powerband

This article might be interesting to members of this forum:

https://www.straight.com/article-1783...-forecast-2009

thdave

Interesting read.

I'm not a doom and gloom guy and I see some opportunities in all of this, but I can't help but agree with the sentiment that the automobile lifestyle, which the author poigniantly ties to the expanding suburbia issue, is unsustainable to a certain extent.

If the high quality $25/hour jobs of the middle class get replaced with $10-15/hour jobs, which results from the closing of numerous auto plants, it becomes quite tough to afford and operate two cars, even with two income families. As families go back to one car per family--that aggrevates the economic situation.

So many moved out to the safer confines and the better schools of the far suburbs to the detriment of the inner cities. They did this to save money--it's cheaper to move to further out than nearer in suburbs--but the cost in gas money in tough times is exorbinant. I, too, doubt the long term viability of urban sprawl.

Of course, some businesses have moved out, too.

AdamD

There is a set of documentaries in the same vein called Escape from Suburbia and End of Suburbia. The author of this article is interviewed heavily in both. It's interesting to watch them as they were made in 2004 and 2007, and then to read this which is in a way an update of sorts. They're worth watching Netflix has them.

tjspiel

My daughter got an "American Girl" doll as a gift. It's an ironic name. The fact that people are willing to pay $13 to pierce a doll's ears seems to be the epitome of American consumerism.

Each of these dolls has a story, - told in a series of books. You get the first book with the doll. Strangely enough, my daughter's doll grew up in the Depression. The story is told pretty well. The main character's family had to take on boarders when her father lost his job. She also had to go to work taking care of her uncle. She couldn't get new clothes, etc, etc. The book is filled with tidbits on how people lived during that period of time in our history.

Anyway, I'm not a doom and gloom guy either but the current economic situation to me is scarier than than past looming tragedies that seem to always cloud our future, be it Nuclear Annihilation, or Global Warming.

I'm not sure about the long term sustainability of the automobile culture and how tightly it is linked to our current crisis. Living beyond our means seems to be the cause and sure, automobile related expenses are part of it but I don't know if I would put it at the center.

ultramagnetic

After reading Kunstler's Geography of Nowhere and Home from Nowhere, I really thought he had gone off the deep end when I read The Long Emergency in 2006.

He seems to think his predictions are on their way to confirmation. I might have to pull it off the bookshelf and give it another go.

tjspiel

Something I just learned. In spite of a huge spike in ridership, public transit in the area I live in has a big funding problem and may have to cut routes.

Why? A significant portion of its funding comes from new car sales, - which have plummeted.

Commuter76

Funny that they would fund public transit with the sale of its competition.

I really enjoyed the article. I believe the author is right, but I'm not sure it will happen as quickly as he predicts. I am trying to make my family live more sustainably, but it can be hard when your spouse grew up in a fairly well-off family.

Santaria

Honestly, I think 87.5% of his piece is a vaguely accurate assessment.

If you own your own car (my wife and I sold our Suburban for a 88 VW Vanagon) and have lived your life credit-free, all this crap is meaningless. The mass of the working poor who have never been good enough to get 'money' from the capitalist model will not see a large change in their lifestyle or their own status quo.


The only people who really are going to be hurt by anything remotely close to what he is speculating are people who have lived their life 'in the red' on Visa/Mastercards and greatly inflated credit-to-income ratios that have been misleading.

Viva La Resistance I say, and damn your ****ing cake - I hope it tastes like dust.

mrbubbles

A good video from Kunstler.
https://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/j..._suburbia.html

bcbcbc

I've heard that one of the seminal events in the 'victory' of the auto over mass transit was car or oil companies buying up the public transit in order to shut it down or minimalise it. Henry Ford hisself maybe? Probably some people here know the details better than I.

I think our state-capitalist system will work around the petroleum crisis with suprisingly little pain. The main real problem is making sure that most of the people who have gotten rich on gas and cars stay rich on the alternatives. They seem to be well on the way to ensuring that. After that it's just a technological problem set which mass quantities of capitol usually solve pretty readily.

What can't go on forever and can't be changed by reforming the current system is growth-based capitalism as the basis of society. I dont see even a glimmer of hope of a good solution.

Bill Kapaun

Ever hear of cigarettes?

HardyWeinberg

There was a letter to today's paper using the example of Cuba, where there was no car biz and US car imports ended 50 yrs ago to show that an economy was created in fabricating parts for and maintaining old cars wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy past their generally expected lifespan. They were speculating that if the big 3 folded, their employees could disperse throughout the country and fill niches in garages and machine shops making discontinued parts and servicing discontinued cars. Don't know how that would be expected to jibe w/ the existing supply chain for car parts (bailout news has it that they will all fold if the big 3 do) and existing service stations.

Anyway, I'll believe it all when I see it. I hear we're all going to start buying cars again now that GMAC has been bailed out and car loans will resume flowing.

georgewietor

I have 2 Vanagons. They are incredibly useful, tremendous fun, but heavy and get modest mileage. Use them for local campouts, especially with other enthusiasts. You can live in them. I think of my '83.5 Westy as a portable bunkhouse. I keep mine in pretty good repair. But sustainable? Maybe not.
Like-minde neard individuals may join us at BusesByTheBeach or Vanagon.com for more fellowship. And flames.
BBTB uses a campground on the river near Grand Rapids not far from the paved section of the White Pine Trail. Bring something to pedal.
George in Chilly W. Michigan.

Hot Potato

I tried to read it all, but I might have missed it... is the sky falling too?

DannoXYZ 

The early auto-makers certainly, although most of the blame can be put on the nascent tyre and trucking industry that destroyed the railroads. Even today, the trucking industry fights strongly against development of modern efficient public trains like you see in Europe.

Santaria

I would agree wholeheartedly that a Volkswagen Vanagon isn't the best 'sustainable' vehicle. But with three children, 3 bikes and two trailers to 'transport' it is a far better option than say:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZGjAYp7_Es

I have a 66 SHO in storage that doesn't have a motor in it currently, but that would be even less attractive for transporting the 'ids and junk.

Oddly, we attend the TTP event yearly (Transporters to The Point (Morgan's Point). One of the benefits of being in journalism for me is that I've always been able to promote my own hippy-VW-Bikeloving agenda at will


My brother has a house in Detroit, maybe I'll come up there and check out the VW scene when he gets back from The War on Terrycloth.




I totally agree dude, let's put our heads in the sand together and hold hands while singing 'one more term - BUSH in 2010!' together? Please . . . we can make T-shirts and bumper stickers and taffy! Maybe even large tarps with the "Everything is fine, please look elsewhere' logos to help people not see tragic ****ups caused by the new and improved © Bush administration?

Doohickie

As always, I am about in the middle of the two extremes in my viewpoint. I doubt we are on the precipice of an oil crash. However, to think we can maintain the superheated economic drive that epitomized the last decade or so is pretty unrealistic as well.

Instead, I see a series of recoveries and backward corrections over the next several years, but in that time I think people will discover they can be happier with less, but still have everything they need. The key, I think, is to lower your sights now and to adjust to the new realities of life, rather than to continually strive to maximize profits, possessions and status.

wahoonc

It has been happening for years...fueled by Walmart and others as the shifting of manufacturing jobs to China continued. Towns that used to have manufacturing facilities for things like denim, bicycles, lawn mowers, mixers, toilets, etc, have seen their jobs leave only to be replaced by lower paying service jobs. Case in point: Erwin, NC in Harnett County. Swift Denim Mills, it was the largest denim plant in the USA, started around 1900, at it's peak it employed nearly 2,000 people at an average wage of $14 an hour in the 1990's. It finally closed in 2005. Now the single largest employer in the county is Walmart with 450 employees at an average of wage of $9 an hour...and the carnage continues.

Aaron

pacificaslim

Exactly. We own our cars (VW Golf and Fiat spider), don't buy anything on credit and have no need for it, so we are fine right now. And not only do we make our purchasing decissions based on the "need" factor, we also chose our careers they same way! So since our jobs are actually necessary for society, we are at very little risk of ever being out of work.

Hot Potato

Surf Bum's are necessary for society??? I suppose.

But I am your fiscal brother, and won't feel any pain either. But I was poor, it was hard work and discipline that paid off, not any form of leveraging or gaming of the system. I hope others catch on.

Dzrtrat

Good read thanks for posting it.

powerband

A falling sky implies immediate problems. I believe Mr. Kunstler is alluding to long-term unsustainability, a point to which he has criticized people for failing to understand.

Santaria

Let me explicate perhaps, if the noribund economy can be quantified by your hard work and discipline, then my matriculation and subsequent vocation should not be so nebulous?

I posit such.

AlmostTrick

Not true. People with little or no credit debt will still be hurt if they lose their jobs. Even those who can easily take care of themselves, may feel some pain if they are forced to feed and/or house family members who weren't so fortunate.

Only if you believe demand for oil will never exceed supply, or that some new technology will replace it (at virtually the same cost) before that happens, can you say all of this crap is meaningless.

Popeyecahn

Kunstler is an interesting writer and one giant curmudgeon. I used to read his blog a few years back, and as interesting a writer he can be, he was too strident for my sensibilities as well as being a dyed in the wool doom and gloomer.

As far as his prognostications, he often hits far below the mark on the short term (Y2K for one...) and really any fool can see that sustainability of the current first world is suspect on all accounts in the long term. But whether or not they will act on that info with a real dedication is really a failing of human nature in general ain't it? Of course they fail to understand, they don't want to think about it, because the picture is far too freaking grand to take in and digest. So humans look mostly at the short term and their immediate surroundings, is that new or something?

I suggest some of you read John Micheal Greer (who respects Kunstler, but is far more reasonable a thinker tho lacks the fireworks JK has) or hang out at the Energy Bulletin for more insight into peak oil, sustainability issues etc. And then read JD over at Peak Oil Debunked for a humorous, yet insightful response to the doom and gloom crowd.