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-   -   Trek in Trouble? (https://www.bikeforums.net/general-cycling-discussion/1318747-trek-trouble.html)

big john 02-20-26 03:25 PM


Originally Posted by indyfabz (Post 23699337)
I haven’t heard the details. Anything bike-related survive?

I don't know but he said he was imposing a 10% tax on everything. If any existing tariffs were not cancelled by the SCOTUS ruling, the 10% would be added on top of those. I got a couple tires from Europe last week and there was $10 added to each tire, so if that tariff was not removed by the ruling, those tires would now be another $6 more per tire.

veganbikes 02-20-26 03:31 PM

Trek needs to get out of owned retail in failing markets find someone to take over those shops and close out at whatever they can get. That will help them greatly. They went in took the soul out of the bike shop and lost money on that venture and are wondering why? If they had just kept selling to all these places they would be fine but they wanted to have their name on them and that absolutely killed them. That is why Specialized slowed down on that, it is terrible for business. The reason people go into bike shops is for the soul for the uniqueness a corporate store is basically a bunch of zombies and the fun and the reason why we all work in them is gone. I don't wish ill on Trek because they provide my POS system but they do need to change things around or they will keep falling.

tomato coupe 02-20-26 03:41 PM


Originally Posted by big john (Post 23699355)
I don't know but he said he was imposing a 10% tax on everything. If any existing tariffs were not cancelled by the SCOTUS ruling, the 10% would be added on top of those.

Does that mean those poor penguins on the two islands in the Indian Ocean are now tariffed at 20%? How can they afford that?!?!?

GamblerGORD53 02-20-26 04:34 PM

So they'll have to move to Pittsburg.

Pantah 02-20-26 05:14 PM


Originally Posted by tomato coupe (Post 23699367)
Does that mean those poor penguins on the two islands in the Indian Ocean are now tariffed at 20%? How can they afford that?!?!?

It's tough out there for a penguin these days. If they just stop eating avocado toast and cut out that Starbucks run every morning, then they can afford the latest and greatest Trek has to offer!

GeezyRider 02-20-26 06:14 PM


Originally Posted by prj71 (Post 23699164)
.

This behemoth of the bike industry is in trouble. It’s no secret within the industry that Trek is crippled by enormous overstock and debt servicing costs on that inventory. But a former Trek employee at the managerial level told Escape Collective that Trek's situation is particularly dire. “It’s been a solid year and a half of just all red on the daily sales reports. Just down versus prior year, things are moving slowly.”

Maybe this is what happens when "worlds collide".

big john 02-20-26 06:29 PM


Originally Posted by tomato coupe (Post 23699367)
Does that mean those poor penguins on the two islands in the Indian Ocean are now tariffed at 20%? How can they afford that?!?!?

I heard those penguins are gaming the system. They probably even vote.

skidder 02-20-26 09:46 PM

I'm not interested in a lot of the bicycle models and model segments these days, nor the new tech that's been added to them, and that's the same with all the brands. Not interested in disc brakes, electronic shifting, carbon fiber frames/forks/wheels/seat tubes/other parts, through-axles, tiny front single chainrings with 11-12 gear cassettes in back. And not interested in something that I cannot fix & maintain by myself at home with a regular tool set and a few simple specialty tools. Nope, I'm not in the market for a new bicycle and don't expect to be for the foreseeable future.

JW Fas 02-20-26 11:44 PM

I'm sure Trek's demise has nothing to do with the fact that their cheapest Madone is $2900 and sports Shimano 105 mechanical shifting and crappy wheels. /s

Trek's ego got really big when Lance Armstrong was "winning" the Grand Tour, and they let the fame go to their heads. The chickens are simply coming home to roost.

MinnMan 02-21-26 12:26 AM


Originally Posted by noimagination (Post 23699343)
Many companies, not just Trek, not just bicycle companies, tend to do this. Everyone from McDonalds, to IBM, to Bed, Bath and Beyond, to Forever 21, etc. etc. There is a surge in demand, and they gear up the business as if that surge will continue indefinitely when, obviously, it won't.

For many years, there was one REI store near me. Then, suddenly, there were four - full-sized stores, not just outlets or annexes. Now, just as suddenly, we're back down to one (not the same as the one that was there for years). I'm sure the inventory from the 3 closed stores didn't get sold, or just evaporate. It's still somewhere, and REI has to pay for it (and, pay to store it until they do so).

There are exceptions, of course. For example, I'm old enough to remember when Coors was not available east of the Mississippi. Then, they (I think) started brewing and bottling further east, and expanded to the east coast That expansion was sustainable because they increased their geographic reach to a new population.

AFAIK, REI still pays its 10% dividend to members, so things can't be too bad for them.

MinnMan 02-21-26 12:31 AM

I bought a Trek 2.1 about 15 years ago, but since then my idea of a desirable bike has changed a lot. I can't imagine buying any Trek now. More recent purchases have been a Canyon and two Salsas.

Salsa is a QBP product, Canyon of course a direct to consumer brand. And they are all struggling. Canyon had big layoffs last month and QBP has gone through a bunch of rounds of them in the last year.

My point is that it's not because Trek isn't cool and doesn't have products attractive to consumers. They are all struggling.

Mvcrash 02-21-26 05:54 AM


Originally Posted by LesterOfPuppets (Post 23699239)
$630 for Trek's entry HT nowadays. But yes, pretty much all bicycle companies are struggling, even some big eBike companies.

New laws requiring insurance, registrations, et...are going to hurt ebikes big time sooner or later.

Sy Reene 02-21-26 07:22 AM


Originally Posted by tomato coupe (Post 23699331)
You're comparing bikes that aren't actually equivalent. One is not a current model (Polygon), and the other is a current model (Trek) that has other components (e.g. wheels) that are more expensive.

I think they're still less expensive. E.g. you could compare
this
DOMANE SL7
vs
https://www.polygonbikes.com/2026-st...di2-road-bike/

Jughed 02-21-26 07:29 AM

Tip of the iceberg.

Not just Trek, not just bikes…luxury toys, RV’s, Auto’s - houses -

Absolutely everything is priced accordingly to match 2 full time incomes and mass amounts of credit/debt.

There is no more “up”, there is no more (well very little) to extract from the general population.

Trek, other brands… how do they clear overstock without tanking the prices of new models? How do they pay their vendors/suppliers/manufacturers? And how do all of them react and survive after some of their biggest customers go belly up. And so on and so on down the line…

Multiply that by all the other industries that are in the same boat… pop. The auto industry is a house of cards- once again…

I fully expect a pop coming soon, a big pop.

Jughed 02-21-26 07:36 AM

Oh, and prices will come down on the back side of all of this… I dunno.

2007-8 the big pickup truck and boat industry exploded.

A few smaller production boat brand survived, a spattering of the big brands came out the other end… lower prices? Hell no. They took existing models, loaded them up with excess gizmos, luxuries (on fishing boats none the less) - cut production and jacked prices thru the roof. Instead of extracting a little from many, they extracted more from few.

Trucks - unsustainable prices in 2006 right? They failed and then said - hold my beer and watch this. Essentially doubled the prices by putting more gizmos on the trucks and offer longer term financing.

if our sector of bikes pops, and it probably will - I expect the same on the back side.

jack pot 02-21-26 07:38 AM

Covid:( Tariffs:( boomers:(inflation:(supersize culture:(infrastructure:( ......... bicycles & bicycle lifestyles in the US are for the few (bikes like motos are considered "recreational" not transportational vehicles in the US) ... big brands like Specialized and Trek aint got no future unless some conglomerate or equity outfit keeps them going for "other than bicycling" reasons .. the future for the US cycling community is probably with small independent bicycle craftsmen who will thrive more as the big brands overprice inferior quality in an effort to satisfy their benefactor$$$ ... bicycles aint going away but a bunch of familiar bicycle brands are gonna be gone or at best be aint what they used to be ............................ BUY FROM THE SMALL GUYS AND RIDE IN STYLE

Sy Reene 02-21-26 07:38 AM

Maybe this cutting edge new design will help?
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...dd1aa181e4.png

mercator 02-21-26 07:43 AM

I love my old trek - well, it says Lemond on the downtube but whatever.
I just bought a new mountain bike and never even considered trek (or spec) - elbows up yo!
I suspect a lot of non-US buyers feel the same.

Trakhak 02-21-26 08:10 AM


Originally Posted by mercator (Post 23699594)
I love my old trek - well, it says Lemond on the downtube but whatever.
I just bought a new mountain bike and never even considered trek (or spec) - elbows up yo!
I suspect a lot of non-US buyers feel the same.

According to Trek, about 60% of their bikes, parts, and accessories are sold in other countries. For all we know, it may be that Trek still enjoys some of the same kind of appeal in Europe that European bike brands have had in this country for decades.

Tariff blowback may affect that, of course. Or may not, depending on how the current situation shakes out.

Trakhak 02-21-26 08:15 AM


Originally Posted by jack pot (Post 23699589)
Covid:( Tariffs:( boomers:(inflation:(supersize culture:(infrastructure:( ......... bicycles & bicycle lifestyles in the US are for the few (bikes like motos are considered "recreational" not transportational vehicles in the US) ... big brands like Specialized and Trek aint got no future unless some conglomerate or equity outfit keeps them going for "other than bicycling" reasons .. the future for the US cycling community is probably with small independent bicycle craftsmen who will thrive more as the big brands overprice inferior quality in an effort to satisfy their benefactor$$$ ... bicycles aint going away but a bunch of familiar bicycle brands are gonna be gone or at best be aint what they used to be ............................ BUY FROM THE SMALL GUYS AND RIDE IN STYLE

Looking forward to the time when small builders are selling dozens of bikes each every year! Dozens, I say!

bblair 02-21-26 08:24 AM

I bought my Trek 5200 probably 25 years ago, 'cause that's what Lance rode. But the shop also sold other brands, not only bikes but other stuff too. Now that all stores are corporate, everything in the darn store is Trek. Bikes, shoes, even socks. Not that I can go to a Chevy dealer and also drive a Kia and a Honda.

I bought my last bike at a small LBS will do the same for my next. Trek stores just feel too much like a car dealer.

Jughed 02-21-26 08:40 AM

My LBS sells both Trek and Specialized. Non corporate store.

in my garage there are 3 Treks and 2 Specialized purchased there, and I used to have a few more which were sold off or donated. Plus a Giant and a Lemond…

I don’t care about brand names - that kind of stuff is almost down personal preference… take any decent brand and put the same rider on any of the bikes and the outcomes will be the same. They are all pretty much good to great bikes, across most brands.

Trek going down, if they do - is a bigger issue than a brand name. Brand preference, or our personal feelings don’t really matter.

In the end we will be left with fewer choices and probably even higher prices.

cyccommute 02-21-26 10:51 AM


Originally Posted by Trakhak (Post 23699619)
Looking forward to the time when small builders are selling dozens of bikes each every year! Dozens, I say!

And starting at the low, low price of $9000:rolleyes: I have nothing against small builders. I own 4 bikes from small local builders but they aren’t something that is going to get the regular person on a bike nor are they built for transportation purposes.

MinnMan 02-21-26 02:52 PM


Originally Posted by Jughed (Post 23699582)
Tip of the iceberg.

Not just Trek, not just bikes…luxury toys, RV’s, Auto’s - houses -

Absolutely everything is priced accordingly to match 2 full time incomes and mass amounts of credit/debt.

There is no more “up”, there is no more (well very little) to extract from the general population.

Trek, other brands… how do they clear overstock without tanking the prices of new models? How do they pay their vendors/suppliers/manufacturers? And how do all of them react and survive after some of their biggest customers go belly up. And so on and so on down the line…

Multiply that by all the other industries that are in the same boat… pop. The auto industry is a house of cards- once again…

I fully expect a pop coming soon, a big pop.

Yeah, well, maybe. But I'm not sure this is right. Statistics show that overall consumer spending is rising, driven by increased spending by the well-off and not counterbalanced by decreases in spending by the less fortunate. There is rising income inequality, meaning maybe that fewer can afford expensive discretionary items such as new bicycles. But if that could feasibly be balanced by the well-off buying more super-bikes.

You could argue that what the bike manufactures need is less income inequality so that more people could afford their bikes, but if consumer spending overall is going up, then some other sector must be prospering.

Probably any further discussion along these lines would need to go to P&R.

rsbob 02-21-26 03:43 PM


Originally Posted by big john (Post 23699326)
Then POTUS came out and executive ordered another 10% global tariff on top of any that survived the SCOTUS ruling.

And he just raised it to 15%.


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