colleen c

Umm, personally I prefer them to be pedal power instead

wolfchild

The government won't allow that. Because they are making too much money from gasoline Tax.
Also the oil companies are run by dictators and criminals. What do you think they would do if they went out of business ?

ianbrettcooper

Because they are made using components that are made from oil or need a lot of oil to make them. You can substitute non-oil alternatives for some of them, but first you have to retool a bunch of factories and find the sources to make the components. Then you have to test the new components - all in an environment that is mired in a huge economic depression. A lot of people don't realize how many alternate fuel vehicles need oil - i.e. ALL of them. Currently, no car manufacturer has a vehicle that needs no oil in its manufacture.

Petroleum is not just in a car's fuel tank. People generally have no concept of how much oil we use and where. All plastic is oil, all rubber is not rubber anymore - it's oil. Chemical fertilizers - oil. The list goes on and on. Oil is everywhere: Guitar strings, Pantyhose, Golf bags, Dentures, Candles, Hair coloring, Aspirin, Footballs, Food preservatives, Lipstick, Electric blankets, Ammonia, Pillows. Heck, even our shower gels and shampoos are oil.

In terms of alternative fuel cars, here are just a few of the parts that are still made from petroleum: Bearing Grease, Upholstery, Tires, Dashboards, Refrigerant, Car Battery Cases, Oil Filters, Speakers, Antifreeze, Fan Belts, Car Enamel.

LeeG

Which would make one think that we would have even greater reasons for increasing efficiency in your personal car since you have to use it more than people in Europe. What did our gov't do? It encouraged the production and sale of low efficiency SUV/light trucks for passenger use while increasing military presence and military solutions in the middle east. Think about that. Who benefited and who is paying, and will pay for those decisions.

LeeG

In the US Federal gasoline tax hasn't increased since 1993 which means that as a percentage of total cost the percentage one pays for tax has gone DOWN. The result in the US has been that hwy funds are underfunded with the shortfall coming from the general fund. Oil companies are run by people providing a material people want. Your country is doing a great job supplying the US with a lot of oil, no doubt you struggle with the reward to local economies and environmental consequences of oil sand operations.
Oil companies no longer have much influence on world oil supplies, it's primarily national oil companies running the show so as to protect their income sources. We simply open up to the magic hand of the marketplace to supply the most energy for the least cost. Canada and the US are doing pretty well compared to the rest of the world. How much is a gallon of gas up there?

ianbrettcooper

What are you talking about? The point is, the stuff will be MADE here. Of course it won't be imported, by local convenience stores or by Walmart - no one will be able to import widgets from China because the transport costs will make the items more expensive than a widget that's made in the US. The nation's investment in the global market won't matter when gasoline prices prevent them from importing or exporting anything. Those corporations which are heavily invested in global concerns better hope that those global businesses can adapt to the new local economic model, otherwise those corporations will go bankrupt.

If you think peak oil is merely 'green fearmongering', you must not have seen the figures for global oil production recently. Peak oil is coming soon, if it's not already here.

And yes, the British Empire was trading globally in the 1700s - but if you think modern governments are going to allow the sort of labour practices that were common under the British Raj, you've got another think coming. No modern nation has an empire the likes of the British Empire of the 18th and 19th Centuries. Nationalism put an end to all that.

boro

What are the recent figures for oil production?

ianbrettcooper

Take a look at The Oil Drum. They should have something over there.

https://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576

https://europe.theoildrum.com/node/7001

https://www.parliament.nz/NR/rdonlyre...toilshock1.pdf

https://www.peakoil.net/files/German_Peak_Oil.pdf - mostly in German, but graphs in English and an English bit right at the end.

https://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...climate-change

https://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files...ggatt_lahn.pdf

LeeG

you can poke around the site for specific nations



https://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdb...5&pid=53&aid=1

LeeG

I don't understand econmic fundamentals but it seems to me a dynamic equilibrium occurs with supply and demand but with a finite supply if the price goes too high we simply suffer recession until we find a more economical use for oil. Reading around what some folks have said is that when oil gets much above $80/barrel the effects are recessionary. So I'm thinking we may not see the price of fuel at the pump go very high but the economy could suffer which has about the same consequence, not being able to buy as much fuel or drive as much because unemployment is high. Who cares if gas is $2/gal if you're out of work, $5/gal is ok when you're being paid a lot and have a high mpg vehicle.
Alternative fuels only make sense when oil is expensive but alternatives will be expensive as well. No free lunch. I think the transition period will be along a plateau of fluctuating prices and supply for 20yrs before things really slide down hill. The transition won't be to alternatives. The transition will be to less oil and more expensive liquid fuels.

Robert Hirsch isn't too optomistic.

https://www.amazon.com/Impending-Worl...7115939&sr=1-1

Titmawz

I do not even know anymore what are the gas prices.

jds669

More than a third of all raw materials and fossil fuels consumed in the U.S. are used in animal production. Beef production alone uses more water than is consumed in growing the nation’s entire fruit and vegetable crop. Producing a single hamburger patty uses enough fuel to drive 20 miles and causes the loss of five times its weight in topsoil. In his book The Food Revolution, author John Robbins estimates that “you’d save more water by not eating a pound of California beef than you would by not showering for an entire year.” Because of deforestation to create grazing land, each vegetarian saves an acre of trees per year.

Aside from the cost of grains used to feed livestock you can also measure the cost of fossil fuel energy. Agricultural production uses ten percent of the energy used every year in the United States. David Pimentel from Cornell University explained it this way, 40 calories of fossil fuel are needed to produce one calorie of protein from feedlot beef while only two calories of fossil fuel are needed to produce one calorie of protein from tofu.

jds669

To put the energy-using demand of meat production into easy-to-understand terms, Gidon Eshel, a geophysicist at the Bard Center, and Pamela A. Martin, an assistant professor of geophysics at the University of Chicago, calculated that if Americans were to reduce meat consumption by just 20 percent it would be as if we all switched from a standard sedan — a Camry, say — to the ultra-efficient Prius. Similarly, a study last year by the National Institute of Livestock and Grassland Science in Japan estimated that 2.2 pounds of beef is responsible for the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide emitted by the average European car every 155 miles, and burns enough energy to light a 100-watt bulb for nearly 20 days.

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/we...27bittman.html

jds669

It takes more than 11 times as much fossil fuel to make one calorie from animal protein as it does to make one calorie from plant protein. Raising animals for food gobbles up precious energy. Simply add up the energy-intensive stages of raising animals for food: (1) grow massive amounts of corn, grain, and soybeans (with all the required tilling, irrigation, crop-dusters, etc.); (2) transport the grain and soybeans to feed manufacturers on gas-guzzling 18-wheelers; (3) operate the feed mills (requiring massive energy expenditures); (4) transport the feed to the factory farms (again, in gas-guzzling vehicles); (5) operate the factory farms; (6) truck the animals many miles to slaughter; (7) operate the slaughterhouse; (8) transport the meat to processing plants; (9) operate the meat-processing plants; (10) transport the meat to grocery stores; (11) keep the meat refrigerated or frozen in the stores until it's sold.

tjspiel

I don't know, I think that's rather a distorted picture. There's a lot of chemicals, machinery, shipping, refrigeration, etc involved in raising most fruits too. At least on the family farm that my cousins grew up on (and I spent a lot of time working at), a good chunk of the food for the livestock came from the farm itself, and the cows provided fertilizer for the crops.

I do know that it's a challenge getting all your nutritional needs met on a strictly vegetarian diet though most people don't need nearly the amount of meat they consume. This is from my brother who works in the food science department at a university.

cab chaser

Gas is not nearly expensive enough. I love seeing higher gas prices. We have been living with artificially low gas prices for years in the US. My family lives in Rome, where gas is much more expensive. I'd love to see the price of gas skyrocket, and suddenly see junkyards full of SUV's and see people start living healthier lifestyles.

jds669

1. Unfortunately, most people don't get their food from "family farms", they get it from mega-farm factories.
2. I have not found it a challenge getting all my nutritional needs met on a strictly vegetarian diet. This comes from me, I haven't eaten meat in over40 years. My two kids were raised meatless. While most of their friends missed school with colds, flu, etc. and my co-workers were constantly sick......few vegetarians have runny noses caused by the blood and mucus in their diet.
3. Not preaching; eat what you want, it's your body.
3.

CharmCityCycle

Uh, yeah... Trade will undoubtedly continue, but only in such situations as it actually makes sense. As in the 1700's, tea will probably continue to come from Asia. I'm sure vinophiles will still import Bordeaux and Burgundy from France, and probably Rohloff hubs will still be brought in from Germany by IGH fans. But as energy prices rise--assuming our society manages to survive the shock--we will have to embrace some efficiencies that right now seem unthinkable. As oil becomes ever scarcer, it will almost certainly become cheaper to produce clothing, furniture, and appliances here (even with the higher labor costs), then to produce such items in some Pac Rim country, and then ship them half way around the world. Doing such things doesn't make sense on a rational level now, but eventually it wont make sense even on an economic level. So no, trade will not cease, but it will probably only exist where there is a compelling reason for it, due to the different climates and specializations of different countries.

As to the rest of your post, I'm sure you are right insomuch as we probably won't change our behavior until every last drop has been pumped out of the ground. But oil is a limited resource. No one knows when we will really start to run out (or when it will take more energy to extract than it actually provides), but most scientists agree it won't be too long now. The only question is whether we will be caught completely flat footed.

AlmostTrick

1. Right, and they couldn't. Family farms could never produce the billions of animals we presently eat. Besides, many of the few animals they do produce (like cows) still get "finished" on high density feed lots.

2. Right. Even some world class athletes have managed just fine on a plant based diet. Eating meat does not guarantee good nutrition.

3. Eating less meat will absolutely reduce our use of oil. Expect meat to become quite expensive once peak oil really sets in. No more 99 cent cheeseburgers, that's for sure.

PaulH

Since I fill up my car only once a month, I usually have no idea what gas prices are. At 3,000 miles a year, gas prices have little effect on me. However, I'd rather have them low, because of the adverse effects upon the economy of higher ones.

I started riding my bike thirteen years ago because traffic congestion made it more convenient than driving. Would more expensive gas lead to less congestion and make cycling less appealing to low mileage drivers, who are insensitive to fuel prices?

Paul

ianbrettcooper

I don't think anyone will be insensitive to the prices that are coming. The thing is, it's not just the price of the gas that we need to consider. It's also the fact that these higher gas prices will drive a recession that will make this recent one seem like a picnic. So the $200 it might cost to fill your tank will have to come from our unemployment benefit checks. You may be relatively insensitive to a $200 bill right now, but what about when you're also on half the income you're used to? And what about when oil reaches the price of a cup of Starbucks coffee at $30/gallon? It's going to get really expensive before it becomes worthless, so at some point it's going to make everyone sensitive.

My family was out of work pretty much all last year. The things you cut are the luxuries, and in the very near future, driving a car will be a singularly expensive luxury.

DataJunkie

Considering that folks have been predicting doom and gloom for 40 years and haven't gotten it right yet...

AlmostTrick

How many experts were predicting peak oil 40 years ago, and what time frame did they place on it?

electrik

IIRC, peak oil production should be occurring now or maybe in a few years due to the recession.

ianbrettcooper

We don't need experts to predict anymore. It's pretty clear from production data that it's already here. It probably happened five years ago, which is one reason we had a recession in 2007. As the price of oil fluctuates, we'll go through booms and busts with more and nastier recessions until we finally get the message and get off the oil teat.