You're underestimating the rate of technological change. There's a push to get rid of ICE, but just 120-150 years ago gas and diesel engines were brand new technology. Levers and wheels have stuck around for a while, anything fancier is liable to be a fad.

But there isn’t a push to go back to earlier technology with cars, as you’re predicting with derailleurs going back to mechanical.

Change is rarely linear.

Non linear change is not the same as regression.

Sometimes it is. We just tend to forget about the discarded progress.

Possibly but I still doubt it is going away soon. Long term possibly but I really doubt that.

I hate DoubleTap so I welcome AXS from SRAM luckily I generally prefer Shimano for my road stuff so not a problem but even there I do prefer Di2. If they could figure out the ergonomics of the SRAM levers along with the brake lever being just a brake lever and have some way to shift both gears that isn't DoubleTap I would want a mechanical road group again but honestly road electronics are excellent. For flat bar stuff mechanical is still fine flat bar shifters are excellent all over from trigger to thumbies so not a problem.

This is the same sentiment you get from the old heads who say that cars were so much better when they had carburetors and points ignition because "you could fix it with a couple of screwdrivers by the side of the road" ignoring the fact that a) you had to make those adjustments frequently enough to make it was " just a thing" and b) the odometers only had 5 digits because it wasn't expected that it would last more than 100k.
A typical daily driver, built in the last 15 years will do 200k practically without opening the hood.
Tell me again how the old stuff was so much better?

Like your previous post, this doesn't add any support for your unrealistic prediction.
In this case it's not just a sentiment for older technology, it's a prediction that we will return to older technology in the not-too-distant future. Pure silliness.

Digital audio is clearly here to stay, the current fad for vinyl LPs notwithstanding, as are electric door locks and windows in cars.

I just looked up "electric fishing" and discovered that that's an area where Shimano, among other brands, is selling a lot of equipment.

Can anyone here think of an example of unambiguous regression from state-of-the-art technology in some area of consumer products (for example) to an earlier stage of that technology? Tried, couldn't think of any.

I'll probably never buy a bike with electronic shifting, but I'm serenely confident that mechanical shifting will end up being used only for low-end bikes within 5 or 10 years.

If this whole thing was a troll -- well played.

I am well aware that my prediction is wishful. I am also aware that manufacturers monitor, on some level, forums and YouTube comments. If all of the comments amount to "electronic shifting is the inevitable, universal, and desirable future" that's what will happen. The chance is slim that the groupset that I want will be available by the time I get my next bike, but I can increase the ever-so-infinitesimal chance that it will be available by the time I get another bike or groupset after that.

Yeah, the cycling industry is continuing down the path to electronic shifting because they have read that people on online forums think it's inevitable.

You're wasting a lot of spaghetti and messing up the walls.

I've only ridden DoubleTap around the block a few times, but I was very impressed. I tried both Shimano and SRAM electronic at the same time. First, I didn't like the feel. Second, for the SRAM I don't like needing 2 hands to shift. I spend about 3 minutes every half hour, or 10% of my riding time, eating and drinking, and thus riding with one hand on the bars. Where I ride there are lots of little rollers where I want to go up or down a few cogs on the back or switch chainrings. With mechanical shifting I can always do one or the other, but even if that's possible with electronic shifting it's certainly not the default.

Huh? What on Earth are you talking about?

You need just as many hands - and the same hands - to shift with a Di2 drivetrain as with any integrated mechanical drivetrain. In fact, you can program a Di2 drivetrain so that everything can be done with just one of the shift units. If you want to always have one of your hands free, you can do that. You can even choose which hand.

Shimano, yes. I like everything else about SRAM, though.

Regardless, if you can’t snack every half hour with any drivetrain, that’s really your problem - nothing to do with the bike. It’s not difficult.

Ahh only a short time on it.
In terms of electronic stuff you are way off. Not sure where you got any of that. With Di2 you can set the buttons to do whatever you want or add extra buttons and use synchro shift. With SRAM you can easily add extra buttons and one side shifts up and one side shifts down and hit them both to shift at the front.

Regardless though you generally need two hands to shift most anything we have set up stuff for single handed individuals but it was Di2 or a 1x set up but that is less common and if I am building a bike for eating on it probably isn't a road bike.

I understand that my skepticism of electronic shifting may be misplaced. What I don't understand is the apparent hostility toward my skepticism. Is electronic shifting really that much better for a recreational rider, or are people trying to justify the money they've spent?

I think your prediction that high end will go back to cable, once entry level goes electronic, is bonkers and not based in any sort of reality.
But I have heard even more unrealistic things on here, so it really doesn't warrant hostility from me.
As for why others are hostile to some of your comments, well typically people get irate when they are conversing with someone or a topic that is so illogical it is difficult to discuss calmly. Take thst for what its worth.

Probably because your opinions are misinformed and they're being used in an attempt to support prior silly statements.

I was not trying to be illogical or unreasonable. I apologize for causing offense, and hold on to the slim hope that my aspirational predictions will someday come true.

Yes certainly misplaced but not trying to be hostile about it.

Not trying to justify the money I have spent, I love that bike, it shifts like a dream and has been basically maintenance free in terms of shifting (though haven't really had to touch the brakes either) for 8 years. It works really well and I can program the buttons to do what I want which is super nice. I think yes it is a good option for many riders. It is not needed but it is really nice and can help those who maybe aren't as good at shifting or those who just want an easy way to have a bike. I haven't replaced cables and housing for my shifting or adjusted anything since I built the thing. Pretty much can just get on it and ride most of the time. A little puff of air in the tires and some normal cleaning and lubrication of the chain and swapping out brake pads every so often (leave the shoes in place and swap some pads).

No one is offended. Just puzzled.

Mutually, then. To quote my brother on an entirely unrelated topic many years ago: "I have my doubts, and wish to keep them." Cheers!

Wishful thinking is not unreasonable, but your earlier predicted narrative was complete nonsense. It added some comedy value to the thread though.

Bookmarked for 3 years time to see how your predictions are going 😂

Pointing out your ignorance is not hostile.