Guys and Gals, time is flying by. It is the year 2016, and here we all are looking backwards at bikes gone by, manufacturerer's of which are mostly gone...

Four short years from now, a natural presidential cycle, what will we be discussing in the C&V lounge?

Will I still be herding cats as the Crapmaster?
How much will a basic, Japanese sports touring bike from the 80's sell for (pick a model)?
Will every other person in Portland, OR be a framebuilder, rack maker, bag maker, or brewer?
Will [MENTION=108582]RobbieTunes[/MENTION] still have a fetish for all things Centurion Ironman (bonus points: will chicks still dig you for owning one?)
Will [MENTION=137853]CHAS[/MENTION] still be correcting people who make obscure posts about things they know nothing about?
Will [MENTION=152773]noglider[/MENTION] be truly finished with is Raleigh International rebuild?
Who will be the next Troll Master?
Will we be wallowing in despair over the demise of early carbon fiber/plastic bikes?
Will steel still be real?

Discuss. Add any other questions that make sense, or not.

In 2020 I hope we all ride more not less.....

If the Chinese continue to devalue their currency the cost of a new bicycle could plummet. When a new bike costs $1200.... 2 or $300 for an older bike is a bargain. But if a quality new bike were to cost $600, what happens to vintage bike prices? I also expect to see disc brakes to become the new bike norm.

The year is 2020. Donald Trump is on his way to a second term in office. Rosie O is his VP. Vintage Japanese bikes have dropped completely off the C&V radar. No one cares about the past. Everyone looks to the future Which is.... The hover bike. To go fast you position in the drops to ride slow you stay in the hoods. To stop, off the saddle you go. Pedaling is not necessary. Pedals are lithium ion battery's, aka foot rests. Every other person in Portland is on unemployment, as their is no need for frame builders and rack makers. The new Chinese hover bikes come equipped with carbon fiber saddlebags. Robbie tunes hit the jackpot when he located a Miami vice centurion that had 10,000 dollars rolled up inside the handlebars and a 1/4 lb of blo in the flattened clincher. He purchased the bike at a police impound auction for ten bucks. Chas will still be the most interesting man in the Bay, with his hand built neon touring frame reaching the same type of fame as a Mario Confente among the few hard core C&Vers who have survived. Nogliders international project was finally completed, however it was stolen by a 50 year old drunk who cut his lock at the corner store, and it has yet to be recovered.

Will hover bikes also have electric shifting and disc brakes?

No need for disc brakes as they "hover" but eps.... Most definitely.

In the year 2020, people will have moved on from sending a box o' crap around the country to one another. The wheat will be separated from the chaff. Instead of sending crap, it will evolve into a box of goodies. It will have a philanthropic bent and be guided more by doing good, than by a bunch of desperate destitute vulchers trying to live on others castoff. Probably a minimum $100 donation to a cycling related charity to participate, each receipt of the "Box" will allow one to take out a single item. The Box o' goodies will be fun in that each successive entrant will take joy in putting in priceless treasures to torture successive recipients, "If I put in a Morgul Bismark frame, a MAVIC 845 long cage derailleur AND a Superbe Pro long cage derailleur, Dia-Compe NGC982 black cantis AND a VAR cotter press, what the heck will they actually choose not to choose in the box?" The joy will be putting in such rare and valuable items so as to actually torture future recipients. At the end of the season (presumably in late November) everything remaining in loot will go up on eBay and the proceeds will be sent entirely to the cycling charity. The notion of a box o' crap will be recognized as a monumental waste of time and postage.

Basic Japanese Sports Touring bikes will still sell for next to nothing if they carry a head badge from Miyata, Panasonic, Kuwahara, Azuki, etc. However, Centurions with stupid beautiful paint will have become cult items and worthy of grail bike builds. Many will be converted to modern triple/long cage Campagnolo 10-speed builds. The Campy components will be considered not quite worthy of the bike, but absent Mavic 8-speed triple/long cage touring components (which are unavailable after Tears for Gears won Powerball and attempted to buy EVERY single component ever manufactured), are roundly considered an acceptable, if unworthy, dress. Ironically, thirty-something cyclists migrate away from their fixies and begin to drive up the prices on vintage Cannondale and Klein frames, rediscovering the performance changing paradigm. As vintage aluminum fatigues and as all the software developers drive up prices of vintage USA aluminum it becomes cheaper to own a Porsche Boxtster than a Made in the USA hand built Morgul-Bismak, Klein or Cannondale.

Not every person in Portland, but 2/3 of the population in Boulder will work for either the marijuana industry, a frame builder, a bike recyclery, a brewpub or just studying at Naropa ("metaphysics doesn't come with a timetable…").
[MENTION=108582]RobbieTunes[/MENTION] reveals that his communicated love of Centurion's was a cover. He was trying to give pub to the unheralded WSI invented label to keep people disinterested from his true focus. In the decade from '10 to 2020 RobbieTunes scores tens of frames and bikes that were over $10k new. The world of high zoot
Pinarello, Colnago carbon become passé. He begins to actually become offended by actually how cheaply he's buying these epic epoxy frame/forks. He starts roundly blasting sellers via social media, many of whom are selling off their high end performance carbon to fund the purchase of vintage Centurions as prices sky rocket. Many Centurion buyers are speculators, the market becomes that hot. Robbie starts trading multiple carbon Tour, Giro, and Vuelta gran tour ridden frames for such things as Wraith frame/forks. One day Robbie realizes that he gets just as good of a ride out of his forgotten Centurions, a bit heavier, but realizes the hyper lightweight of his Wraith collection doesn't actually build as good of a bike. They became so light they were just inefficient and prone to cracking. Ironically, vintage Cannondales still don't seem to be failing due to the proscribed inevitable aluminum fatigue. One day [MENTION=108582]RobbieTunes[/MENTION] is riding a too light Wraith on a spirited century ride. He's having trouble keeping up with some Master's riders on vintage Kleins and Cannondales. They call themselves the Geezers. As they start to pull away on the climbs Robbie pushes himself perhaps way too hard. He beings to descend faster than he's comfortable after reaching the Col. On a harrowing and twisty descent the downtube/headtube weld on his frame fails and he can't stop at a STOP sign at the canyon road's end. He careens out into traffic and the scene is grisly. With part of the downtube impaling his person, he looks at the tube and recognizes the tell tale sign of rust on the thin wall steel tubing that corrupted the integrity of the joint. His last words were something akin to "curse you Mountain Bike." Bystanders articulate that it seems strange that he was such a hater of mountain bikes.
[MENTION=137853]CHAS[/MENTION] will have tried to browbeat those who don't adhere to cultish dogmatic cycling beliefs enough times that it becomes a "thing." Which in and of itself sparks a renaissance in vintage and classic cycling allowing younger cyclists to reconsider notions that the old timers accept as rote, but with a fresh perspective. Many of the "given" assumptions in classic and vintage cycling give way to a new breed of younger cyclists that haven't been inculcated into believing marketing hype and distribution driven drivel. As [MENTION=137853]CHAS[/MENTION] ages in his retirement home he becomes the poster boy of grouchy old cyclists, trying to browbeat younger cyclists with his "knowledge" and handed down on stone tablet experience. Most younger participants in what becomes C&V on the holonet find him quaint, and novel. Some build up ironic CHAS builds just to prove to themselves that vintage lightweight steel bikes don't make for good bikes. It becomes a "thing" to try and build the bestest lightweight steel bike with the bestest vintage components. Actual pro-ridden gran tour race bikes are collected ironically, and actually raced in what becomes known as a CHASterium. In these city block races one group races on the CHAS builds forsaking racing identifier numbers with actual dollar representation of the cost of their build. The second group races on Craigslist finds that are epoxy bikes or taiwanese aluminum from the holonet that had to be purchased for less than 100 Super Yuan. Nothing more than airing up the tires is allowed of this group. Not even fresh grease or new cables. Holovid websites become prevalent and holovid arguments trend as competing groups accuse others of dogging race results to stir the pot. Over time cheapo Taiwanse aluminum bikes and left over epoxy bonded bikes so significantly dominate the race results, all other things being equal, that any winning attempt on lightweight steel comes with doping and electro motor assisted accusations. It becomes "known" that steel does not build a better bike.
[MENTION=152773]noglider[/MENTION]'s Raleigh International is stolen and sold for scrap by a meth head. He swears off Raleigh altogether, and strangely then, antagnoistic of any label in the Accell group holdings, even though the modern nameplates have nothing to do with the vintage Raleigh. At some point he becomes so bitter and antagonistic that a Box O' Goodies campaign is started to actually fund sourcing him a proper Reynolds 853 Mercian Vincitore Special. At some point someone actually includes a vintage Raleigh International into the "box truck" with the goods for the campaign, it goes for sale on the auction site. Pics on the holovid make [MENTION=152773]noglider[/MENTION] suspect that HIS actual bike wasn't sent to salvage. He wins the auction and recognizes that it actually, randomly, is HIS old bike. He finishes the Raleigh International in January of 2021. He likes his mercy 853 Mercian better.

The term Troll Master in the Classic and Vintage community becomes an emotional loaded slang term for anyone that attempts to browbeat others with cult mentality groupthink completely divorced from real world experiential data points. That is the opinion of a person based solely on the shared opinions of other persons, none of which actually had any frame of reference or context based experience. The new generation of cyclists and those gravitating toward C&V seem to find the term ironic, and the community begins to develop a snarky almost hostile attitude towards those that don't think critically and articulate defying conventional wisdom to discover the Truth (capital T) for themselves. At some point it becomes difficult to tell, in a culture of anti-conformity to groupthink, what actually is actual experiential knowledge and what actually is just the brandishing of alternative perspectives. The Troll Master becomes the person that doesn't actually Troll, that just conforms to groupthink in a culture where groupthink is abhorred. Many cyclists are so turned off by the confusing euphemisms and connotative language of the C&V cult that they deliberately only ride modern hover bikes, "I didn't want people thinking I was on some transcendental journey of self-discovery and examination of what is necessarily true. I just wanted to ride my damn bike."

No one much remembers the Exxon Graftek, let alone wallow in despair over its lack of market success.

Steel bikes, and specifically the art bike niche, become status symbols of wealth, status, and wastefulness and disposable income. People riding steel bikes are considered tools by many cyclists, "why would he spend that many credits on a steel bike that has such a limited lifecycle in this salty sea air environment? To build such a beautiful bike only to see it gradually rust through and out is just an exercise in madness. He could have a Magnesium bike that was gleaned from seawater. Why even desire a bike that required gutting open the earth and raping the planet?"

Or not.

In 2020 I'll be retired, hopefully living in Spain at least part time and riding my classic steel bikes (and recumbents) in the Pyrenees and Picos de Europa. And I'll have completed my first PBP the prior year.

SP
OC, OR

Ye gods.

Will Yucatán and south Florida still be above sea level?

650b, low trail forks and large handlebar bags will be revealed for the snake oil they truly are........

The Trollmaster lives!

Why do you even bother posting here? Forget my PM about sending me the BOC, 4th edition (one month late). Go ahead and walk your walk, sell the stuff on eBay and don't bother comin' round here no more. It's obvious you don't like much about this group, and the feeling is mutual.

You're back on my "ignore" list, I only took you off for the BOC, 4th edition, figuring maybe you decided to re-enter society. I was obviously wrong.

And you will be hated by us, for jealous reasons only.

Being the pessimist I am, at first reading I thought the idea of a hover bike was a Hoover bike. Kind of the bike all the growing unemployed will be riding in 2020.

I actually enjoyed the pokes at me [MENTION=160550]mtnbke[/MENTION] wrote above.

I finished the International last night!

I've had dreams about getting back the first car I ever owned. Weird.

Hmmmm. In 2020 I will ride "metric" centuries like its no big deal, and will have a few full centuries completed by then. My flexibility will be improved and these 8 "extra" lbs. will be gone.


I will will have moved on to disassembling things like drum brakes, and 2 speed vintage kick back hubs (I will still think this sort of activity is "fun").

I will have attained every Masi Gran Criterium from our local CL.

In 2030 mountain bikes still suck.

I found it quite entertaining. For a moment I thought I was reading a Palaniuk book.

I can't predict next week.

My hope is that we'll be enjoying the latest recording by David Bowie and laughing about that time he staged his own death as publicity stunt.... but I'm not getting my hopes up.

In the year 2020, I will party like it's 1999! or something like that, heck it'll be my 70th year on this wonderful spinning dirt patch.

Bike related = maybe by that time, I'll run across a bike from my birth year (1951) that I can't live without. AND, I hope all you regular posters are still posting (plus some of those who have drifted) - even you "fork's bent", "anti-brifter", "trash picked Masi" people.

Oh yeah, I hope everyone with a tiny C&V business (freewheel cleaning, saddle recovering, bent wire tire savers, etc) are getting enough business to be rolling in the profits of your labor.

New fad for early full suspension mountain bikes...

Dude, chill the hell out. You started this thread poking the stick at me calling me the troll master with your personal attack. I had fun with it and responded in good fun crafting a silly narrative to the tune of your post/thread. So calm the hell down, and go ride your damn bike.

I once heard a vile expression that was something akin to "your autism is showing." I now understand why that expression was commonly in use before it became so repugnant. Take a deep breath. Don't poke fun at others and make veiled personal attacks if you have such thin skin or such limited social tools. It was all in fun (at least my side of it was). Stop taking yourself so damn seriously, and come down off your cross.

Yeah, but which ones? Front suspension XC racers, all-mountain, downhill, free ride, 50lb monstrosities or 16lb race bikes, 26", 27.5", 29ers, or 36ers? Are they all really mountain bikes at this point? Heck the original Repack race frames were beach cruiser frames weren't they?