What bikes of today will be lusted after in the future? Put another (crass) way, which bikes of today would be a good investment?
Would it be a limited edition pre-fab collectible like the Colnago Master 55:


Or the Schwinn 70th Anniversary Paramount?

How collectible are/were the Anniversary edition Paramounts? For that matter what ever happened to the 60th Anniv? I remember the 50th with the black and gold scheme. Are they worth a lot more than a normal Paramount from the same era in similar condition?

Anyway, neither is really a "bike of today". Those "retro classic" models cater to guys (like many of us) who still lust after what we wanted 20 years ago.

So maybe a modern über bike like a Pinarello Dogma, Trek Madone, Specialized Tarmac, Cannondale Super Six, Giant TCR etc?

Or from a boutique builder? Pegoretti, Seven, Crumpton, Vanilla, Indy Fab, Serotta, Waterford, Dean, Richard Sachs, Calfee, Peter Mooney etc etc etc?

Or (gasp!) an all NJS track bike, assuming the fixed gear fad won't go away?

Anyway, the reason I ask is because I saw that Colnago and my first thought was to buy one and hang it up on the wall as an investment -which is totally out of character for me. I normally believe if you buy a bike, you should ride the wheels off it. But when I saw that bike, I thought about how it would go up in value so I should keep it pristine. Anyway, this will never get beyond the thought experiment phase since I don't have the money to spare right now...

Maybe I'm crazy, but I don't see bikes as true investments. I think you go after bikes you love and want to ride, and if others set a market for it and make it valuable, bonus. At the fundamental level, I think all collector's markets are bogus unless you're buying...in which case you'll pay through the nose if it's something specific you want.

I don't think there are very many bikes that would be easily sellable for more than what they cost (adjusting for inflation). Also, from what I;ve seen...the bikes are really only super valuable when in amazing condition...and if you;re going to ride it regularly, you;re not going to keep it in that condition. I won't bother with a bike I don't plan on riding...which is what a bike is meant for in the first place.

The handbuilt stuff (like the aforementioned Vanilla, Sachs, Mooney, etc. plus Davidson, Della Santa, Land Shark, Moots, Parlee, and a number of others) will always have a "collectible" value for their craftsmanship. Beyond that, there aren't a lot of mass-produced bikes that hold any great significance. Perhaps the Madone as it's associated with Lance. You'll probably get the age-old argument about carbon deteriorating over time and therefore losing any collectibility. That may be true to an extent, but I don't buy into it as a generality. A well-made bike is a well-made bike. As such, they'll always be timeless. But collectible? I guess only time will tell.

Collectible value, perhaps, but still not much of an investment, wrt return on one's money.

Collectible to some, but not to all. That's why we still find these nice bikes for cheap. WE value them but they are sold every saturday at yard sales by those who don't care.

What about something like the Trek Y-foil? It was a radical design, later outlawed for competition by the UCI, and they only made it for a few years.

I will suggest Lemond bikes with a delineation for the Trek year models.

Think about the bikes we now consider collectible, only from a 30 years ago perspective. They were hard to find, hard to purchase, somewhat mysterious, and desirable in some non-descriptive way. Also think of what they were not, which is that they were not much different from the bikes we did own and buy (unlike, say, how a Shelby Mustang is *quite* different from the Mustang your neighbor has).

So Pegoretti and Vanilla have a good shot, maybe even a Colnago C-40 in the Mapei paint scheme.

I would agree with the early Lemond bikes and Trek Y Foil (and add the Chris Boardman-era Lotus 108), but if I understand the original question, it's more what you can buy new today? And yes, we probably ought to distinguish between "collectible" as an objet du désir and "collectible" as something that appreciates over time. Not sure I have an answer for the latter unless God forbid one of fine contemporary builders goes the way of Confente.

Not exactly current, but not exactly vintage, the Cannondale V framed mountain bikes will be one of the most sought out bikes in the future IMHO... esp. the super V bikes

As an investment strategy, complete bikes would be less than unbuilt frames and matching forks.

The Colnago and Schwinn cited are probably overpriced to begin with, just like the Campagnolo 50th group with case was when it was new. It took a long time for it to appreciate beyond its initial price.

If one wants to make money, I would think of things equal to Steel TA waterbottle cages, back in the day CHEAP, now EXPENSIVE. They take up little room, and the investment cost is minor, in initial cost and space to store. Think, handlebar tape, cables, brake shoes, even tires, Chains, chainrings and cassettes, stuff like that have much better profit potential. But much less fun to own.

Not a bike, but I bet a full, boxed, Di2 group will be a major collector's item in 20-30 years. The way I see it, it'll either be remembered as the group that changed everything, or as an amazing piece of technology that never quite caught on (both of which collectors love!)

I question whether even it's mother could love that abomination.

I'll throw a current production bike out there:
Rivendel

Well known enough that most people will have heard of one, hard enough to actually buy that most people have never or at least rarely ever seen one in person. Plus the owner/designer/specifier has a history with a different brand with collectability and mystique before doing his own thing.

Buy one today, if you can, and wait and see if I called it right or not.

Titanium

I do really think alot of the Japanese custom/NJS builders will be collectible down the road. Alot of these builders are master craftsmen and are building exquisite frames. Kalavinka comes to mind.

Also JP Weigle bikes for sure.

But, as others have mentioned the real value, as far as resale goes, will be new old stock parts, in box. Di2 was mentioned, probably also boxed Super Record 11 gruppos.

A guy in our local bike club rides one of those.... he paid some ungodly amount of money for it... I want to say 4,000 dollars but I might be wrong.

Bianchi Milano Parco: a classic utility-style design with an Italian performance style mixed in.



These Pashley roadsters are timeless, quality machines that incorporate a nice mix of modern technology with old style craftsmanship and design.

They're not vintage, strictly speaking, but to me they have "classic" style all around, and good quality too. In the years to come I expect them to be sought-after machines.

I agree and it's a reasonably priced bike for now. A different realm than a Peg. for sure.
Look at Bridgestone, they plain just went out of bussines but it's the way that it happened.
I've yet to see an RB1 not fetch 5 to 7 and they're not even vintage and not the best.

...or Dura-Ace 7800C *carbon* cranks.



...or Campy Record *red printed* brifters.



...or maybe those ridiculous Oakley over-the-head things from a few year ago

Pashley Guv'nor

That Kona road bike with the chrome lugs.

20 years from now when all the 20-somethings are going through their mid-life crises, the PistaDex will be through the roof for clean, unmolested examples of the Bianchi Pista, or those with choice upgrades, like an Aerospok or Son rims, a cut down riser bar, and plaid top tube... Extra bonus points if it has actual courier provenance.

Carbon Treks, "like Lance rode." As more and more of them pile on the miles and crack or show join lines, nicer examples might start appreciating.

I would say it's hard to predict. We've been over this before, and the same factors that drive collectibility will drive the collectable bike market.

Collecting as an investment involves scarcity of the item, speculation as to the rise in it's value, and can it be liquidated to realize a return.

Value for the money has no part in that situation, and that is still, IMHO, the driving force of C&V, besides an underlying appreciation for bike craft. The vast majority of bikes we discuss cost less than a Zipp wheel on a TdF TT bike.

I think C&V people like "underrated" bikes as much as the obvious winners. In that regard, my guess is that in 20 years, a Kestrel will be a C&V bike. We'll just have to see if they hold up.