Unlike many Forum Members, I did not own, or even ride, a road bicycle in the seventies and on. I started my road bicycle career/interest/avocation about ten years ago. But that is another story...

I used to restore antique motorcycles. Rare was valuable then and now. However, when I first got into vintage road bicycles, and started selling what I found, I found that rare was a negative factor when $$$ value was the issue.

If the bicycle, or component was not well known and praised, it was pretty much worthless, ten years ago. A vintage entry level Bianchi would be worth a bundle, while a lovely old Canadian Marinoni would be passed over, with little ado.

I am not saying that the Marinoni would not sell. What I am saying is that the lesser bicycle, the Bianchi, would sell for more $$$.

Today, I see evidence that this has changed significantly. Rare bicycles are becoming more accepted by the vintage road bicycle, and vintage road bicycle want-to-be crowd. Has this trend made itself apparent to anyone else? And, if so, where will it take the vintage road bicycle interest?

I'm not sure what the word rare really means anymore. If we consider English a living language, E-blow has turned the word "rare" into something that means roughly "the." Don't believe me? Do an ebay search of the word rare.

Around here, rare does not always equal valuable. Buyers are drawn to the common brands that everyone knows, and will pay more for them. Examples such as Trek and Schwinn. Similarly equipped bikes without a common brand sell for less.

Many buyers I see for vintage bikes are looking for a style, or appearance. So details like a nice headbadge, cool decals, interesting lugs, and chrome sell bikes. So a low end Raleigh can sell for more than a midgrade Univega.

It's a complicated equation. Is value determined by price, or is it the other way around? For someone to pay money for something, they have to understand it; so the fewer people that understand something, the fewer potential buyers-- and the lower the price.

Among collectors of American coins, one of the 'holy grails' is the Confederate half dollar. No one knows how many were made, but last I heard four were known to have survived. That's enough for them to be in the coin books, so just about every collector knows they exist, but hardly anyone has actually seen one. The result is they're quite valuable. On the other hand, unique coins -- of which only one example is known-- are comparatively common, and not necessarily worth much.

Did you see a recent "Pawnstars" episode where they bought a 1942 Sarolea? Thing was so rare(only 5 in the US) it would've been almost impossible for them to refurbish it. They did make a profit at the auction, though.

Not yet, I don't think, but I hope that it will change.

I have a '74ish Rauler, which is serial #11. They were a sub-contractor and pantographer for Colnago, and my bike has Colnago pantos on the fork tangs, with the Rauler panto on the fork crown. I doubt that there's another bike like it in the world. I've never even seen reference to a Rauler prior to the late 70s. Theoretically, it may be exactly the same as an early 70s Colnago and far more rare. That being said, I think that it would be lucky to fetch half of what a similar Colnago would bring.

Don't even get me started on my Billato or Cherubim/Echelon. I seem to attract these bikes (which are great bikes for the money, btw).

It's all supply and demand. Low supply plus low demand means low, and often erratic, pricing. I see this with Worksman bikes. They're uncommon, but you can see them put up for fairly low prices and not sell, too.

Another example is foreign bikes which were not imported into the US. They're rare here, but not valuable.

Rare definitely doesn't have to mean valuable. I constantly look for musical instruments. There are tons of 'rare' instruments out there that don't necessarily command a premium. Some are rare simply because there didn't need to be many of them or some quality of them limited their production. The Gibson Style O guitar is an example of an instrument that while gorgeous and a fairly innovative piece, they don't command a premium simply because they don't produce a widely liked sound. Harp Guitars..... there just weren't many people playing harp guitars. They're rare and can command a premium among harp guitar players, but by comparison to similar standard guitars of the same era.... not even close.

rare doesn't mean desirable, but desirability can make something rare.

Value, and rarity, are not dependent.
Rather, "value" is inexorably tied to the concept of desirability.

Eg.,
I could personally build a one-off rattle canned gas pipe road bike with 20" steel wheels in my basement...
- If rarity were the determinant, its being one-of-a-kind would make it far more valuable even than your 1950 Hetchins Experto Crede.

(Let me know if you disagree, and I'll start taking orders)

+1.

I'm not really a dealer as such, I just find old bikes and ride them. If I don't want to ride it for whatever reason, I find someone else who wants it and pass it on. Value? To me, the value is in the utility. I can see paying a little for a recognized name, but then again a lot of the time the name recognition came about due to the company putting out a good product.

good point.
I have a Jan de Reus bike, as far as I can tell there are probably 2 or 3 known to be in the US. Rare? yes valuable? not really. Its a good dutch bike, but even in the Netherlands they don't command a premium price.
Then there is Zieleman, rare? fairly, only 235 were imported into the US (according to Ko Zieleman), valuable? they are becoming more so, both here and in the Netherlands. As a builders reputation grows so does the demand for his/her bikes.
Ultimately it depends on how well known, and desirable the bike is, Confente is legend and due to his untimely death his bikes are rare and command very high prices.
Marty

In the case of a commodity/item with widespread appeal...gold, diamonds, etc. yes.
In the case of esoteric items without widespread, universal appeal, no.

I bought a Univega Ultraleggera on ebay about 5 years ago. The first auction didn't meet the buyers reserve. He put it up for sale for $75 for a buy it now sale. I snagged it because I could immediately see the quality of the frame. Made of Tange Prestige tubing and having Shimano dropouts I would put this frame on par with any steel frame made in the early 90s. I have searched for info all over the internet and have not seen anything or seen any pictures of another. For all I know my frame could be one of a kind or only one of a handful. I did get info from a catalog. The bike equipped with Shimano Dura Ace sold for about $1900 in the early nineties. In my opinion the frame is every bit the quality of such frames as, Paramounts or Merckxs, made during that period. Those frames are very common and usually sell for $400 to $600. There is no way my Ultraleggera would get even close to that much because nobody really knows much about it. I have to just consider myself lucky enough to have found a gem that has not gotten much notoriety.

Never.

Have you noticed how "rare" certain Murray or Huffy products are? It doesn't make them valuable; nobody wants them.

On the flip side, Schwinn Paramounts are the antithesis of "rare" - they're literally "coming out of both ears" in the C&V world - in all forms. It is easier to find a 1930's Paramount track bike then any other track bike of the era. While Paramounts are, therefore, quite plentiful; they are outrageously "valuable" - more accurately, overpriced - despite this.

Same applies to PX-10's, which are probably even more common.

-Kurt

Heck, sometimes "rare" means it was a dud to start with....Remember the "Kirk Precision" cast magnesium framed bikes??
It must be rare because the company did not last too long. CF and AL pretty much killed it because there was no weight advantage that went with the high price compared to two then also new materials. Even the lighter steel (753 and then latest Colombus tubsets) frames were giving it a run for their money. I wouldn't say a Kirk will be cheap to buy today, but I could have been much more expensive if the concept made more sense.
JMOs

Chombi

+1

I was going to say coveted = valuable, meaning its all about what someone wants

Now, rare can make something coveted, but my very limited experience in the C&V bike world has shown me that rare very often means not widely known (and therefore coveted) which means not widely valuable outside of the niche market that does know about it. And, rare but widely knows often has the very unfortunate reality of being worth more in parts then as a sum total.

I would say that both desirability and rarity influence values. Consider the market values of the '55, '56, and '57 Chevys as apposed to the Fords of the same years. These cars have a cult following. If equipped with rare accessories or a particular body style, the value rises astronomically.
The Fords were just as good cars as the Chevys, however.
So, to an old car guy like me, if you want to have a nice old '50's car for a reasonable price, I'll get a Ford.
In bikes, it would be like the difference between an RB-1 and another high end but less "desirable" Japanese made bike.

I'm rare (there's only one of me)

I'm not worth much though.

I have this working, hand built, approximately 120 year old wind blown reed organ made by Mason And Hamlin (a well revered builder of fine pianos, even to this day) that so rare, it's pretty much one of a kind:






Here is a copy of an advertisement for the series available at the time:




This organ, if it were a piano built by the same maker, would easily be worth more than my house. Unfortunately, because so few people even know how to play the organ, and even fewer know anything about them, I would be hard pressed to find a buyer, or even a home for it. I've gotten mixed reviews about it's value. So few have been sold in recent times that no one seems to know what they are worth. I've seen one sell for $8,000 before. It's gotten a lot of excited interest from various people in the know. I tried to sell it once and didn't receive even one serious offer. It generated a lot of interest, but most people seemed to think they couldn't afford it. I had a few people who wanted to have it shipped to them thousands of miles away, no small task. There just weren't enough people who both knew what they were looking at, and had the resources to take it on. I could have sold it to a museum, but most museums wouldn't want it as attraction because people wouldn't know or care what they were looking at if they saw it. Too few of their patrons would have ever even heard one played by a competent individual anyway. I even had a well known modern recording artist who wanted rent it to shoot a music video, but they never seemed to have been able to get together the resources to take it to their set. In the end, popularity matters more than rarity or desirability.

"Rare" and "desirable" are different things (and somewhat conflicting.) Let me explain the conflicting part: If something is truly rare (unless it has been cataloged, like a coin or something) not enough people would know about it to become "desirable" to a critical mass of people to drive its price upwards. And with "rare" I am using the definition of "few copies made compared to others" and not what the word has become to mean these days. Paramounts are a nice example of a desirable but not rare bike that commands high prices. 50s-70s Corvettes are a similar example as far as cars go. Desirability has another factor: Something that was perceived to be "high end" and "unaffordable" to the average person (see: Paramount and Corvette.) Back to the car talk: There are some really quasi rare cars, like a 1987 Buick GNX (547 produced), or a 1968 GT500KR Convertible (517 produced). These are a bit esoteric and do demand a higher premium that "desirable" vehicles of the same era (think, Buick Grand National and '67 GT 500 fastback). And then we are talking about the rare cars, like the single 1968 GT500 KR Hertz Convertible produced. Not many people know about it, so it is not desirable, but enough people know about it, to be insured for $4M (that's about 2 zeros more than its rare but more common peers bring in the market.).

Kind of complicated equation, but as far as rarity goes, it is more like this: If you've seen one, it's probably not rare, if you seen 2, it absolutely is not rare, but in both cases, it might be hard to find and desirable (or not).

Interesting, I have a similar story. My Mom and Dad owned an old "Grotian Steinway" upright piano with a lot of very intricate carved and inlaid detailing on it's rosewood cabinet. A piano dealer once commented to us that it was a rare piano....but its not a "Steinway" as most people are looking for. Turns out that it was made by the brother of the famous Steinway of Steinway pianos who decide to break off from his borther's business. I think he decided to stay in Germany while his brother moved to New York to become the very famous maker of grand pianos whose C&V pianos command lots of money.............so his decision to break off from his brother's business wasn't so smart afterall.... The dealer told us that it would have been worth sooo much more was a Steinway.....and if it wasn't an upright. I inherited it a few years ago and I guess I can just forget ever palnning on retiring from the proceeds from it if I ever sell it.

Chombi

I "found" a Mason & Hamlin reed organ in an abandoned garage. Literally couldn't give the thing away.

Had a Roddy. Finest 80's era Korean workmanship coupled with the best straight-gauge recycled steel tubing ever. It was a rare bike. Only have ever seen one other. At least two suckers bought the ghastly bags of crap. Tured it into a single-speed barhopper & sold it to a kid with a great sense of style & no sense of bikes.

Go north. I'm serious. Get into the midwest, German areas, with Lutherans and Scandinavians. My guess is you'll find people who know exactly what that is and how to play it...... Where I grew up, about 1 in 10 homes had those...

Rat Fink, I think I could bust out a pretty good rendition of "What a Friend we Have in Jesus" on that thing.