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Is it safe to ride with the Coronavirus going around?

 
Old 03-05-20, 02:02 PM
  #76  
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ITis amazing how good the food is at the UMass DC now. It was garbge when i went there -- bcack when dinosaurs roamed the earth.
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Old 03-05-20, 04:10 PM
  #77  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
Nah, toilet paper unravels too easily and flops around too much creating too much drag slowing you down. Wrapping yourself in shrink wrap is a lot more aerodynamic.
And sweat makes the TP disintigrate off you too...
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Old 03-05-20, 04:48 PM
  #78  
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As far as I know, I never got the Swine Flu or was it the Bird Flu , SARS, or the Zika virus. But to clarify, I was never tested either..... No concerns here.
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Old 03-05-20, 05:02 PM
  #79  
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Originally Posted by zjrog View Post
And sweat makes the TP disintigrate off you too...
Only the good stuff.
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Old 03-05-20, 05:48 PM
  #80  
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Clearly I'm no epidemiologist, but I have access to the same publicly available data as everybody else, and am a halfway decent general purpose data analyst. This is what scientists do when they're faced with an interesting issue. I'm also using it to improve my data science skills. As of yesterday, reported cases of COVID-19 in the US were around 150, and the data are reasonably fitted to an exponential growth curve with a doubling time of around 5 or 6 days. That number has bounced around a bit for the past few days because each new data point changes the fit. It's only the "reported" cases, but it's also safe to assume that unreported cases are an additional number.

I can't give medical or health advice, but my approach at this point is to assume that nothing major is going to happen in my own town until after the college kids come back after spring break, which will have the effect of stirring the entire American petri dish. At that point, it will be prudent to assume that we don't know anything about the future progress of COVID-19 in the US until maybe a couple more weeks. Before then, and possibly thereafter, I'm personally going to assume that the air around my bike is less toxic than the air inside public transit, and I will actually require my kids to ride their bikes instead of taking the bus.

The only thing that can't be predicted from an exponential growth curve is where it will end. Clearly, the total population is an upper limit. Hubei province in China has topped out at roughly 0.14% of the population, but we don't know if this is due to the biology of COVID-19, or government and social response to the situation. Because of that, the data are not a good predictor of what's going to happen in the US.

My plan is to take it day by day, and to be guided by science and evidence to the extent possible.

Update: 221 cases as of 3/5, same basic curve.

Last edited by Gresp15C; 03-05-20 at 07:03 PM.
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Old 03-05-20, 05:53 PM
  #81  
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Originally Posted by Gresp15C View Post
My plan is to take it day by day, and to be guided by science and evidence to the extent possible.
This.. combined with some common sense, will go a long way.
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Old 03-05-20, 09:01 PM
  #82  
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As it pertains to riding I guess ,,, a practical advice would be stay away from areas that are too congested and enclosed when you get off your bike ,, so if you're going on a long ride maybe pack enough water and enough food from your home , and don't stop off at the corner store where people sneeze on the rolling hot dog cooker ...😣
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Old 03-05-20, 10:08 PM
  #83  
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Shoot, I ride around Looking for corona virus. I will kick its viral behind if I see it on the road.
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Old 03-05-20, 10:17 PM
  #84  
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Originally Posted by DreamRider85 View Post
I知 in California. Just wondering if cycling puts you at further risk for the coronavirus. If I知 riding in areas where there痴 less people is that better?
Gloom and Doom dude. Gloom and Doom. I'm pretty sure you've got the virus already. You better check yourself. Poor California. Please divide..... From the rest of us.
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Old 03-05-20, 10:23 PM
  #85  
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Originally Posted by rossiny View Post
I actually think this is no joke. Good question.. it sure seems to me the more people you are around in a confined space the riskier. Example cruise ships. I can't comment about California as your population is high so if you happen to bike in a high density area ,, who knows??
Laffing. Um, California isn't a cruise ship. Canned food people. But no soup for you......

Last edited by BillyD; 03-06-20 at 08:00 AM. Reason: politics
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Old 03-05-20, 10:36 PM
  #86  
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Zika, bird flu, swine flu, hantavirus, encephalitis, corona virus, SARs .... either the Earth is facing its seventh mass extinction in three decades, or most of this is media hype, and stores are loving the added income.
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Old 03-06-20, 04:35 AM
  #87  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
Zika, bird flu, swine flu, hantavirus, encephalitis, corona virus, SARs .... either the Earth is facing its seventh mass extinction in three decades, or most of this is media hype, and stores are loving the added income.

Or, you know, it might be a disruptive event that is already having a worldwide economic impact and resulting in deaths already in the thousands and showing all signs that that number will grow exponentially. No, it's not end-times, but pretending it's nothing is just as irrational.

There's lots of groups that are going to have to take special precautions. Cyclists just don't happen to be one.
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Old 03-06-20, 08:37 AM
  #88  
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Flu is every bit as deadly .... and you know what is really a threat? Driving, with 30-40,000 killed per year (just in he U.S.)

I have a lot better chance of dying on a bike ride than from corona virus---and I have a history of respiratory infections.

Yeah, old and sickly folk are at greater risk .... but that is true for every virus.

I don't think the corona virus isn't real ... i think the hype is ridiculous.

Not sure how old some posters were .... but back in the day every new disease wasn't going to end life on the planet, and every hurricane wasn't the storm of the century .... nobody panicked when the skies got cloudy, nobody bought every sheet of plywood and toilet paper when it started raining .....

I worked in the news media for 15 years, and have been studying it longer than that .... I don't know how many people recall what life was like when"The News" was one of three programs (three channels) than came on every morning and twice at night, at dinner time and at 11 p.m. Back then, when there wasn't a need to constantly outbid the competition with mad craziness 24 hours a day, really big stuff and smaller stuff happened .... and everyone talked about it in calm, rational tones.

Nowadays everything is hype. Shouting is the normal conversational volume of the media, and screaming hysterically is the only way to cut through .... and people seem not to notice.

Bird fly, mad cow .... whatever. yeah, a bunch of farmers will lose. Katrina, New Orleans lost. Stuff happens. Chicxulub, the dinosaurs lost. And you know ... maybe some day, maybe soon, a really virulent disease will decimate humanity. Maybe corona virus is that disease .... or maybe humanity is that disease.

I tend to take a more thoughtful approach. I think I will go ride my bike later.

It's just life.

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Old 03-06-20, 09:09 AM
  #89  
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Originally Posted by mtb_addict View Post
i ride around with wearing facemask and eyeglasses absolutely...because i live in congested urban area
Sounds right on point for you.
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Old 03-06-20, 09:10 AM
  #90  
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Originally Posted by Wileyrat View Post
I just got home from a 7 day Caribbean cruise, I'm still alive ( I did catch a cold though).
Funny thing, nobody died on the cruise, but three of the six in our group returned to Seattle, where they are dying from coronavirus.
Its funny that half your group is dying from coronavirus?***
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Old 03-06-20, 09:17 AM
  #91  
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I watched "Contagion" last night.
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Old 03-06-20, 09:22 AM
  #92  
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Originally Posted by NomarsGirl View Post
amazing how good the food is at the UMass DC
amazing. if I was making my college decision these days, I would base it on food alone & go the UMass Amherst hands-down. my kids didn't agree & went elsewhere, where they complained about the food until they got into apartments of their own
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Old 03-06-20, 09:30 AM
  #93  
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Originally Posted by Gresp15C View Post
Clearly I'm no epidemiologist, but I have access to the same publicly available data as everybody else, and am a halfway decent general purpose data analyst. This is what scientists do when they're faced with an interesting issue. I'm also using it to improve my data science skills. As of yesterday, reported cases of COVID-19 in the US were around 150, and the data are reasonably fitted to an exponential growth curve with a doubling time of around 5 or 6 days. That number has bounced around a bit for the past few days because each new data point changes the fit. It's only the "reported" cases, but it's also safe to assume that unreported cases are an additional number.

I can't give medical or health advice, but my approach at this point is to assume that nothing major is going to happen in my own town until after the college kids come back after spring break, which will have the effect of stirring the entire American petri dish. At that point, it will be prudent to assume that we don't know anything about the future progress of COVID-19 in the US until maybe a couple more weeks. Before then, and possibly thereafter, I'm personally going to assume that the air around my bike is less toxic than the air inside public transit, and I will actually require my kids to ride their bikes instead of taking the bus.

The only thing that can't be predicted from an exponential growth curve is where it will end. Clearly, the total population is an upper limit. Hubei province in China has topped out at roughly 0.14% of the population, but we don't know if this is due to the biology of COVID-19, or government and social response to the situation. Because of that, the data are not a good predictor of what's going to happen in the US.

My plan is to take it day by day, and to be guided by science and evidence to the extent possible.

Update: 221 cases as of 3/5, same basic curve.
Originally Posted by indyfabz View Post
I watched "Contagion" last night.
Read "The Viral Storm."
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Old 03-06-20, 09:36 AM
  #94  
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Originally Posted by DreamRider85 View Post
I知 in California. Just wondering if cycling puts you at further risk for the coronavirus. If I知 riding in areas where there痴 less people is that better?
now that's a scary question.no news is good news?
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Old 03-06-20, 09:46 AM
  #95  
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Originally Posted by rumrunn6 View Post
amazing. if I was making my college decision these days, I would base it on food alone & go the UMass Amherst hands-down. my kids didn't agree & went elsewhere, where they complained about the food until they got into apartments of their own
I used he food to gt my dughter to go to uMass. She was leaning toward UNH. When we went up to visit, I sai, "Let's go check out town". I had never been to Durham. I was not impresed. After looking around, I asked her if she could live for 4 years without Chinese food. She didn't think she could. Amherst is such a great college town.

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Old 03-06-20, 10:05 AM
  #96  
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COVID-19 & the "Flu" have differences

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...019-vs-the-flu
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Old 03-06-20, 10:05 AM
  #97  
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Originally Posted by NomarsGirl View Post
Amherst is such a great college town.
I went to high school just up the road in Deerfield. Went back in 2012 and 2014 for D2R2, which is a mostly dirt randonee ride that starts and ends in Deerfield. Stopped in Amherst for lunch both Fridays before the event.
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Old 03-06-20, 10:44 AM
  #98  
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Originally Posted by rumrunn6 View Post
amazing. if I was making my college decision these days, I would base it on food alone & go the UMass Amherst hands-down. my kids didn't agree & went elsewhere, where they complained about the food until they got into apartments of their own
I spent last weekend visiting my son at Amherst with my younger son. It is incredibly hard not to want to eat about 10,000 calories at every meal there, much better than most restaurants. Except that the restaurants in the area are fantastic.
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Old 03-06-20, 10:45 AM
  #99  
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Originally Posted by NomarsGirl View Post
I used he food to gt my dughter to go to uMass. She was leaning toward UNH. When we went up to visit, I sai, "Let's go check out town". I had never been to Durham. I was not impresed. After looking around, I asked her if she could live for 4 years without Chinese food. She didn't think she could. Amherst is such a great college town.

There's Chinese food in Durham. Bad Chinese food at the back end of a mall plaza.
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Old 03-06-20, 11:30 AM
  #100  
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Get a really big one of these:


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