Is it safe to ride with the Coronavirus going around?
#76
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Easton, MA
Posts: 536
Bikes: Specialized Ruby Sport
Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 273 Post(s)
Liked 194 Times
in
115 Posts
ITis amazing how good the food is at the UMass DC now. It was garbge when i went there -- bcack when dinosaurs roamed the earth.

#77
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 1,658
Bikes: 1986 KHS Fiero, 1989 Trek 950, 1990 Trek 7000, 1991 Gary Fisher Hoo Koo E Koo, 1992 Trek 1400, 1997 Cannondale CAD2 R300, 1998 Cannondale CAD2 R200, 2002 Marin San Rafael, 2006 Cannondale CAAD8 R1000, 2010 Performance Access XCL9R
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 271 Post(s)
Liked 233 Times
in
162 Posts

#78
Senior Member
As far as I know, I never got the Swine Flu or was it the Bird Flu , SARS, or the Zika virus. But to clarify, I was never tested either..... No concerns here.

#80
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 3,536
Mentioned: 18 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 936 Post(s)
Liked 458 Times
in
307 Posts
Clearly I'm no epidemiologist, but I have access to the same publicly available data as everybody else, and am a halfway decent general purpose data analyst. This is what scientists do when they're faced with an interesting issue. I'm also using it to improve my data science skills. As of yesterday, reported cases of COVID-19 in the US were around 150, and the data are reasonably fitted to an exponential growth curve with a doubling time of around 5 or 6 days. That number has bounced around a bit for the past few days because each new data point changes the fit. It's only the "reported" cases, but it's also safe to assume that unreported cases are an additional number.
I can't give medical or health advice, but my approach at this point is to assume that nothing major is going to happen in my own town until after the college kids come back after spring break, which will have the effect of stirring the entire American petri dish. At that point, it will be prudent to assume that we don't know anything about the future progress of COVID-19 in the US until maybe a couple more weeks. Before then, and possibly thereafter, I'm personally going to assume that the air around my bike is less toxic than the air inside public transit, and I will actually require my kids to ride their bikes instead of taking the bus.
The only thing that can't be predicted from an exponential growth curve is where it will end. Clearly, the total population is an upper limit. Hubei province in China has topped out at roughly 0.14% of the population, but we don't know if this is due to the biology of COVID-19, or government and social response to the situation. Because of that, the data are not a good predictor of what's going to happen in the US.
My plan is to take it day by day, and to be guided by science and evidence to the extent possible.
Update: 221 cases as of 3/5, same basic curve.
I can't give medical or health advice, but my approach at this point is to assume that nothing major is going to happen in my own town until after the college kids come back after spring break, which will have the effect of stirring the entire American petri dish. At that point, it will be prudent to assume that we don't know anything about the future progress of COVID-19 in the US until maybe a couple more weeks. Before then, and possibly thereafter, I'm personally going to assume that the air around my bike is less toxic than the air inside public transit, and I will actually require my kids to ride their bikes instead of taking the bus.
The only thing that can't be predicted from an exponential growth curve is where it will end. Clearly, the total population is an upper limit. Hubei province in China has topped out at roughly 0.14% of the population, but we don't know if this is due to the biology of COVID-19, or government and social response to the situation. Because of that, the data are not a good predictor of what's going to happen in the US.
My plan is to take it day by day, and to be guided by science and evidence to the extent possible.
Update: 221 cases as of 3/5, same basic curve.
Last edited by Gresp15C; 03-05-20 at 07:03 PM.

Likes For Gresp15C:
Likes For bobwysiwyg:
#82
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: SE Wisconsin
Posts: 598
Bikes: Trek 970, Bianchi Volpe,Casati
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 269 Post(s)
Liked 45 Times
in
38 Posts
As it pertains to riding I guess ,,, a practical advice would be stay away from areas that are too congested and enclosed when you get off your bike ,, so if you're going on a long ride maybe pack enough water and enough food from your home , and don't stop off at the corner store where people sneeze on the rolling hot dog cooker ...😣

#83
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 12,684
Bikes: 2015 Workswell 066, 2014 Dawes Sheila, 1983 Cannondale 500, 1984 Raleigh Olympian, 2007 Cannondale Rize 4, 2017 Fuji Sportif 1 LE
Mentioned: 142 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6069 Post(s)
Liked 951 Times
in
539 Posts
Shoot, I ride around Looking for corona virus. I will kick its viral behind if I see it on the road.

#84
Senior Member
Gloom and Doom dude. Gloom and Doom. I'm pretty sure you've got the virus already. You better check yourself. Poor California. Please divide..... From the rest of us.

#85
Senior Member
I actually think this is no joke. Good question.. it sure seems to me the more people you are around in a confined space the riskier. Example cruise ships. I can't comment about California as your population is high so if you happen to bike in a high density area ,, who knows??
Last edited by BillyD; 03-06-20 at 08:00 AM. Reason: politics

#86
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 12,684
Bikes: 2015 Workswell 066, 2014 Dawes Sheila, 1983 Cannondale 500, 1984 Raleigh Olympian, 2007 Cannondale Rize 4, 2017 Fuji Sportif 1 LE
Mentioned: 142 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6069 Post(s)
Liked 951 Times
in
539 Posts
Zika, bird flu, swine flu, hantavirus, encephalitis, corona virus, SARs .... either the Earth is facing its seventh mass extinction in three decades, or most of this is media hype, and stores are loving the added income.

#87
I'm cross-chained
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: New England
Posts: 8,202
Bikes: Serotta Atlanta; 1994 Specialized Allez Pro; Giant OCR A1
Mentioned: 49 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4270 Post(s)
Liked 3,255 Times
in
1,858 Posts
Or, you know, it might be a disruptive event that is already having a worldwide economic impact and resulting in deaths already in the thousands and showing all signs that that number will grow exponentially. No, it's not end-times, but pretending it's nothing is just as irrational.
There's lots of groups that are going to have to take special precautions. Cyclists just don't happen to be one.

Likes For livedarklions:
#88
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 12,684
Bikes: 2015 Workswell 066, 2014 Dawes Sheila, 1983 Cannondale 500, 1984 Raleigh Olympian, 2007 Cannondale Rize 4, 2017 Fuji Sportif 1 LE
Mentioned: 142 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6069 Post(s)
Liked 951 Times
in
539 Posts
Flu is every bit as deadly .... and you know what is really a threat? Driving, with 30-40,000 killed per year (just in he U.S.)
I have a lot better chance of dying on a bike ride than from corona virus---and I have a history of respiratory infections.
Yeah, old and sickly folk are at greater risk .... but that is true for every virus.
I don't think the corona virus isn't real ... i think the hype is ridiculous.
Not sure how old some posters were .... but back in the day every new disease wasn't going to end life on the planet, and every hurricane wasn't the storm of the century .... nobody panicked when the skies got cloudy, nobody bought every sheet of plywood and toilet paper when it started raining .....
I worked in the news media for 15 years, and have been studying it longer than that .... I don't know how many people recall what life was like when"The News" was one of three programs (three channels) than came on every morning and twice at night, at dinner time and at 11 p.m. Back then, when there wasn't a need to constantly outbid the competition with mad craziness 24 hours a day, really big stuff and smaller stuff happened .... and everyone talked about it in calm, rational tones.
Nowadays everything is hype. Shouting is the normal conversational volume of the media, and screaming hysterically is the only way to cut through .... and people seem not to notice.
Bird fly, mad cow .... whatever. yeah, a bunch of farmers will lose. Katrina, New Orleans lost. Stuff happens. Chicxulub, the dinosaurs lost. And you know ... maybe some day, maybe soon, a really virulent disease will decimate humanity. Maybe corona virus is that disease .... or maybe humanity is that disease.
I tend to take a more thoughtful approach. I think I will go ride my bike later.
It's just life.
I have a lot better chance of dying on a bike ride than from corona virus---and I have a history of respiratory infections.
Yeah, old and sickly folk are at greater risk .... but that is true for every virus.
I don't think the corona virus isn't real ... i think the hype is ridiculous.
Not sure how old some posters were .... but back in the day every new disease wasn't going to end life on the planet, and every hurricane wasn't the storm of the century .... nobody panicked when the skies got cloudy, nobody bought every sheet of plywood and toilet paper when it started raining .....
I worked in the news media for 15 years, and have been studying it longer than that .... I don't know how many people recall what life was like when"The News" was one of three programs (three channels) than came on every morning and twice at night, at dinner time and at 11 p.m. Back then, when there wasn't a need to constantly outbid the competition with mad craziness 24 hours a day, really big stuff and smaller stuff happened .... and everyone talked about it in calm, rational tones.
Nowadays everything is hype. Shouting is the normal conversational volume of the media, and screaming hysterically is the only way to cut through .... and people seem not to notice.
Bird fly, mad cow .... whatever. yeah, a bunch of farmers will lose. Katrina, New Orleans lost. Stuff happens. Chicxulub, the dinosaurs lost. And you know ... maybe some day, maybe soon, a really virulent disease will decimate humanity. Maybe corona virus is that disease .... or maybe humanity is that disease.
I tend to take a more thoughtful approach. I think I will go ride my bike later.
It's just life.
Last edited by Maelochs; 03-06-20 at 08:40 AM.

Likes For Maelochs:
#89
Sunshine
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Des Moines, IA
Posts: 12,322
Bikes: '18 class built steel roadbike, '19 Fairlight Secan, '88 Schwinn Premis , Black Mountain Cycles Monstercross V4, '89 Novara Trionfo
Mentioned: 97 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 5036 Post(s)
Liked 2,361 Times
in
1,383 Posts

#90
Sunshine
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Des Moines, IA
Posts: 12,322
Bikes: '18 class built steel roadbike, '19 Fairlight Secan, '88 Schwinn Premis , Black Mountain Cycles Monstercross V4, '89 Novara Trionfo
Mentioned: 97 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 5036 Post(s)
Liked 2,361 Times
in
1,383 Posts
Its funny that half your group is dying from coronavirus?***

#91
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 29,199
Mentioned: 198 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12746 Post(s)
Liked 5,040 Times
in
2,597 Posts
I watched "Contagion" last night.

#92
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: 25 miles northwest of Boston
Posts: 24,862
Bikes: Bottecchia Sprint, GT Timberline 29r
Mentioned: 103 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 3724 Post(s)
Liked 854 Times
in
593 Posts
amazing. if I was making my college decision these days, I would base it on food alone & go the UMass Amherst hands-down. my kids didn't agree & went elsewhere, where they complained about the food until they got into apartments of their own

#93
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: 961' 42.28° N, 83.78° W (A2)
Posts: 2,344
Bikes: Mongoose Selous, Trek DS
Mentioned: 8 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 941 Post(s)
Liked 318 Times
in
188 Posts
Clearly I'm no epidemiologist, but I have access to the same publicly available data as everybody else, and am a halfway decent general purpose data analyst. This is what scientists do when they're faced with an interesting issue. I'm also using it to improve my data science skills. As of yesterday, reported cases of COVID-19 in the US were around 150, and the data are reasonably fitted to an exponential growth curve with a doubling time of around 5 or 6 days. That number has bounced around a bit for the past few days because each new data point changes the fit. It's only the "reported" cases, but it's also safe to assume that unreported cases are an additional number.
I can't give medical or health advice, but my approach at this point is to assume that nothing major is going to happen in my own town until after the college kids come back after spring break, which will have the effect of stirring the entire American petri dish. At that point, it will be prudent to assume that we don't know anything about the future progress of COVID-19 in the US until maybe a couple more weeks. Before then, and possibly thereafter, I'm personally going to assume that the air around my bike is less toxic than the air inside public transit, and I will actually require my kids to ride their bikes instead of taking the bus.
The only thing that can't be predicted from an exponential growth curve is where it will end. Clearly, the total population is an upper limit. Hubei province in China has topped out at roughly 0.14% of the population, but we don't know if this is due to the biology of COVID-19, or government and social response to the situation. Because of that, the data are not a good predictor of what's going to happen in the US.
My plan is to take it day by day, and to be guided by science and evidence to the extent possible.
Update: 221 cases as of 3/5, same basic curve.
I can't give medical or health advice, but my approach at this point is to assume that nothing major is going to happen in my own town until after the college kids come back after spring break, which will have the effect of stirring the entire American petri dish. At that point, it will be prudent to assume that we don't know anything about the future progress of COVID-19 in the US until maybe a couple more weeks. Before then, and possibly thereafter, I'm personally going to assume that the air around my bike is less toxic than the air inside public transit, and I will actually require my kids to ride their bikes instead of taking the bus.
The only thing that can't be predicted from an exponential growth curve is where it will end. Clearly, the total population is an upper limit. Hubei province in China has topped out at roughly 0.14% of the population, but we don't know if this is due to the biology of COVID-19, or government and social response to the situation. Because of that, the data are not a good predictor of what's going to happen in the US.
My plan is to take it day by day, and to be guided by science and evidence to the extent possible.
Update: 221 cases as of 3/5, same basic curve.


#94
royaloaker
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: se MIch.
Posts: 447
Bikes: 1938 claud butler,1983 Basso,teledyne titan,teocali super,nrs,1993 stumpjumper fsr,Paramountain,Paramount Buell,4 banger,Zaskar LE,Colnago Master Ibex MTB,1987ish,.etc....
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 155 Post(s)
Liked 183 Times
in
110 Posts

#95
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Easton, MA
Posts: 536
Bikes: Specialized Ruby Sport
Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 273 Post(s)
Liked 194 Times
in
115 Posts
I used he food to gt my dughter to go to uMass. She was leaning toward UNH. When we went up to visit, I sai, "Let's go check out town". I had never been to Durham. I was not impresed. After looking around, I asked her if she could live for 4 years without Chinese food. She didn't think she could. Amherst is such a great college town.
Last edited by NomarsGirl; 03-06-20 at 09:52 AM.

Likes For NomarsGirl:
#97
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 29,199
Mentioned: 198 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12746 Post(s)
Liked 5,040 Times
in
2,597 Posts

#98
I'm cross-chained
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: New England
Posts: 8,202
Bikes: Serotta Atlanta; 1994 Specialized Allez Pro; Giant OCR A1
Mentioned: 49 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4270 Post(s)
Liked 3,255 Times
in
1,858 Posts
I spent last weekend visiting my son at Amherst with my younger son. It is incredibly hard not to want to eat about 10,000 calories at every meal there, much better than most restaurants. Except that the restaurants in the area are fantastic.

Likes For livedarklions:
#99
I'm cross-chained
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: New England
Posts: 8,202
Bikes: Serotta Atlanta; 1994 Specialized Allez Pro; Giant OCR A1
Mentioned: 49 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4270 Post(s)
Liked 3,255 Times
in
1,858 Posts
I used he food to gt my dughter to go to uMass. She was leaning toward UNH. When we went up to visit, I sai, "Let's go check out town". I had never been to Durham. I was not impresed. After looking around, I asked her if she could live for 4 years without Chinese food. She didn't think she could. Amherst is such a great college town.
There's Chinese food in Durham. Bad Chinese food at the back end of a mall plaza.

Likes For Bassmanbob: