ebay auction snipers
04-24-09 | 06:24 AM
#76
Hoopy Frood
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 457
Likes: 1
From: Los Angeles
Bikes: Trek 7.3fx, Peugeot PX-10, Fuji Roubaix Pro ('04), Cannondale R600, Triumph Roadsters, Raleigh 20, Univega Nuovo Sport, Schwinn Sierra, Bianchi Osprey, Peugeot NS-22, Batavus Champion, Haro Pulse.
Guy's!,
My snipe was set for 5 seconds before close, but the service seems to 'hiccup', as I said, when I'm bidding for things that are exceptionally undervalued. In the case of the red Torelli, the hiccup was a snipe placed at 40 seconds before close.
The service apologized when I brought it to their attention and offered me 3 free snipes but I'm still thinking that maybe the winner was a friend of a guy at the sniper service. Get it? Much easier to find good prospective auctions by following the requested snipe sheets of frequent bidders than it is to surf Ebay manually, right?
My snipe was set for 5 seconds before close, but the service seems to 'hiccup', as I said, when I'm bidding for things that are exceptionally undervalued. In the case of the red Torelli, the hiccup was a snipe placed at 40 seconds before close.
The service apologized when I brought it to their attention and offered me 3 free snipes but I'm still thinking that maybe the winner was a friend of a guy at the sniper service. Get it? Much easier to find good prospective auctions by following the requested snipe sheets of frequent bidders than it is to surf Ebay manually, right?
Originally Posted by Gixen FAQ
How close are your snipes to the end of the auction?
5 seconds or less. And yes, it can happen that your bid is submitted (too) late, or not submitted at all due to technical or other problems. This happens rarely, but nevertheless, it happens. Update (March 30th, 2007): You can greatly decrease the odds of your snipe being late or not submitted by subscribing to Gixen Mirror service. Gixen Mirror is the most reliable sniping service you can possibly find. While still not impossible to happen, no Gixen Mirror subscribers have ever missed their auction due to Gixen malfunction. We work hard to keep this record or reliability.
5 seconds or less. And yes, it can happen that your bid is submitted (too) late, or not submitted at all due to technical or other problems. This happens rarely, but nevertheless, it happens. Update (March 30th, 2007): You can greatly decrease the odds of your snipe being late or not submitted by subscribing to Gixen Mirror service. Gixen Mirror is the most reliable sniping service you can possibly find. While still not impossible to happen, no Gixen Mirror subscribers have ever missed their auction due to Gixen malfunction. We work hard to keep this record or reliability.
04-24-09 | 06:52 AM
#77
SNARKY MEMBER
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,829
Likes: 2
From: South Austin
Let me put it this way: fuzzy logic is desirable in autonomous systems for a reason. Since sniping programs don't offer that kind of intelligence, I find it necessary to supplement them with my own.
Sweet Lou, I don't think I said anything that is very difficult to understand. I don't generally aim to buy bikes for what I think their highest possible market value is, I want to buy them under value or at least at the low end of that range. Given the structure of ebay auctions and the use of sniping, it's impossible to gauge the true interest of other buyers until the last few moments. I don't think your dismissal of the influence of other buyers is wise, and I invite you to reread what I wrote. If you're buying a bike to flip it, and you're expecting to sell it for $400 in your local market and have decided it's "worth" $220 to you then we can say you expect to make a profit of $180. Now, if somone comes along and snipes your snipe @ $225 you may be able to hit back manually at $230. If you win, then you have defeated another automated snipe and you get to make $170 vs. the expected $180 rather than being left with $0. On the other hand, if the other bidder manages to respond, then you know there's another human out there and you can back off to avoid a bidding war. Your estimation of it's worth may still be $220, but by having the flexibility to compromise on that valuation at the last minute you retain almost all of the expected profit. Now perhaps you would suggest that I should be willing to bid up to $390 in this circumstance, or should pick some arbitrary price in between--and I would respond that given the structure of an eBay auction vs. a live auction it is not structurally advantageous to do so. You end up paying more, as the price is bid up before others are dissuaded, or as snipes come in.
That said, I'd prefer to let this go. I don't want to get into a religious war between classical and behavioral economic models.
Sweet Lou, I don't think I said anything that is very difficult to understand. I don't generally aim to buy bikes for what I think their highest possible market value is, I want to buy them under value or at least at the low end of that range. Given the structure of ebay auctions and the use of sniping, it's impossible to gauge the true interest of other buyers until the last few moments. I don't think your dismissal of the influence of other buyers is wise, and I invite you to reread what I wrote. If you're buying a bike to flip it, and you're expecting to sell it for $400 in your local market and have decided it's "worth" $220 to you then we can say you expect to make a profit of $180. Now, if somone comes along and snipes your snipe @ $225 you may be able to hit back manually at $230. If you win, then you have defeated another automated snipe and you get to make $170 vs. the expected $180 rather than being left with $0. On the other hand, if the other bidder manages to respond, then you know there's another human out there and you can back off to avoid a bidding war. Your estimation of it's worth may still be $220, but by having the flexibility to compromise on that valuation at the last minute you retain almost all of the expected profit. Now perhaps you would suggest that I should be willing to bid up to $390 in this circumstance, or should pick some arbitrary price in between--and I would respond that given the structure of an eBay auction vs. a live auction it is not structurally advantageous to do so. You end up paying more, as the price is bid up before others are dissuaded, or as snipes come in.
That said, I'd prefer to let this go. I don't want to get into a religious war between classical and behavioral economic models.
The real problem is you have to get in the last word. This is best shown by your statement "I prefer to let this go" while you continue to post your opinions. I have that same problem. That is why I use a sniping service.
04-24-09 | 06:57 AM
#78
Hoopy Frood
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 457
Likes: 1
From: Los Angeles
Bikes: Trek 7.3fx, Peugeot PX-10, Fuji Roubaix Pro ('04), Cannondale R600, Triumph Roadsters, Raleigh 20, Univega Nuovo Sport, Schwinn Sierra, Bianchi Osprey, Peugeot NS-22, Batavus Champion, Haro Pulse.
Your logic escapes me completely, I guess that is why you call it fuzzy logic.
Wikipedia: Fuzzy Logic
Fuzzy logic is a form of multi-valued logic derived from fuzzy set theory to deal with reasoning that is approximate rather than precise. In binary sets with binary logic, in contrast to fuzzy logic named also crisp logic, the variables may have a membership value of only 0 or 1. Just as in fuzzy set theory with fuzzy logic the set membership values can range (inclusively) between 0 and 1, in fuzzy logic the degree of truth of a statement can range between 0 and 1 and is not constrained to the two truth values {true (1), false (0)} as in classic predicate logic.[1] And when linguistic variables are used, these degrees may be managed by specific functions, as discussed below.
Seattle Robotics: What is Fuzzy Logic?
If you believed the item was worth a maximum of $200 when you first bid, that shouldn't change based on others opinions. If you bid an extra $5 where does it stop. It stops when you get to your real maximum. You're fooling yourself.
What's so hard to understand about something vs. nothing?
Where does it stop? Given the time frame, it's more or less impossible to answer snipes manually more than once, if you can do it at all.
The real problem is you have to get in the last word. This is best shown by your statement "I prefer to let this go" while you continue to post your opinions. I have that same problem. That is why I use a sniping service.
So far as saying "I prefer to let this go..." -- well, that post was somewhat brief by my standards. (I can be very long winded.) So this was my way excusing myself for not making a point by point response. FWIW, I find it much easier to walk away from an auction than a thread. Now, I would prefer to let this go--I poted a brief response to Lou's rather exhaustive critique and then tried to let it drop. I suppose now you'll try to use this response as evidence for this assertion that I must have the last word. I'd merely point out that you addressed me directly, and when asked pointed questions I respond.
Last edited by gamecat; 04-24-09 at 07:21 AM.
04-24-09 | 07:08 AM
#79
SNARKY MEMBER
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,829
Likes: 2
From: South Austin
There is a place in Blanco, Tx that sells really good apple pies, but they are really expensive. Every time I drive by there, I have to decide whether I want a really expensive pie or no pie. I usually decide on no pie and life goes on.
By the way, I know what fuzzy logic is, but I also know what people label fuzzy logic can generally just be called "I don't know, but I am going to tell you anyway, reserving the right to change my mind."
By the way, I know what fuzzy logic is, but I also know what people label fuzzy logic can generally just be called "I don't know, but I am going to tell you anyway, reserving the right to change my mind."
Last edited by CardiacKid; 04-24-09 at 07:19 AM.
04-24-09 | 08:23 AM
#80
Senior Member
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,213
Likes: 8
Your looking at it from all the wrong perspectives. A guy at the snipe service thats friends with seller? Fold aluminum foil hat, place in closet.
www.esnipe.com
www.esnipe.com
I did say from the beginning that it sounds a bit over the top and I knew it before jumping in.....
04-24-09 | 09:24 AM
#81
Dolce far niente
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,710
Likes: 33
From: Southwest Idaho
I can appreciate what you're saying but is it really so 'out there' to think that a worker charged with watching over a sniper site might be bored enough to play this kind of a game?
I did say from the beginning that it sounds a bit over the top and I knew it before jumping in.....
I did say from the beginning that it sounds a bit over the top and I knew it before jumping in.....
Typically, there is a big warehouse-type building, filled with little sectioned off secure (usually padlocked chain link) cubes. You rent your space, drop in your equipment and do your thing. The site offers big-time security and connection to large amounts bandwidth, but the only folks that are there are the front door security and the odd website tech doing an upgrade or other tweak.
__________________
"Love is not the dying moan of a distant violin, it’s the triumphant twang of a bedspring."
S. J. Perelman
"Love is not the dying moan of a distant violin, it’s the triumphant twang of a bedspring."
S. J. Perelman
04-24-09 | 09:26 AM
#82
Hoopy Frood
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 457
Likes: 1
From: Los Angeles
Bikes: Trek 7.3fx, Peugeot PX-10, Fuji Roubaix Pro ('04), Cannondale R600, Triumph Roadsters, Raleigh 20, Univega Nuovo Sport, Schwinn Sierra, Bianchi Osprey, Peugeot NS-22, Batavus Champion, Haro Pulse.
Your logic escapes me completely, I guess that is why you call it fuzzy logic
04-24-09 | 04:29 PM
#84
Thrifty Bill
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 23,645
Likes: 1,109
From: Mans of NC & SW UT Desert
Bikes: 86 Katakura Silk, 87 Prologue X2, 88 Cimarron LE, 1975 Sekai 4000 Professional, 73 Paramount, plus more
I've got a concern with auction sniping that might seem a little out there, but from my own experience, I'm thinking there might be something to it:
I've begun listing with the sniper service these days, only within an hour of the auction end. After having lost a series of auctions with my sniping service 'mistakenly' placing my snipe 30-55 seconds early. Seems that every time this happened it was on auctions that were significant bargains and I would lose by a hair each time. (The last straw was a red Torelli Cyclocross in full DA that sold for $325; which via the Ebay report would've been mine had the snipe gone through right).
I've begun listing with the sniper service these days, only within an hour of the auction end. After having lost a series of auctions with my sniping service 'mistakenly' placing my snipe 30-55 seconds early. Seems that every time this happened it was on auctions that were significant bargains and I would lose by a hair each time. (The last straw was a red Torelli Cyclocross in full DA that sold for $325; which via the Ebay report would've been mine had the snipe gone through right).
My proxy bid was around $12, I won the item at 99 cents. I wouldn't doubt that someone looking at completed auctions would jump to the erroneous conclusion that they could have won those shifters for $1.04.
Last edited by wrk101; 04-24-09 at 04:32 PM. Reason: typo
04-24-09 | 09:27 PM
#86
Junior Member
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 14
Likes: 1
this thread has come far afield from where it started, but fwiw, i use BuyerTools Reminder for sniping. it's a nice graphical, freeware, windows (only?) program which has worked well for me. requires you keep your computer on of course.
features include: grouping bids such that a successful one deactivates all others in the group, adjusting how many seconds before auction end to submit bid, importing your "watched items" list from your ebay acct, etc. highly recommended.
features include: grouping bids such that a successful one deactivates all others in the group, adjusting how many seconds before auction end to submit bid, importing your "watched items" list from your ebay acct, etc. highly recommended.
04-25-09 | 01:17 AM
#87
Old Skeptic
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,044
Likes: 9
From: New Mexico, USA
Bikes: 19 road bikes & 1 Track bike
How do you know the maximum bid that the winner placed? Although the item "sold" for $325, the winner may well have placed a proxy bid of $500 or more. I often "win" auctions well below my proxy bid, as I always place my proxy bid (through esnipe of course) at the maximum value the item has for me. Often I will win at 50% or less of my bid. Is there an ebay report that shows the maximum bid placed by the winner? I would like to see that report. The last item I won was a set of NOS shift levers.
My proxy bid was around $12, I won the item at 99 cents. I wouldn't doubt that someone looking at completed auctions would jump to the erroneous conclusion that they could have won those shifters for $1.04.
My proxy bid was around $12, I won the item at 99 cents. I wouldn't doubt that someone looking at completed auctions would jump to the erroneous conclusion that they could have won those shifters for $1.04.
I too have lost auctions for what would seem only a single incremental bid. However, being familiar with the buying power of some of the more frequent (often Japanese) opposing bidders, I know that their maximum bids could easily have run hundreds of dollars over my own modest highest offer for a small item.
Sniping mainly benefits bidders. It helps me to evaluate in advance precisely how badly I truly want an item, and then I seal my bid accordingly. It helps to eliminate a frenzied bidding war volley which is often simply fueled by bidders egos.
That is something which you can really witness at live art auctions. I imagine that certain collectors later kick themselves when they come to their senses and realize how much they have in fact spent after being sparked by opposition from an acquaintance who they simply despise and are determined to beat. But, I've seen the same phenomenon on eBay between two Japanese rivals, each with excessive spending power.
04-25-09 | 05:14 AM
#88
Senior Member
Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 13,973
Likes: 145
From: Tampa, Florida
I lost a BB auction by $1 but did I? My maximum snipe bid was $35 and the winning bid was $36. I have no idea what the wining bidders maximum was so upping my bid by $1 may have upped the others bid by $1. Before you know it the price is $100 because you get caught up in the frenzy. Using a snipe program and 'walking away' preserves my bid which is what I felt was its true value. In my opinion, if someone out bids me, they over paid.
