Sirius1

So, looking at all these great old steel bikes makes me wonder: What do the long-timers feel will happen with C&V supply over the next 10-15 years? Are the number of "garage" or "dump" finds dropping? Will it be harder to find good 70s-80s examples (or older)? Prices increasing?

Or, will 90s and early 2K models start to be considered "vintage"? I'm not talking about carbon/plastic...they won't last. I'm referring to "real" bikes as it were: metal of some kind, like steel/alloy, Al, Ti, etc. I'm not up on current builders but know there are lot of custom/smaller shops out there now. Will it reach a point that things like Surly, Moots, 7, or any of the number of builders out there now will be "C&V" at some point? Or will it all dry up with pre-90s supply depleted?

After working with what I have, I'm afraid I'd be easily hooked by n+1 and building up old bikes, but don't have the time or $$$ now. I'd like to think there will still be something C&V available when I can get to that point. You know, like if you ever really do.

Just wondering what the consensus is out there.

Chrome Molly

The 80's classics are likely to be infrequent finds. The average home is occupied for maybe 40 years, so 10 years from now the dko garage sale finds will be rare.

I just did 40 on my team Miyata this afternoon with the thought that nothing with a ride like this bike has, has been made in the last 20 years. Steel bikes with such strong rear triangles haven't been made for a long while. Rides more plush than an aluminum bike, but not detached from the road like the latest CF offerings

CliffordK

The vintage aluminum bikes seem to take a beating in the used market. It is hard to say whether they will bounce back. There is a lot of stigma against them.

I think there will be a continuing market for steel frame bikes. I'm partial to lugged steel (mostly pre-90's).

But the TIG steel and unicrown bikes from the late 80's and 90's are good solid bikes, and may enjoy an increasing market.

As far as rarity, it is hard to say. One thing that seems to be happening now is that with a reasonably strong US economy and favorable exchange rates, the Europeans are dumping quite a few bikes onto the US market. That may continue, or could change at any time. Perhaps we'll see a reverse flow of bikes, with the Italians snapping up vintage Colnagos from the USA.

The strength of the MTB market from about 1980 to 2000 or 2010 has surpressed a lot of the 80's. 90's, and early 2000's road bikes. I'm actually a bit surprised with the number of that era of road bikes showing up on the used market. But, it may benefit the vintage market somewhat.

I'm also partial to the European or American bikes, but there seems to be a good healthy market for that Japanese bikes, although often not commanding a lot of money.

Spaghetti Legs 

They'll get harder to find. I'm sitting on a gold mine I tell ya.

*** that's what I tell my wife ***

Renngrrl

LOL Oddly enough my DH has no problem with me dragging him all over looking at bikes. Didn't bat an eye when I wanted to order a cotter press or other tools but he does give me the stink eye if I want to go clothes shopping.

I'm interested in the roadsters so I'm hoping they will keep popping up for a while. I still have room in my garage for at least one women's Raleigh superbe and maybe vintage dutch cycle like a big old gazelle. Then I'm done, really ; )

repechage

In ten years there will be Alumina Eroica, vintage enthusiasts of the time will complain about being excluded for not having aluminum framed road bikes. The ride's big pre event will be the best Cipo lookalike, so Cannondale bikes will sell at a premium to be repainted in Saeco team colors.

nesteel 

Production steel has been dead for a while, but custom has never passed away, and looks to have a bright future.

randyjawa 

Familiarity, Interest and Availability...

Years ago, when I started collecting vintage road bicycles, I published an article that I titled VINTAGE ROAD BICYCLE COLLECTABILITY

The only thing that will change are the people and the kinds of bikes that they will be seeking. Who would have ever thought that the BMX bike would achieve collectible value? Not me, that's for sure! But look at Ebay today. Lots of vintage BMX stuff.

And, as for aluminum bikes, they too will have their following, as will carbon fiber(if any survive long enough). It all comes down to why people collect and that won't change in our lifetimes.

Anyway, for those who wish to do so, read through the article. Even I found it to be interesting and still, pretty much, on target.

Actually, one thing will change. I will be the only guy left with original paint and art on his bikes:-)

plonz 

I'm wondering if vintage bikes trend like cars where the 70s and 80s for bikes are the 50s and 60s for cars. In this case, there would be a few classics pop up along the way but nothing like the 70s and 80s boom.

cycleheimer

The bikes seem to be getting harder to find. The really nice ones are really tough to find, unless you want to pay crazy prices for them....no pressure for a quick decision, since they don't seem to sell that quickly...unless they're Italian. The price for new bikes is actually pretty low, especially with some of the incredible online deals out there. Even shops have some great deals. The new steel frame bikes are pricey, though. Anybody considering a C&V bike should be able to do basic maintenance on it. This last point is critical, since most shops will throw crazy estimates at you when you bring an older bike in. It freaks people out. Plus, 27" tire selection is limited. Still available, though. If you want to invest, look elsewhere for places to put your cash. If you want to enjoy cycling, look for the best C&V bike you can get. Then ride it alot, and keep up with it's cleaning and maintenance.

OldsCOOL

I see the current "bike boom" tailing off at some point but lasting longer than the boom in the '70s prior to the switch to jogging and rollerskating (perish the memory).

Classic/Vintage will be newer () it is a fluid state as expected. When I first arrived here in 2004 I had just bought an '85 Trek 460 racer for 75.00 and posted in this C&V forum inquiring of the bike and value. At that time the bike wasnt really popular, desireable or valuable, it was just an old Trek. Not now.

My outlook is that the baby boomers are largely contributing to this current surge and who knows where this thing is going in the next 15 years.

Velocivixen

I'm not sure, but at the rate I'm wrenching on them, I'll grow old with permanent grease under my nails....

grayEZrider

I don't think today isn't a "bike boom', but more of an expanding market. Also the e-bike thing is becoming more mainstream and will increase general (and therefore c & V) interest along with it. While the e-bike expansion is now focused on off-road and sport riding, the expansion into more general daily use will bring strong growth to all the bike markets and those folks will add a lot of new buyers to "usable collections". And yes, I shamelessly admit to justifying my serious N+1 addiction and the profit motive when I begin selling them off at age 96.

Hey,,it's a solid thirty-year plan....

nlerner

In the future, V will become more so and C will become less so.

dunrobin

hmm mm. ..the Trump effect will likely lead to much higher oil prices this summer so I can see bicycles become a necessity for some. ..sorry McCarthy moment.

anyone can afford one really nice bike, if patience and appreciation are their virtues...

styggno1

Age group. Generation.

When a certain age group get money/opportunity their interest goes to what they coveted when not having money/opportunity (...when young).

Most collectors markets see this. Today and where I live 1910 to 1940 cars are becoming cheaper, pocket watches can be bought for peanuts, bikes from the same era is getting cheaper, etc. The guys dreaming of these are getting really old and actually dying. Next generation is not very interested as they have no connection to it = market for this era is down.

I am into 60ies to late 80ies stuff. Bikes, watches, etc. It is going to be the same.

Some very high end stuff always have its value and actually - very mundane "low end" also as no one has bothered to collect it and therefore it becomes rare after a long time.

I am sitting on quite a collection of watches that value wise are going up crazy at the moment. When I am to exit - who knows... might be in the same range as pocket watches today. Same with the bikes. As I am not collecting as an investment I could not care less.

If looking at it from an investment perspective - this is a good guide line:
Huge Supply + Huge Demand + High Public Awareness + High Prices = Potential Bubble
Low Supply + Low Demand + Low Public Awareness + Low Prices = Diamond in the Rough
Low Supply + High Demand + High Public Awareness + High Prices = Polished Diamond

It is written by a fellow watch collector that goes under the nick MSNwatch.

Add to this the generation factor and the forever important "condition, condition, condition-rule" it gets to be quite a guide line.

If viewing your hobby as an investment – keep worrying and ponder on the right time to exit. If not having an investor view on things - buy what you like, use it, flaunt it, be buried with it and do not bother.

gomango

Hate to say this, but everyone on our ride this morning rode CF.

Except for me. I had my Bilenky.

Two of these Diamondbacks.

There is so much CF out there now they will be tough to avoid down the road.





https://www.diamondback.com/haanjo-exp-carbon#

rccardr 

I ride regularly with a group of older/retired men and women. They ride hard, regardless of age. Most of them are on high end carbon, a few others on custom steel or titanium- Bedford, Spectrum, Moots, Guru, etc. So these are knowledgeable, experienced people who can afford to (and do) ride pretty much anything they want.

I'm the sole guy on vintage. The group is friendly & politely interested in my rides, but none of them are jumping onto the vintage bandwagon. Right age group, right financial situation, just no interest. So, there's that as a data point.

While I think there is some small percentage of young people with an interest or perhaps a curiosity in vintage bikes, as evidenced by the crowd at Eroica a month ago, as has been mentioned above most of the C&V crowd is, um...older. And unless there's a renewal of interest by younger generations, the whole price/supply ratio will only get less advantageous to sellers and more so for buyers. Which is why those $3500 vintage De Rosa/Masi/Colnago bikes are going begging.

Bottom line, I think, is buy now & enjoy now, but don't consider your two wheeled friends as an investment.

gomango

I hear this loud and clear.

Five years ago my friends were pretty interested in my c&v bikes, now not so much.

Or not one bit.

Salsa Warbirds, custom steel/ti randomly bikes or fancy, schmanzy mtbs are where they are at atm.

Most of them have changed their focus to gravel riding and are figuring out ways to criss-cross the Midwest using farm roads where they compete with the occasional Farm All or John Deere for road space.

They buy what they want and it seems an old Colnago is not where they are at.

Sirius1

Thanks all. I thought might be thought provoking.

No interest in investing. Not really collecting either. Well, maybe a little.

Just like the thought of working on older metallic objects that really look like "bikes". Not a plastic cartoonish version of that.

Just hope something like those left in 15+ years.

BlueDevil63 

Not really. Shinola, Rivendell, Ritchey, Kona, Raleigh, Masi, Surly, etc. etc. all make steel production bikes in significant numbers. Steel race bikes are rare but many bikes of other types are still made of steel in substantial numbers.

Grand Bois

Really? Then they abandoned and torn down? That doesn't sound right. I've never owned a house that was less than 50 years old. I don't think there is a house in this entire city that was built after 1965.

Shrevvy 

It is about relevance and nostalgia. How many of us rode steel bikes when younger? I know my interest in 1980s bikes is due to my growing up in that era. Thanks to this site, I am getting the bug to buy a bike I could never afford in the 1980s, but always lusted after. My disposable income has caught up with my nostalgia and I can buy today what I could not in 1988. If no one is riding a steel production bike with down tube shifters today, there will not be the same pool of buyers 20 years down the road.

Drillium Dude 

And at the end of the event, half to three-quarters will have suffered frame failures

DD

uncle uncle

I't's been mentioned before, but without an influx of younger buyers seeking them out, the C&V market seems on the decline. True, there seems to be less finds out there, but, there's not much interest in C&V stuff here... with fixie crowd/fad fizzing out, and the fixie crowd already finding an ample new market supplying them with, let's face it, more easily obtainable, easier to work on, equivalents of vintage 10 speeds, even this waning market is diminishing. Maybe the Erocia rides will inspire a different crowd to seek out C&V stuff, but the rides are sorta expensive, and few and far between, thus again it doesn't appear that they will encourage a new group of younger aged C&V collectors. Even collectibles eventually see their core enthusiasts (think 1900's to 1920 automobiles) age and pass.