We all know that at some point prices on these C&V bikes are going to spike ridiculously high. Back in the 90's, no one wanted the 70's bikes, and they sold at yard sales for next-to-nothing. Or so I hear.

Well, these bikes have started to get popular, and there are fewer and fewer about (no thanks to Drew). Prices are starting to get ridiculous. Ebay is the best example, but other than the occasional good deal, craigslist and garage sales are drying out.

Is this the end of the C&V era? Have we passed "peak oil," and now are decling into a world of $500 *** gaspipe framesets from the 70's? $350 UO-8's? $1000 PX-10's? $200 Varsities?

Or am I just tired and bored and broke in the winter?

-Nick

all of tthe above .

its all about what's in and what's not. right now, vintage road bikes are in because people like the retro styling.

look at the mountain bike market though-- it's pretty much where road bikes were 10-15 years ago. there were so many crappy road bikes made in the 70s that prices bottomed out because your average consumer couldn't tell the difference between a fancy schmancy bianchi and a bike boom free spirit. now interest in road bikes is high, so prices are becoming more appropriate. meanwhile, the mountain bike fad is over so even really fancy and nice mountain bikes go at garage sales for about the same price as their wal-mart kin.

We haven't peaked yet....

1. There are alot of bikes out there....alot. What we see pass through C&V and Ebay and CL is only the tip of the iceberg in regards to numbers.

2. The economy sucks. And it'll continue to suck for at least another year. Unemployment is at unprecedented highs, real estae continues to be a big anchor on the economy.

3. When things get better, there will be alot more disposable income out there. Alot more. More money = more demand = higher prices.

I'd say we've got a ways to go.

I think you see the current trends, but they are not universal. From Old Fat Guy I just got a UO-8 without any of his special treatment (he didn't overhaul it to sell the the local college kids), for $35. Everything was there, but the brakes and derailleurs had been swapped out for SunTour. They were all very wiggly, so I swapped those out for my left-over Shimano 600 6207s. Crank was sound, but needed overhaul, so I overhauled and at the last minute decided to swap in my left-over again Shimano 600 6207. Pedals are some quill-style MKS mainly aluminum, with Christophe toe clips. The old wheels were mismatched and not original, and the 27 inch tires were totally dead. I used my (again) Shimano 6207 based clincher wheels with 700c Mavics and a Shimano 600 6-speed cluster. A left-over Sakae stem was cut down a bit to fit the French steer tube, and some SR handlebars with 105 brake levers. Only thing missing are quick release triggers. I fine-tuned the SunTour calipers, and they fit the 700c well. The saddle is a V-O Swallow clone that was waiting for a home.

Problem was the fork, it had a bent steer tube. A local shop (y'all will know some of the techs if I tell!) straightened it, and I de-ovalized the thread area, until the headset and the stem slipped on well. We must have got it right, because the headset adjusted correctly (there are several threads about this by now on BF).

Result is, I have a nicely rideable UO-8 based city bike, and with the low (31 mm) trail, I can explore using a front rack and bag. Total expenditure around $40 due to a large amount of parts on hand. She needs paint, and if I like her enough, maybe she'll get oxalic'd and touched up.

So the opportunities are not dead, but I also have a basket -case PX-10 that cost north of $200 (I didn't know anything!), but it does have all its original parts short of a seatpost.

Jets is right, I got a early 90's Specialized Hard Rock for nothing, and it is lighter and stiffer than anything else I have, great frame and a base for some great build options.

On the economy, I'm afraid I'm a "doom and gloomer." I don't think bike prices can't be sustained where they are now on C&V stuff. The "new frugal" economy should work it's way into bicycles. I'm hoping to pick up a nice roadster for $25 (or $500 of the new dollars)

However, if C&V stuff continues it's upwardness, surely some mfg'r will build something to a true classic design. There has yet to be a light, springy 3 speed sportster of modern build. Does no one "get it"?

I'll chime in and say prices are down for high end vintage from where they were 3 years ago. They'll come back up I'm sure.

Alot depends on the area banjo mole. You're in a pricey region as far as bikes go.
The economy's bad there, it is all over but certain markets remain consistant in accord with that given region. Comparitively speaking.
I'm beginning to see more 700wh. bikes, even brifter ones; they cost more but they're better than the 27' wheel ones that were more abundant & went for less 2 years ago. It'll peak in a few years.

well... it could happen, but to build it to a true classic design you need to start with a lugged frame. Add a few bells and whistles and the sustainable MSRP of such a thing would be close to $1.5-2k...

with all the fixie crowd hack-sawing bikes, and the weathering of neglected bikes, the supply of high end good shape frames will be much less. Same with components. Dura Ace 7400 prices is just the tip of the iceberg. I expect more "lesser" SIS stuff that works with 126mm spaced frames to go through the roof sooner than later. And the 600EX or the tricolor Ultrega 600 (with the EX being a better set of components) are prime candidates for move. Campy and Suntour never got indexing right until 130 mm frames, so shimano stuff will be well desired.

I sell vintage road bicycles all over the world. For me, there are no area concerns. And prices have skyrocketed! And prices will continue to climb.

Make no mistake about it, the vintage road bicycle interest is real, growing and here to stay. Of course, as interest grows, so does demand but the supply will always be constant or diminishing. Thus, it becomes a simple math problem: Greater Demand + Shrinking Supply = Higher Prices. Additionally, the guy(like me) who cannot afford a top dog will happily settle for a lesser but still very rideable bicycle.

I have watched the number of items fluctuate on Ebay and the numbers of daily offerings has gone from roughly 3500 to as much as 15,000 at times. And those numbers are not coming down. I see that situation as a pretty good yardstick to use when considering vintage road bicycle increasing values.

Finally, I keep a record of all bicycles found but not acquired. And lucky I did. Bikes I passed on in 2007 are now selling on Ebay for a couple of hundred dollars. And guess what? I reviewed my records, went back to previous locations and bought up as many of those bicycles that I could.

All of the above is my opinion, of course but I am pretty old so I am likely right:-)

2.5 K is possible, only a few choices, VERY few. I know of some. $2000's, even fewer out there save for Rvdll, 1 or 2 other. The lugged aspect's the obsticle. None are mass produced and never will be. Unless India gets into the game. Lugs themselves are vanishing.

You bring up a point that I've often wondered about. Does anyone have order of magnitude numbers for how many "vintage" bikes are out there? Never mind the boutique houses or customs. Just good, solid lugged Schwinns, Miyatas, Raleighs, Treks, etc. etc. For example, in the heyday, what would have been the annual production of Miyata 210s?

I think the economy and a broader sense of environmental responsibility have converged to help make vintage bikes desirable. They're bargains, they're durable, they're easy to work on, and they're a reminder of simpler times. Then there's the fashion factor. More than once recently I've done a double-take at a vintage bike in mainstream advertising.

Lugged bikes used to be mass produced all the time, so it is possible to produce a lugged bike for lower dollars.

Also as much as I like lugged, a 3 spd roadster as mentioned could certainly be tig welded with good results.

The key is if there is a market in the general public, not just C&V afficionados, so that cost can come down.

here is a graph



and a link from where it came from with much more info including charts by country

Lower end but nice MTBs-meaning chrome Moly frames and roughly Deore or LX components-have gone up-ebay- maybe 30% -70%in the last 2 years.
Trek 800's/820/830's(straight gauge chrome moly) would ebay in 2007 for roughly $80-$90 delivered in 2007.Now they are more like $150.
Trek 930/950 (DB Chrome Moly) would be about $150 delivered in 2007-they are more like $200 and change now.
Usually these bikes need some tuning and maybe new cables etc.Nice enough MTBs are still available on CL for under $100-like my $70 "Paramount" mtb series 30 chrome moly frame-nice riding.Nice bike-really cheap, LX components. Don't picture it appreciating-with that splatter paint job-any time soon.

The MTBs make more sense-functionally- as urban/suburban/trail bikes than 700c or 27" bikes.Big tires are more forgiving on crummy potholed city streets, and if you have to bail out to a sidewalk or lawn they are much better.

However, functionality doesn't have much to do with C&V desirability and price. Older baby boomers are probably the ones paying big $$ for 1970's vintage road bikes.Japanese collectors also seem to be willing to pay high prices.Sold some Campy parts to japanese buyers-good price.
Nice road bikes will probably hold their prices pretty well. I don't know about $900 Peugeot Mixtes, BUT...

Charlie

EjustE, thanks for that link. If you look at the production chart just for the years 1970 to 1990, even assuming maybe only 10% of those would be of interest and allowing for a reasonable percentage scrapped, you're still talking about a very large number. Which I guess was MiamiJim's point.

Are you sure?

https://cgi.ebay.com/YETI-CARBON-FRAM...item19b7795d37

https://cgi.ebay.com/Classic-Vintage-...item414a531711

Just in the last few months, I noticed that the supply of good classic components have been dwindling at the auction sites. Seems like we are reaching the bottom of the barrel with many components with much trashed "vintage" stuff dominating the market, and NOS becoming rarer and rarer every month that goes by and whenever they do, it's like a feeding frenzy with the thickest of wallets winning all the time. I myself had been biting the bullet lately and just getting components I need with price now being a second priority, because the one you might be looking at might be the last of at the price it's going for if you do not get it, so waiting sometimes isn't are good option.
If only I started looking for these components a couple of years ago before prices started to go up on everything. Every good high line NOS classic derailleur these days gaurantees prices well above $100 now (Even NOS Cyclone MkIIs are starting close to $100 these days!). I even saw an NOS Simplex Super LJ RD with a price set over $240 this week.....for a Simplex???! personally, I wouldn't even consider paying that much for a (much more desirable) Mavic SSC "Erector" RD!
If anything, maybe the now elevated prices could encourage more classic component "hoarders" to sell good stuff that they are just hanging on to and someone else that might be restoring a bike can really use.
JMOs

Chombi
84 Peugeot PSV
85(?) Vitus Carbone Plus 7

$12000 for a MTB frame???
I thought the $2000 one was extreme-$12000 **********

Why?
MTBs of any vintage just aren't as "pretty" as road bikes of 1970's 80's vintage. The thin tubes and nice lugs are just more appealing than cobby MTBs.
Charlie

That is insane for that Yeti Carbon... Well there goes the lack of
disposable income theory

Thankfully, I have kept all of my MB's from 1983 (3 of them)

I wish it would have been my Yeti frame




Johnnybee.

ebay provided a market that was not there before, a bike was hard to show a wide audience.

ebay has gotten greedier over the years, fees, paypal, owning paypal, less 10 cent listing days, where a surge was always to follow before, and less demand, heck I have not bought anything in over a year, almost two off ebay. More big price, more buy it now with an accepted best offer.

MTBs are like the less attractive brother or sister of Road bikes........you know the kinda heavy one with the "nice personality"...
Although there were MTBs that did catch my eye once in a while because of their mechanical complexity, I think they will never invoke the same passions I developed for classic road bikes.

Chombi
84 Peugeot PSV
85(?) Vitus Carbone Plus 7

I think the hoarders are hoarders and will always be hoarders.

Perfect example: I have a friend in town who worked for a bunch of local bike shops here in the I-5 corridor, eventually managing a Performance location in Washington. He's been in the bike biz for awhile. And he finally let me in his basement. I about died. Boxes full of first-gen through 7-speed Dura Ace, tons of 600/Ultegra, more Suntour stuff than I knew existed, and what made me cry the most, 5 full NOS boxes of various Shimano Sante groups. Campy stuff too. He wouldn't even let me look at that pile.

I tried to buy just a few things off of him. Nope. He loves early generation D.A., and some of the 7-speed stuff, so he just keeps all that NOS in repose, waiting to fix up his vintage bikes. Knowing he'll never have to worry about tracking down dust-caps, or compatibility issues.

Will he ever even use a fraction of this stuff? Heck no. Will he ever sell it, despite my pleading offers? Not so much.

I suspect there are many NOS-hoarders that will never come off their gear until it is A) forcibly removed or B) divided up for an estate sale later.

It is getting to the point though too that old bikes are becoming the closest to "NOS" many people get. I am amazed at how many minty Suntour-equipped bikes are around here.

I definitely agree on the point that retro and vintage is in, but I'm not so sure on the mountain bike point. Depreciation seems to hit mountain bikes a bit faster than road bikes in part because suspension technology is still evolving - so more bikes become "obsolete." I definitely would not say that the fad is over, by any means, or even that mountain biking is a fad at all.