Back to the OPs question.
I don't agree with the previous posters who flat out said "NO". I much prefer a "Maybe". If you're referring to a rare Trek, Specialized, Centurion, Nishiki, etc. Yes, IMHO, the rare, well known bike brands are constantly increasing in value as are the rare, upper end components.
If you mean all rare bikes are becoming more valuable, then my response is NO, not true. I have a fairly rare Mirella with full Campy drive train. It's worth a few bucks, but if it was a celeste Bianchi of the same original value of the same era, it would be worth quite a bit more. Few have heard of Mirella, a few care about them.

I am curious as to what the difference is between the vintage road bicycle crowd and the vintage road bicycle want-to-be crowd is? I always thought that the ticket for admission to C&V was nothing more than interest.

I guess you never can tell.

To the OP who has (or held) interest in motorcycles, I experienced something odd , to me at least, last summer:

I have a 1984 Suzuki GSX 750 SE Katana motorcycle. Not particularly old, but interesting in that they were never imported to the states, and that they featured a unique flip up headlight, much like your old Honda Accord.

I know of 3 in the states besides mine, so that makes it reasonably rare.

I'd seen pictures as an impressionable youth and swore to one day own one. After watching evilBay for many, many years this one came up, and I sprung on it. I was one of 3 bidders. The final price was surprisingly (to me) low.

Just on a whim, last summer I put it up on the block with a very reasonable (to me, again) start price. Not one bite.

Why was I one of only 3 bidders on the initial ebay listing? Because nobody knows about them. Every dealer I go to looking for parts tells me that "Suzuki never made a Katana in 1984".

I was flabbergasted, but I also learned a valuable lesson: Popularity sells, obscurity does not.

Why do I think this episode is odd? Because to me, the 84 Katana's are the holy grail of motorcycles. Nothing sexier has been built by anybody, before or since. It is the pinnacle of motorcycle styling. But not everyone shares those feelings.

A lesser bicycle from a well known maker will typically command a higher price than a superior machine from an unknown maker, especially so to untrained eyes.

Just my .02.

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Phrase Guide:

Valuable implies it was worth something when it was new, otherwise it’s just old.

Rare implies that you can't find it easily. This is not necessarily a bad thing.

Desirable means that people like it, but aren't willing to pay for it.

Collectible implies that someone else wants it, and that it will bring more money then it was originally worth.

One of a kind involves misguided spray cans. Synonymous with "restored."

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Buyer warning symbols:

Desirable Unopened Masi & Paramounts = DUMP
Collectible, Rare Atala Parts = CRAP
Bianchi, Urago, Legnano & Lambert For Sale = BULL
Schwinn Hollywood - Impeccable & Tiptop! = companion to "BULL"
Huffy = Self explanatory.

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Applying this new knowledge:

One of a kind, valuable, rare, restored, desirable collectible implies that you have just read the ad copy of a Craigslister, and that the item concerned is neither valuable, rare, desirable, restored, one-of-a-kind, nor collectible.

Avoid sellers full of Bianchis, Uragos, Legnanos, Lamberts and Schwinn Hollywoods that are in Impeccable, Tiptop condition.

-Kurt

This statement was not intended to offend.

Someone who is reasonably well versed in the acqusition, building and use of a vintage road bicycle is a member of the vintage road bicycle crowd. The person who is looking, probably on Ebay or Craigslist, for their first vintage road bicycle is a member of the want-to-be-crowd.

I make this distinction, as a result of selling hundreds of vintage road bicycles on-line. More often than not, those new to the interest, will fail to ask the right questions that will help to ensure he, or she, gets the bike they hope for. The wanna-be will, more often than not, pay more than he or she should for a bike. And the wanna be is the person driving prices up so quickly these days.

Again, not an intention to offend anyone who is or wishes to be a vintage road bicycle enthusiast.

As I mentioned, at the onset of this thread, I have already given this issue some thought. The quote above is taken from an article I wrote for MY "TEN SPEEDS". The article is titled VINTAGE ROAD BICYCLE COLLECT-ABILITY and pretty much states what some other Forum Members have alluded to in this thread.

And for those of us who do have something high end and rare, keep this thread in mind. My guess is that one day you might be impressed with the value that your obscure bicycle has attained. My opinion, of course.

Recognize - I like - How much?
 

As I mentioned, at the onset of this thread, I have already given this issue some thought. The quote above is taken from an article I wrote for MY "TEN SPEEDS". The article is titled VINTAGE ROAD BICYCLE COLLECT-ABILITY and pretty much states what some other Forum Members have alluded to in this thread.

And for those of us who do have something high end and rare, keep this thread in mind. My guess is that one day you might be impressed with the value that your obscure bicycle has attained. My opinion, of course.

Good analysis, Kurt!

There are certain things I like a lot but am not willing to pay much for, as I tend to be frugal. That's the attribute of desirability that Kurt describes. Pantographing and such are works of craftsmanship that have no bearing on how the product functions. Functionality, in bikes, is measured by usefulness, performance, reliability, and durability. These four attributes are most important to me. Aesthetics are also important, but it comes fifth, for the most part.

I have a bike with almost all 70's and early 80's Campagnolo Nuovo Record components. There, I paid a premium for aesthetics, but it's also durable and reliable stuff. Components really don't affect performance much. Performance is mostly guided by the tires, the weigh of the rims, and the frame. The rest of the bike pretty much just needs to roll without breaking. Friction in the bearings, for example, hardly weighs into how efficient the bike is at transferring power.

So I'm just as likely to buy an offbeat brand that performs as well as something famous. My almost-all-Campy bike is a rare McLean, made by a guy who only made custom bikes. It's rare because he only made a few, and he died at the age of 29! So it's also rare and collectible, but I bought it in 1984 when it was neither. I wouldn't pay a premium for either of those attributes. I'm lucky, though, and glad I still have it. I'm not sure it's valuable, though.

Last week, I bought a bike to flip, an early 90's Nishiki Olympic, made in Taiwan. It's not top of the line, but it performs pretty much as well as a top of the line bike of that era. If I bought it for myself, I could conceivably buy it as my best bike, because it rides so well. Since I'm mostly functional-minded, this type of bike is really all I need. I don't collect or ride or trade for the sake of high value. But to each his own. If you like the bling, then, by all means, collect, buy, and trade the bling.

Similar to the Nishiki, I recently sold a Schwinn Prelude. It, too, wasn't top of the line, and it didn't even look pretty. But damn, did that bike ride well! I call it a sleeper. It wouldn't turn heads, but it made a lot of happiness between the legs, so to speak.

I've always thought value is in the eye of the beholder. For example, I have two Paramounts...a chrome "71, and an '82 Paramount Elite. According to the Waterford site, approximately 3,300 Paramounts were produced in 1972...so I'm guess the number was similar in '71, perhaps a little less. Conversely, according to an email I received from Richard Schwinn, approximately 200-400 Paramounts were produced by Waterford in 1982.

So, based on numbers alone, my '82 Paramount is much more rare (and was much more expensive...$3,500 in 1982 dollars...:eek:). However, if I put both of my Paramounts (which are in basically the same condition) on Ebay at the same time, I'm guess the '71 is going to be the more valuable one...as the '82 lacks the panache, the "bling" if you will, of the second-gen Paramounts...

"...wouldn't turn heads, but...made a lot of happiness between the legs, so to speak. " Sounds like an old girlfriend of mine...

Well, to go off track slightly.

Is this rare?

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2684/...a9305588_o.jpg

I am assuming it isn't valuable. Quick releases rarely generate much excitement.