looking for a price guide on newer collectable bikes

is there a guide on modern collectible bikes...like some of the felt cruisers

Like what?

Newer collectibles is almost an oxymoron unless you have a team bike with some provenance perhaps

But how new are you talking? Ask any of us on here what is C&V and our personal standards are all over the place. So far i have only dabbled in bikes from the late 80's to the mid 90's , and also regard my USPS Trek (pre Madone ) as an honorary C&V bike because it has a racing history.
Others would say my collection is "too new" to be CV as most were made in the brifter generation

Price guide for bicycles doesn't exist.
After MSRP on new bikes the field is empty - and for a good reason. The local markets are all too small.


Welcome to BF - sounds like you might be coming from the auto biz, eh Speedway.

No. The price of most any bike is simply based on the desire of the buyer to own it.

Look at "sold" prices on eBay.

It doesn't matter what anyone says anything is worth- it's how much people will actually pay for it.

Other than BikePedia and Bicycle Blue Book, I know of no database. Some flippers are now using BBB, with some success, because the buyers may not be as educated as the sellers.

General rule, MSRP plus 1/3 the cost of upgrades, less 25-33% the first year. 33-50% the next two years, and then 50-67% thereafter, with a "bottoming out" in general of 1/3 the MSRP after 5 years. Then, the bike enters a value "dead zone" until, if or when it becomes collectible based simply on the qualities of the bike.

Unique bikes, as others have said here, with provenance or a pedigree, well, that's a very small and subjective market, and I cannot address same.

Good luck with whatever endeavor it may be. If it's for profit, keep your expectations neutral. If it's to keep bikes on the road, people riding, there is rarely much of a down side.

Welcome to C&V.

"Modern collectible" is an oxymoron.
Only time will tell if that once new/now old bike is uninteresting worthless obsolete old junk or an interesting and valuable adjunct to a "collection" of otherwise similar obsolete old junk. That's assuming that anyone will "collect" any physical object at all in future decades.

For investments think: Compound Interest.

-Bandera

I have no idea, and at least with cars, bristle a bit when a yet-to-be-released or just-released car is deemed a "future classic." It hasn't lived a day in it's life and here is the current thinking telling us in 30 years what its fate will be. And with a future classic label, it's almost a mandate to "never drive that car" and thus, it is never used for its intended purpose (going fast, being enjoyed). I couldn't tell you about Felt Cruisers' collectibility in the future. You will have some people here that are knowledgeable about cruisers in general. I think many more people will care about race bikes than cruisers in the future as the generations growing up now have a different set of bikes they find desirable.

If anything, what will be collectible in the future? Roughly the same thing as it always has been: high-end expensive race bikes that have survived after 25 years. They start off expensive, drop precipitously in value over at least five to ten years, ride in the trough of Nadir of Value and then pick up after about 20 years. Bikes and bike models ridden by grand tour riders will be worth money, etc.

I think a super valuable bike is one you enjoy looking at, caring for, and riding. I understand, to the point that I can, the collectibility mindset. But really, do you want to forever store a bike in the hopes that decades (decades!!) later it will be as valuable or more so than when you bought it? Ehhhhh, doesn't sound fun. Buy to use, to look at, to enjoy. Future values may come, or they may not. There are many other monetary pursuits that consistently yield better returns than a bike over 10-30 years. Find a bike you like, buy it, and ride it. It's what they're for!

By what dark art of Divination does one "look" at future selling prices for our now "modern" machines in the decades to come?
Is an inflation index for the future bit-currency and it's conversion rate to '18 $$$ included in this sorcery as well to calculate return on investment?

-Bandera

My idea of a "collectible Felt" - their top dog aero bike: the AR FRD (alphabet soup special....)

I know I know, black matte carbon. But...those "tubes" are WINGS!

Start one.


Seriously, if you see a need that no one else is filling, go for it.

Oddly enough the manufacturers already provide such a service, it's called a Price List.
Gathering all of them from every mfg for each machine produced every year into perpetuity and: Done!

-Bandera

i guess its hard to gage a price..i appreciate the replys

Most collectibles are produced in small numbers and are usually made of steel. Why not start with some of the best in handmade steel bikes? You won't have to rely on a crystal ball.

Collecting objects of any sort for future "collectible status" is a blind grope into an uncertain future affected by unimaginable tides of events and an assumption that the nostalgia, whims, fashions and economy of decades to come will bear a close resemblance to ours now. Betting $ now to acquire and store specific inventory on that bet is a leap of faith that strains credulity.

As always, suit yourself.

-Bandera

Probably easier to ask what people think is/will be collectible.

At one time a reasonable answer would have been: "Lance's TdF winning Trek."
Whoever paid big $$$$ for it then would probably disagree today.

-Bandera

Do you seriously doubt that a JP Weigle or a Richard Sachs will be collectible in future? I don't think there's much blind or grope about the answer to that question. And I'll bet that a Rene Herse or an Alex Singer that's collectible now will continue to be. But once you stray from the obvious classics, sure things get uncertain very quickly. Who ever thought telephone insulators would be collectors' items? Certainly not me.

Lance is infamous , --- anything with his stink on it will likely continue to have value.

He went from hero, to supervillain almost overnight and is now trying to re-invent himself as a podcaster.

I have to begrudgingly admire his tenacity

Of course I doubt that any object acquired at what are arguably peak prices, like the current Herse/Singer $,$$$, will appreciate indefinitely and that an uncertain future will include a collector culture that mirrors the current niche market for such objects will exist. Betting hard $,$$$ to acquire an object at the top of the current market and storing it for decades on the assumption that when millennials and younger might "collect" it at a premium for a net positive gain is a very long shot.



-Bandera

All I said was "collectible," never made any claim to indefinite appreciation. However I doubt the future, either of the culture or the economy, is quite as uncertain as you imply. I'm more inclined to think things will continue more or less much as they are, at least as far as appreciation of classic bicycles is concerned, while you seem to be implying the dystopic world of Mad Max & Blade Runner is just around the corner.

Assuming continuity in culture and economy in a rapidly changing environment isn't a lesson of history.
In 1929-'38 the culture and the economy were not exactly "more or less much as they are" in 1925-28 in the US, or '39-45 was to the depression years much less 2018-?.
Betting hard $ to acquire any object assuming that change, often radical unpredictable change, will not render that object an uninteresting relic of an obsolete unfashionable past instead of a rare valuable asset is a long shot in my book. Ivory handled buggy-whip and Penny-farthing hoarders might disagree while waiting for that big come-back/payoff.

As always, suit yourself,

-Bandera

Ultimately, what something is worth comes down to demand, coupled with scarcity. Some vintage bikes are valuable, because they were coveted by (many) folks in their youth, that now have the means to buy them. They find there is a finite, and small supply, so they have to pay accordingly. Once those folks pass on, the prices will almost certainly fall. Other things can be extremely rare, yet worth almost nothing. Early computers from the 60s? Room sized, and cost millions (back then). There are probably only a handful left, and they're probably not worth more than scrap prices.

401K's and stocks take hits too. The housing market dumped. The cool thing about bike is they are more than just collectible. You can get your moneys' worth just by riding, everything else is gravy. But there are instant collectibles also. The big names that have stood the test of time are a decent bet to at least get your money back it you go high end. Cinelli, Colnago, Bianchi, DeRosa, Pinarello, even Mercian that is unique in that is one of the last to use a stone hearth to heat frames for brazing like pizza is nowadays, haha....The Cinelli Starship, Bianchi Le Eroica are decent examples. And don't forget there was a fixed/track gear boom. IMO 2009 was good year for fixed, like wines have years, LOL.