I also posted this in the Clyde/Athena forum (if the shoe fits...)
In several of the forums, people have been mentioning every-so-often a price increase that is coming. I realize that due to the price of gas, everything is going up, but does anyone have any 'hard' source for this increase (NPR economist, NYT financial column, etc.)? I'm looking at getting a new LHT in the next month or so, and would like to be ahead of any price jump, but I don't want to get it until we are financially able to do so comfortably.
Thoughts?

Thanks,
D

I have had recent conversations with LBSs who all independently told me the 2009's are going to be 20% higher across the board. If it's not real, it sure is coincidental that they all use 20% as the number.

Now, theyare trying to sell me 2008's that they have today rather than have me wait for the '09 models so, there is something to be gained.

It's gambling at best

I heard similar things from my LBS (I think he said 15% across the board, tho), but I think it has more to do with the weakening dollar than higher gas prices.

steel for building construction is up like 93% this year so... metals use a lot of energy in their production so it makes sense that they will be more expensive.

Probably more due to exchange rate problems than gas prices (although those are interrelated also). The US Dollar isn't worth as much as it was a year ago, mostly due to hugely increased spending, loose credit, and so on. Gold is up to record highs (much more price-stable commodity than oil, demand is more steady and elastic). Most overseas manufacturers have been "holding the line" on prices for a couple years, but their margins have got to be wearing thin by this point.

steel and all mined and refined materials are up in price over the last couple of years. steel is way up actually over a 3 year period. and yeah, the dollar is way down AND the US gov'y keeps messing around with various import tariffs on certain types of steel.

I recently purchased a 2008 Jamis Aurora. I considered waiting until the 2009 model, but the salesmen indicated that the 2009 model would be increasing in price by about $150 (about 17%) mainly due to the cost of metals, which a bit of research reveals have gone up by 30- 40% in the commodity markets in the last 15 months. While it may have been a sales ploy, I knew a bit about the cost of metals recently, the bike fit and was what I was looking for, so I took it. Still awaiting my OMM Rack and Arkel panniers to compliment it.

I went to 3 LBS over the past week or so searching for a new roadie.

trek prices for the same road bike were going up $100-150 with little component changes...is what my LBS told me and were quoting me

I'm in the process of purchasing a Raleigh that was available in my size. price issues were going to be the same at that place.

I want to buy before being gouged for more money. I dont need to buy immediately but if I can find a "deal" now, might as well...

the inflation adj makes sense considering the commodity (steel, aluminum, fiberglass) prices

I would believe what the LBSs are telling you. I was "warned" when I bought a bike in April a few years ago and the manager was right, the prices took a jump for the next model year. Unless the '09 has an anti-gravity device or glows in the dark, I'd take the deal on the '08.

https://www.surlybikes.com/2008_07_01...80550388424227

Is straight from the manufacturer hard enough for you?

Beat me to it. Yes, Surly has already acknowledged the price increase. It's giving me grief, too, because I'm planning on buying a Long Haul Trucker frame over the winter, but if I fork over the money now, it'll be cheaper, or it would be if the money was in the budget now...

So, yeah, given that Surly themselves are saying this is going to happen, if you know what you want and have the money, the time to buy is now.

Thanks to one and all for your input, the quote from Surly especially.

I'm with you there. If the wife and I were inclined to borrow money any more (we have my student loans and a mortgage, that's it), we would probably put the new bike on one of those evil little plastic things that get folks into trouble. But we don't do that now (got them all paid off just after we got married, the Dave Ramsey course is a beautiful thing), and we'll just have to wait and see.

Thanks again for all the input.

D

x2

In the last few months petrol here has gone up 30p / litre (I make that around $2.40 / gall!), diesel more. Two years ago scrap light iron was weighing in at £25 / tonne, scrap aluminium at £400 / tonne; now it's £200 / tonne and £1000 / tonne respectively. New commodities prices have increased proportionately. Anything rubber or plastic has oil in it; the plastics company I work for are seeing big increases in raw material for moulding or extrusion. Difficult to see how the manufacturers can avoid putting their prices up, really. The surprise will be if it's only 15 - 20%.

Raw materials and transportation and labor and borrowing costs are all going up fast. The low dollar only exacerbates the issue. Oil costs contribute significantly. Wholesalers and retailers have made adjustments to hold out as long as they can, including trimming their margins, but that bubble is deflating rapidly.

Just been to local Trek dealer, prices going up across the board - to give an idea of size, 7.3FX up to £400 from £350, 7300 up to £425 from £370

Surly has announce a price increase. But I still see them at the old price from online dealers, and just ordered the LHT last week from my LBS at the old, lower price. Not sure when the higher prices go into effect, but they have announced the increase. I know the Big Dummies have already gone up to the higher prices. I suspect the ones in stock now at dealers may be the old price, but new ones coming from Surly will be at the higher prices already.

you've got to love those industrialized nations coming on board and building infrastructure like crazy. thus part of the reason for increasing material costs. i have not seen a significant difference in '09 compared to '08. if i was buying a new bike i would go for the least expensive model especially since the difference is not significant, to me anyway.