"....
1st: Florida — 150 deaths
2nd: California — 129 deaths
3rd: Texas — 50 deaths
4th: New York — 36 deaths
5th: Louisiana — 34 deaths
12th: New Jersey — 18 deaths
13th: (tie) Pennsylvania — 16 deaths
13th: (tie) South Carolina — 16 deaths
..."
Excerpt:
"....
1st: Florida — 150 deaths
2nd: California — 129 deaths
3rd: Texas — 50 deaths
4th: New York — 36 deaths
5th: Louisiana — 34 deaths
12th: New Jersey — 18 deaths
13th: (tie) Pennsylvania — 16 deaths
13th: (tie) South Carolina — 16 deaths
..."
(So much statistics fail in this thread.)
https://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/pe...facts/bicycles
Last edited by njkayaker; 09-25-17 at 11:18 AM.
09-25-17, 11:13 AM
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Try to keep in mind that the Vehicular Cycling advocates constantly harped that intersections are the most dangerous place, and that overtaking collisions are just not that big of a deal... they said this for years... in fact their leader, whom I am not allowed to mention by name (he wrote a book called Effective Cycling) for years touted mirrors as a distraction and not needed by cyclists (in spite of the fact that he wanted cyclists to act like drivers of vehicles... and all other vehicles on the road have mirrors).
09-25-17, 11:14 AM
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09-25-17, 11:25 AM
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Also, what's different about the statistics of automobile deaths (and accidents) compared to those stats for cyclists?
09-25-17, 11:29 AM
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The VC advocates (some of them?) say that most people are most concerned with overtaking collisions but that overtaking collisions are rare. They also say that overtaking collisions (when they occur) are the most deadly.
in fact their leader, whom I am not allowed to mention by name (he wrote a book called Effective Cycling) for years touted mirrors as a distraction and not needed by cyclists (in spite of the fact that he wanted cyclists to act like drivers of vehicles... and all other vehicles on the road have mirrors).
And you completely avoided the problem in your comment.
Wow, from that site comes this revelation:
67% of crashes are at non intersection locations. The site later mentions that 33% of crashes are at intersections, thus confirming that 67%.
This exactly opposite of what we've been told for so many years... that intersections are dangerous...
67% of crashes are at non intersection locations. The site later mentions that 33% of crashes are at intersections, thus confirming that 67%.
This exactly opposite of what we've been told for so many years... that intersections are dangerous...
2%? 10%?
Probably not 33%.
(So much statistics fail in this thread.)
Last edited by njkayaker; 09-25-17 at 02:42 PM.
09-25-17, 12:23 PM
#61
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Can you take me with on a ride to this mythical place where so little time is spent in intersections?
(I spend so much time in intersections that even with autopause my average speed is horrible. Still faster than motorcars though.)
Grossly underestimating the numerator this time. Whatever makes folks feel better.
-mr. bill
(I spend so much time in intersections that even with autopause my average speed is horrible. Still faster than motorcars though.)
Grossly underestimating the numerator this time. Whatever makes folks feel better.
-mr. bill
09-25-17, 01:06 PM
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It's still almost certainly wrong.
Assuming 1 out of 3 Americans ride bikes, it seems likely that most of them ride bikes rarely.
Your naive risk is the result of being diluted the many people taking a bicycle out once in a while for a short ride.
(So much statistics fail in this thread.)
Assuming 1 out of 3 Americans ride bikes, it seems likely that most of them ride bikes rarely.
Your naive risk is the result of being diluted the many people taking a bicycle out once in a while for a short ride.
(So much statistics fail in this thread.)
If the homicide rate in your city is 1 per 100,000, then you stand a 1/100,000 chance of being murdered this year.
Of course, if you opt to engage in the drug trade with known gang members in bad neighborhoods between mindnight and 4 AM and flash a lot of cash, you're a lot more likely to be that 1 in 100,000 than some little old lady who watches TV all day and only goes out to get groceries at high noon on weekdays.
But none of that was included in the original statement. There is a difference between stating raw odds at the population level and discussing contributing factors or considering additional variables.
If you are given two pieces of information (number of bicycle deaths per year (X) and number of cyclists (Y)), you can pull out a perfectly useful statistic: A cyclist chosen at random stands a Y/X chance of being kiled in an accident this year.
While I'd agree that that isn't especially useful if the question is "How safe is cycling for me?", that question will require far more information and consideration of variables that the population level question.
BB
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09-25-17, 01:13 PM
#63
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Like you, I find limited usefulness if broad population statistics. I'm reminded of the old saw about the statistician who drowned in a river with an average depth of two feet.
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Just because I'm tired of arguing, doesn't mean you're right.
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09-25-17, 01:35 PM
#64
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You don't seem to recall correctly what was said.
The VC advocates (some of them?) say that most people are most concerned with overtaking collisions but that overtaking collisions are rare. They also say that overtaking collisions (when they occur) are the most deadly.
I think bicycle mirrors are fine but there is no data that they do anything to avoid overtaking collisions.
And you completely avoided the problem in your comment.
33% means that the risk of collisions in intersections are much, much higher than not in intersections.
The VC advocates (some of them?) say that most people are most concerned with overtaking collisions but that overtaking collisions are rare. They also say that overtaking collisions (when they occur) are the most deadly.
I think bicycle mirrors are fine but there is no data that they do anything to avoid overtaking collisions.
And you completely avoided the problem in your comment.
33% means that the risk of collisions in intersections are much, much higher than not in intersections.
I quoted the data from the site in a later post... that data said 67%of all deaths occured in non intersection areas, and 33% of deaths occurred at intersections. That is a total of 100% of all deaths.
This is also counter to the VC notion that more deaths happen at intersections.
09-25-17, 02:09 PM
#65
The Left Coast, USA
I am going to speculate that percentage of accidents and deaths will increase faster than the increase of riders. From encouraging some non-riders to ride, I've seen there is good reason why many adults don't ride bikes; they are simply unsafe, clumsy, inattentive and unfocused..and shouldn't be riding bikes. Their natural inhibition to be non-riders was a good choice on their part, think Darwin.
Maybe is would be a entirely different in a city like Copenhagen, but considering the dangers of riding in most US cities and burbs there are inherent reasons for some non-biking people to stay non-bikers, ..imho.
Maybe is would be a entirely different in a city like Copenhagen, but considering the dangers of riding in most US cities and burbs there are inherent reasons for some non-biking people to stay non-bikers, ..imho.
09-25-17, 02:35 PM
#66
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I am going to speculate that percentage of accidents and deaths will increase faster than the increase of riders. From encouraging some non-riders to ride, I've seen there is good reason why many adults don't ride bikes; they are simply unsafe, clumsy, inattentive and unfocused..and shouldn't be riding bikes. Their natural inhibition to be non-riders was a good choice on their part, think Darwin.
Maybe is would be a entirely different in a city like Copenhagen, but considering the dangers of riding in most US cities and burbs there are inherent reasons for some non-biking people to stay non-bikers, ..imho.
Maybe is would be a entirely different in a city like Copenhagen, but considering the dangers of riding in most US cities and burbs there are inherent reasons for some non-biking people to stay non-bikers, ..imho.
Many adults are simply unsafe, clumsy, inattentive and unfocused..and shouldn't be driving. Unfortunately, their decision to stay in their cars mean the risk of fatality for all road users remain high.
But people are fixated on blaming the victims of road fatalities on the victims.
When the number of bad drivers are reduced, so will the fatalities of cyclists, pedestrians, and motorists.
Last edited by Daniel4; 09-25-17 at 02:41 PM.
09-25-17, 02:41 PM
#67
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First and foremost, if you are going to jump in this late, read all the damn posts...
I quoted the data from the site in a later post... that data said 67%of all deaths occured in non intersection areas, and 33% of deaths occurred at intersections. That is a total of 100% of all deaths.
I quoted the data from the site in a later post... that data said 67%of all deaths occured in non intersection areas, and 33% of deaths occurred at intersections. That is a total of 100% of all deaths.
Again, cyclists spend much more time outside of intersections. If intersections were equally or less dangerous, the percentage of deaths should be much less than 33%.
Citation needed.
Last edited by njkayaker; 09-25-17 at 02:45 PM.
09-25-17, 02:46 PM
#68
The Left Coast, USA
Cyclists don't die on their own. Bad drivers smash into them as well as into each other.
Many adults are simply unsafe, clumsy, inattentive and unfocused..and shouldn't be driving. Unfortunately, their decision to stay in their cars mean the risk of fatality for all road users remain high.
But people are fixated on blaming the victims of road fatalities on the victims.
When the number of bad drivers are reduced, so will the fatalities of cyclists, pedestrians, and motorists.
Many adults are simply unsafe, clumsy, inattentive and unfocused..and shouldn't be driving. Unfortunately, their decision to stay in their cars mean the risk of fatality for all road users remain high.
But people are fixated on blaming the victims of road fatalities on the victims.
When the number of bad drivers are reduced, so will the fatalities of cyclists, pedestrians, and motorists.
Those of us that bike regularly will easily say the our good judgment and some skill has kept us out of bad situations. Some people don't have a lot of either, and they are statistics waiting to be read.
It isn't blame. I am a terrible dancer, but I have no shame about it. If bad dancing could get you killed, I sure shouldn't be talked into doing it, even by well meaning friends.
09-25-17, 02:50 PM
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The risk to a particular person is actually unknown.
Of course, if you opt to engage in the drug trade with known gang members in bad neighborhoods between mindnight and 4 AM and flash a lot of cash, you're a lot more likely to be that 1 in 100,000 than some little old lady who watches TV all day and only goes out to get groceries at high noon on weekdays.
The silly "1 out of 3" statistic is mostly comprised of "little old ladies" (people who don't ride bicycles much). If you ride regularly, your risk is going to be higher.
Yes, your "statistic" is "isn't especially useful" at all. It's actually not useful at all.
Last edited by njkayaker; 09-25-17 at 03:01 PM.
09-25-17, 02:55 PM
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Is the oddly excessive amount of time you spend in intersections true for everybody on average?
Also, it's possible that "per mile" correlates to risk better than "per time".
09-25-17, 05:07 PM
#73
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Let's add Parking Enforcement Officers as another victim of bad drivers.
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2017/09/25/tempted-to-abuse-a-parking-enforcement-officer-dont-even-think-about-it-editorial.html
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2017/09/25/tempted-to-abuse-a-parking-enforcement-officer-dont-even-think-about-it-editorial.html
09-25-17, 05:09 PM
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09-25-17, 05:20 PM
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Why are you only concerned with deaths?