Trek in Trouble?
 

For a year and a half, Trek’s internal daily sales performance dashboards have been “all red” – down year on year every day as the tail of the bicycle industry bust proves much longer than the boom that preceded it. Then, on Monday, January 12th, those dashboards turned green; but any celebration or sense that there is light at the end of the tunnel was put on hold. Staff had already been asked to work from home on Tuesday and Wednesday of that week, with a significant round of layoffs on the way.

As Trek prepares to mark its 50th anniversary, the company is simultaneously grappling with layoffs, excess inventory, and a business model built for a market that no longer exists.

This behemoth of the bike industry is in trouble. It’s no secret within the industry that Trek is crippled by enormous overstock and debt servicing costs on that inventory. But a former Trek employee at the managerial level told Escape Collective that Trek's situation is particularly dire. “It’s been a solid year and a half of just all red on the daily sales reports. Just down versus prior year, things are moving slowly.”


https://escapecollective.com/layoffs...is-in-trouble/

Well, I've done my part to help them. Bought a new bike from my local Trek shop last week, along with almost $1K in various accessories.

Just bought a new gravel bike and I did not even consider Trek's offerings. Far too expensive for the specs. It was an easy and hard pass. I can say that for all the major players. Their business models and prices are just flat-out ridiculous.

How do their current sales compare to the pre-COVID sales?

It doesn't make much sense to compare current sales to the sales during the boom (which was the result of a hundred year event).

I've always found Trek among the most uninspiring of the major brands. They just feel very lowest-common-denominator to me, which is why I've only owned one Trek and have done very little to help their bottom line.
The news in OP's post got the same reaction from me as most of their bikes: "Meh."

Similar posts regularly show on musicians' websites, but about the Beatles.

I volunteer with a former bicycle company area rep and he says that all of the bike companies are in trouble. Sales have been incredibly flat for new bikes A lot of the problem is due to overstocking the year after Covid but a whole lot of the problem is being driven by tariffs. Where an entry level mountain bike 2 years ago was in the $400 to $500 range, they are now in the $800 range. That’s why some shops are dipping into the used market.

$630 for Trek's entry HT nowadays. But yes, pretty much all bicycle companies are struggling, even some big eBike companies.

The US' tariffs on Taiwan, tariffs on aluminum and steel, and ban on Giant bicycles, all took a huge toll on mass market bicycle sales.

Done my part: bought 2 Treks this year so far.

Sales comparisons: it should be obvious that sales in 2025 would have been down relative to the previous year, and the year before and the year before. Covid was exceedingly rare boom event for outdoor activities and associated sales, and everyone who was even remotely involved in the industry knew that this could not have lasted before folks got back 'normal'. Plus ebikes, domestic protectionist-induced trade wars, government spending-induced inflation and the inexorable aging of the population. Plus kids having higher priorities these days such as Roblox and Tik Tok.

Now the big-3 brands have to deal with a perhaps greater threat: that the 'offshore' brands are making product that rivals or exceeds the specs and quality of even the elite-level domestic brands. Kitted out with UCI stickers, ridden by pro teams, and available direct-to consumer at a much lower cost.

This morning the SCOTUS declared the vast majority of those tariffs illegal. Not getting political here. Just disseminating the news.

$600 is supposed to get you a whole bike in 2026?? LOL
C$194 got me 2 tires. 2 Dyad rims were another $344. Spokes were $100. Tubes $15 ea. All WAY up 50 or 60% in 5 years.
TREK is suffering because they are out of fashion and have the exclusive dealer model likely.
The only bikes selling are ironically $3,000 e-bikes or newbie bikes that have the useless idiotic steep slope frames. Many are BMC.

Funny you should mention that. I spent a lot of years as a musician and never really understood the Beatles lovefest either.
Maybe it's just me. :lol:

Yeah. Yesterday somebody posted about Polygon bikes. Their Strattos S7X is a carbon road bike with 105 Di2, hydraulic disk brakes, thru axle wheels, for $1999.
The equivalent Trek Madone SL with 105Di2 is $4500.

I believe the Beatles lovefest stems from being first on the scene with pop rock. The music is OK, not fantastic, but easy and fun to play at a party, and everyone can sing along with the lyrics because everyone knows them.
Take this with a grain of salt as I have no ear for Led Zeppelin either.

Buy used. There's zillions of them out there

It’s not just you.

I’m no Zep fan either.

Add Taylor Swift, and you've got the standard just-sayin' trifecta.

Then POTUS came out and executive ordered another 10% global tariff on top of any that survived the SCOTUS ruling.

The bike industry has seen ups and down for the last 50 years and I lived through each one of them.

Things are tough today, yes, but compared to 1980/1981? Not even close, and I was working in a bike/cross country ski shop back then and saw it first-hand. In 1981 interest rate hit 18%! Yes, that's 18%. Today it's in the 5.x percent range. There were no jobs back then. Yeah, I had a job but I knew how to build and repair bikes and fit and mount bindings and repair old wooden skis too.

The questions that should be asked are:

• What is Trek prepared (or willing) to do to weather this financial storm?
• Can they find a creative solution?
• Do they have a plan with contingencies, and contingencies for the contingencies? - In other words, do they have a "Plan C"?
• How about an aggressive trade-in marketing plan and donate the trade-ins to charities and write them off their taxes? That could be done at the local level and could offset the losses on the new bikes getting purchased.

The short version is Trek has been through one of these cycles before, maybe not thing long, but they've seen this before. They need to determine what they are prepared to do if they want to survive.

You're comparing bikes that aren't actually equivalent. One is not a current model (Polygon), and the other is a current model (Trek) that has other components (e.g. wheels) that are more expensive.

I haven’t heard the details. Anything bike-related survive?

Many companies, not just Trek, not just bicycle companies, tend to do this. Everyone from McDonalds, to IBM, to Bed, Bath and Beyond, to Forever 21, etc. etc. There is a surge in demand, and they gear up the business as if that surge will continue indefinitely when, obviously, it won't.

For many years, there was one REI store near me. Then, suddenly, there were four - full-sized stores, not just outlets or annexes. Now, just as suddenly, we're back down to one (not the same as the one that was there for years). I'm sure the inventory from the 3 closed stores didn't get sold, or just evaporate. It's still somewhere, and REI has to pay for it (and, pay to store it until they do so).

There are exceptions, of course. For example, I'm old enough to remember when Coors was not available east of the Mississippi. Then, they (I think) started brewing and bottling further east, and expanded to the east coast That expansion was sustainable because they increased their geographic reach to a new population.

Woo, lots of Trek-bashers here. I think they do a good job, except that their higher-end models seem VERY expensive compared to their entry models. Maybe as a RESULT of aggressive pricing on the low-end models?

I just bought my 2nd new Trek in 3 years; both great bikes. Good component specs, reasonable decisions in design and great service from my local shop.

Trek supports a lot of cycling initiatives in Wisconsin, the local Trek Store sponsors my local bike club. They're hosting our open club meeting next week and have a bike fitter visiting from Milwaukee. I'll support them as much as I can.