skidder

I kinda think there will always be some low-end mechanical shifter groups (like Shimano's Tourney group). After all, how you going to make a cost-conscious beach cruiser with a 7 or 8 or 9 speed drivetrain. Certainly a manufacturer like Shimano is not going to produce a spendy Di2 system for an end manufacturer to put into that kind of build.

PeteHski

Electric will not just dominate racing, it will more than likely dominate all mid-high end applications. 105 going electric has pretty much sealed that deal already. The lower end of the market will likely remain mechanical for the foreseeable future. Bike manufacturers will likely stop making provision for mechanical shifting on their high end frames as we already are starting to see in some cases.

So Ekar may well be the last new highish-end mechanical group. An electric version can’t be that far away.

PeteHski

I agree, but this wasn’t the question asked.

mattcalifornia

Texas Cyclesport usually has some of the best deals on Campy groupsets. (BTW, I assume you mean mechanical shifting and hydraulic disc brakes -- not mechanical disc brakes). https://www.texascyclesport.com/camp...-upgrade-kits/

tyrion

I think Shimano will realize it's a mistake not to offer something better than Tiagra that doesn't require batteries.

dedhed

Batteries are batteries. Someone will be recelling them like they do with cordless power tools.

mschwett 

you can still get batteries for niche digital cameras that are 20+ years old - cameras that it’s very hard to think of compelling reasons for anyone to still be using. decent bikes with electronic groups will hold up far better than digital cameras of that era given how slow the pace of change is in the bike world. what makes you think batteries for groupsets that sell in the hundreds of thousands or millions of copies won’t be available? batteries are very, very simple and the world is full of manufacturers who make them in cheap runs of every shape imaginable.

BTinNYC 

11 speed Ultegra mechanical is flawless.

Racing Dan

There are many possible ways to obsolete electronic gear systems other than unavailability of batteries. Some we have already seen in both Shimano and SRAM variants (and likely Campag too). For instance unavailability of Shimano 10s parts, forcing you to to upgrade the entire gear system to 11s in case of a broken derailleur, or SRAM that in certain situations forces the user to replace much more than the one broken part, on account of incompatibilities between older and newer parts.

chaadster

Aren’t 10spd Shimano derailleurs still available? I almost bought one the other day for a vintage Trek 520 renovation, and didn’t have any trouble finding them; I looked at a 105 unit on Amazon specifically, but in the end decided to keep rolling the old Deore DX 7spd since my kid doesn’t really care anyway (*sob*).

Racing Dan

New 10s di2 derailleurs? No.

mpetry912 

Think he means 10 speed DI2... especially the brifters and derailleurs

/markp

mpetry912 

<Warning thread HIjack> but I will show relevance

as I read thru this thread I keep thinking about "Diminishing Returns". When does "more" stop getting "better"?

In my fleet I have a DI2 bike and I love it. I also have several bikes with old school downtube analog shifing. Rode one this week and really enjoyed it. Brought back memories of a simpler time.

the cycling industrial complex, in its never ending quest to sell us more new stuff every year, has I think reached a place where they cannot offer the marginal returns that we received in previous years. For example, when we were riding 6 speeds, the evolution from 7 to 8 to 9... each incremental offering really made a difference in the riding experience. Ditto for the introduction of brifters (integrated shifter / brake) so you didn't have to reach way down to shift. That really made a difference in the riding experience. As did DI2.

HOWEVER as I watch the evolution from 10 to 11 to 12 to... 13 ? (really ?) I gotta ask myself is this proposed new upgrade really going to make a difference in my riding experience ? Or at least enough of a difference to justify the cost of yet again upgrading shifters, wheel, etc to another "System" that is not in any way backward compatible ?

Clearly not as big a difference as going from 7 speed down tube shifters to 8 speed brifters. Clearly not. the point of marginal diminishing returns has been reached. At least in my view.

Several very dedicated lifetime cyclists that I know, in building their "very last bike with the best of everything" chose Campy 9 speed (as did I) as their favorite choice, at least to me it is the least fussy, smoothest running group. This is my "sweet spot". The Shimano 11 speed in mechanical or DI2 is also very good and might be an alternate choice.

But how much further is that evolution going to continue? I think not a lot.

While I understand the job of "product marketing" is to offer incremental upgrades every year to justify a continuing revenue stream I think the industry has got itself into a place where there really isn't much more value to be derived from the continual evolution of "more speeds" and while we're on the topic, lighter weight. they have gone about as far as they can go.

Problem is there are a lot of stranded bikes out there with parts that are no longer available since they've been obsoleted by the continuing evolution of the market. There's always the used market, sure. But I think this was the intent of the original thread, what was your personal "Sweet spot" and what parts to you lay in to keep it going.

Discuss.

</hijack>

/markp

PeteHski

Let’s review in 5 years time. Shimano are conservative and for a while pushed back at the idea of 105 Di2. But then they realised the market really wants electronic groups at that level and now here we are. At most they may offer a mechanical group to compete with Ekar. But I don’t see another mechanical road group at that level or above.

Ogsarg

The transition to electric shifting is likely inevitable in my view if the cost to manufacture continue to drop vs. mechanical and more and more people are exposed to it and realize that it's not so scary. All this talk about how you can't get home if you're Di2 stops working, etc, is all the same stuff people said about electronic ignition and fuel injection in cars and other than maybe a few super retro-grouches, you really don't come across many people that don't accept that those systems are vastly more reliable than their predecessors and offer a dramatic improvement in performance.

If the cost to manufacture electric shifting does continue to fall, it will find it's way on to lower cost bikes and at some point, I suspect we'll see it on bikes at Walmart. Just like you can't buy a new car with points or a carburetor, you may not be able to find a new bike with mechanical shifting, but that is pretty far away in my view. Even after that happens, there will be small companies that make mechanical groups and parts for the people that want to keep their older bikes on the road.

Troul 

Ultegra or 105 will likely be it, with a different brand name on it.

If one of the big hot shot brands could give some of their current mid-high level group sets a facelift, it might extend mechanical shifting out a few more decades. IMO; a facelift that I would like to see done is making crank gears, cages, & brackets contain less crevices, eliminate casting voids, & improve upon areas that may not ever need disassembly. For example, the inboard side of most modern cranks have that "raw" look & it likes to capture gunk or just is tedious to clean (OCD I know) where if it had a smooth surface like the exposed drive side often has, it would be more attractive & simpler to detail. Then you have the mounting hardware for the spider to the crank gear. I'm sure its a cost thing, just like everything, but the spacers/shims between the crank gear & spider adds another seam to bleed out whatever it can contain, easier to lose a piece & then have to hunt for it online somewhere, or it drives hackery to ensue. If all one had to deal with was the metal thru-hole hardware & not the plastic spacers, it would also keep things simple & cleaner looking. Might even provide more durability. Same goes for rear der bracketry/cages. Less is more, as in, less parts to keep track of, better the chances it'll go back together correctly & be better maintained. I remember a long time ago needing to cut thru some unpaved area & a piece of a twig managed to find its way on the "arm" section of the rear der that sits on the inside kinda & aims downward. The twig was just stubborn enough to mess with the operation & not "fall" out. I had to use a pick tool in order to dig it out quickly or keep jabbing & jamming my finger at it. Lastly, the front der; Have you ever tried to "wipe" clean the backside of the armature/cage on a modern road bicycle? Probably had to remove the rear wheel didn't ya? That's crappy. It's stamped metal while having the plastic guide riveted to it. All the raw areas on it inboard side collects junk over time. I don't pressure wash that area, don't recommend it either. If it was smooth without the indentures, ya could just wipe it clean.

squirtdad

my crystal ball says:

1) Even if the big guys give up on mechanical shifting, other, smaller companies with provide product for this market, Rivendell and Rene Herse are active examples
2) rim brakes will make a small resurgence as people realize there is cost to the stronger forks needed to support disc braking. The need for brakes will again be met by smaller companies
3) People will go to more custom or smaller frames, expecially if the do the math and realize that the total cost is not more that for a high end production bike
4) BSO will go to 1x electronic shifting the second it is cheaper to by the electronic gear than it is to use mechancial and run cables.....this is maybe 5 years away

Leinster

Do Rivendell and Herse make actual derailleurs, though?

Even if/when electronic shifting becomes cheaper and easier to manufacture than mechanical, I think there’s always going to be a niche market for cable-actuated stuff. If that means Shimano/Campag maintaining a “heritage” Tiagra line, or Campag bringing back Xenon or Athena, or SRAM starting a new “Tradshifter” line, probably a group that is integrated across road/gravel/mtb for simplicity (like exage kinda was).

If not, some of the likes of Microshift or L-Twoo will jump in and take some of that action.

squirtdad

Rivendell appears to be in final stages of pre production, Rene Herse has made produced and sold out their derailler.
and there are companies like Ingrid https://ingrid.bike/product-category/products/

so there are options out there

Sy Reene

The issue right now is that mech exists in higher level groupsets because they need them to meet a pricepoint.
If, for example, you had a jump from Tiagra Mech to Shimano 105 Di2, you basically have a $500 vs $1500 groupset. That's a big gap price wise. Solution will be of course to increase the price of Tiagra mech when they bump it to 11 speed. Problem solved for Shimano. But then consumers will have $1k Tiagra groupsets when they were $500. Sora will go to 10s, etc..

don compton

It's over. You can still buy mechanical groups, but they are NOS. I have had great success with Shimano Ultegra R8000 and I am going to buy 2 groupsets ( maybe piece by piece and rim brake) and I am covered. I have so many compatible wheels, I can work on it, and I like it. Maybe Campagnolo is still making some, but , after years of sticking with Campagnolo and finally realizing that when they entered the brifter era, their equipment was so far below the quality and durability of Shimano Ultegra and Dura Ace , I bit the bullet. Electric Shimano is great stuff, but I like to work on my bike

biker128pedal

Good question on the batteries. 10 years from now even. Will there be third party services to replace the cells. Batteries Plus would do it like for one’s smart phone.

Chuck M 

I feel like I'd sol old that I think if I bought a new bike with electronic shifting, the batteries may outlive me.

rollagain

That's all very nice, but did you notice that it won't fit on an off-the-shelf frame? It comes with its own proprietary braze-on, which needs to be--brazed on (steel only) ... and does that also come with a locating fixture to clamp that part exactly where it's needed, or do you have to strip your whole frame and send it to R/H for them to do it--and then repaint? Or are they going to sell you an entire frame (that can only use their RD)? I predict these will be museum pieces very soon.

Talk about high-end ...

Germany_chris

The niche that Jan lives in has no issues with any of the "problems" you point out, it's not intended to be mass market.

====

I have no problems with electronic shifting but I'll only junp on the train when there is a non-proprietary solution that doesn't strap a box on my chainstay.