tandempower

If there was an upsurge in menial service jobs, that would defy my prediction, since I am predicting streamlining of work processes and a corresponding rise in free time, not growth in superfluous services that create more (inefficient) busy work.

tandempower

I think Roody's post does that, but the post I was responding to referred to people "living in la la land while others do all the work." That, in turn, implies that because some people work harder, others should work harder to produce more in exchange for what the hard workers produce. LCF is working hard for conservation, since pedaling or walking oneself around instead of driving conserves resources, conserves lane/pavement space, etc. This is so hard for many people to understand, because to them you have to be producing something that doesn't already exist to be productive. They don't understand that the work of conservation occurs by working hard not to waste resources by putting effort into activities that use/waste less.

Thanks, Roody, and good example. Henry Ford was also actively thinking about the power of industrial efficiency to produce more leisure time for workers. In his time, the 40 hour week and 5-day work-week were progressive. Today the biggest challenge, imo, is further allowing people to work less while simultaneously staving off inflation that pushes them to work more to avoid running out of money.

If you think about it, even technologies like x-ray photography and other scans replace older techniques for analyzing what's going on inside people without being able to look.

LCF holds so much potential in this regard, since it would make so much sense to spread out work more so that people could travel shorter distances instead of longer ones to get to the people/businesses they need help from. It would be the opposite of spreading out people, who then all drive to a central downtown area to work. Spread out the work, instead, and people don't need to drive far, except those select few who transport goods and components that can't be managed locally.

cooker

What progress towards this do you see in 5 years?

cooker

You are welcome to post something more appropriate in your view.

Robert C

Actually this is one of the problems faced by modern Economics in America. The problem is not inflation, except in housing and other "bid priced" products. Bid priced products show inflation due to the fact that households have more money, and there is a very limited supply of "ideal" housing products.

Outside of bid priced products, inflation is very under control, in fact there is concern of entering a deflationary spiral such as is faced by Japan. However, massive marketing is focused on pursuing anti-inflationary policies when the problem is nearly the opposite. Instead of focusing on inflation, the focus needs to be on the slow growth outside of the financial sector. This calls for almost the opposite remedies as inflation calls for.

It is important to understand what the problem is in order to pursue, and promote appropriate policies. The policy of responding to downturns by increasing public spending is a sound plan; however, it cannot be matched by providing massive tax cuts, and increased spending, in growth periods. It is as if someone misread Keynes to say: down-cycle -- tax-cuts and spend, up-cycle -- tax-cuts and spend.


Back to what we see as the challenge for this century; The challenge is to develop, and implement, a plan that will allow for, and promote, modest, but comfortable, lifestyles in the face of growing unemployment. Encouraging, and promoting, car free living can be part of that process.

As far as five year predictions, we are now two years in. Those of you who posted an expectation of big changes, do you see your change as being realistic in the next three years?

prj71

There is nothing realistic about living car free. It only exists for those who live...1)within a short commute to work 2.)within a short commute for their shopping needs, 3.) In places where the weather is favorable to cyclists year round and 4.) Never travel far distances for vacation or to visit family.

LCF is limited to 5% or less of the population.

Robert C

I would agree, except that I have been car-free since 2006. Yes, I sometimes rent a car or PU.

1) yes, my apartment is close to where I work, that was intentional. However, that choice requires an expectation of stable employment..
2) sort of, a couple of miles away.
3) Have you ever been to SW Kansas? the wind never stops, Saturday it was a steady 28 with gusts to 42 mph. Then there is the snow and hot summers.
4) I fly home (where my wife lives, in Salt Lake). It is cheaper than driving, when I get there I take the metro to a stop less than a mile from my home in Salt Lake. To visit my parents I take a train.

prj71

Then you aren't LCF.

I live in WI...I know about snow and hot summers and 20 below zero. Which is why LCF is a pipe dream. Working in an office, I have no desire to ride a bike to work on a hot humid day and show up at the office sweaty. In winter...no way I'm riding a bike in 20 below zero weather and ruining my bike with all of the salt on the roads.

But you probably take a taxi or rent a car to get to the airport with all of your luggage to do so.

Robert C

At a certain point it comes down to your definition of Car Free.

Sure, you can say that no one in America is car free because they buy food, and the farmer has a PU. Thus, they are using a good that is not car-free, ergo, they are not car free.

At a certain point it comes down to your definition of Car Free.

wphamilton

Yet counter-examples abound, to each of your claims. Perhaps you are projecting your own reasons, without realizing that they don't necessarily apply to the rest of us?

wphamilton

I've noticed a couple of recent threads complaining about electric bikes and other vehicles in bike lanes and paths, so can I claim that my first prediction is fulfilled?

jack pot

>>> 98% of LCF is an eco idealist's dream or an impoverished person's nightmare BUT living car lite is an immediate and attainable eco/$$$/health benefit to a large demographic ... i define car lite as traveling more of your daily distances by bike than by car ... by such measure a car lite life style is now more inviting than ever because of the freedom of the digital workplace and internet accessibility ... within 5 years car liters as i have defined them to be could reach 25% of the under 30 demographic and also markedly increase among the 60+ age group

tandempower

Deconstruction of established economic patterns.

cooker

Please stick to discussing predictions.

I will make a prediction based on your post, that in 5 years, more people will live in circumstances 1 and 2 you mention above, that facilitate car-free living,

cooker

Thanks - good stuff.

tandempower

We can't talk economics like this outside of P&R, but suffice to say that shifting the problem from inflation to deflation ends up producing more inflation. The problem with working less is that you're afraid your savings won't be worth as much when you are older. So people keep working to ensure they have enough money saved despite rising prices. If prices were expected to fall through time, that would give people security that their money will still be there as a safety net. Higher interest rates also fulfill this function, but those cause inflation because of huge reserves of money that will grow as interest rates rise. Prices going down, on the other hand, would be a benefit to people with less money in the bank than it would for people with more, although it would benefit everyone to some degree.

It would be something different to create less work but then spread the work among more people, so everyone could make a little money, if they need to. Then, deflation would create security that saved money won't lose value in the future. It would be economic security with more free/leisure time, but of course there would be less boom-town wheeling and dealing that keep people driving and flying in their spare time instead of biking and walking.

That would be ok, if it worked, but when you say "modest but comfortable," that means to a lot of people that they'll continue to afford driving. I think one of the biggest challenges is for people to see LCF as being at least as good if not better than driving. In one sense, they already do because driving is a chore; but they still see it as a deficiency to be deprived of the choice to drive - and they don't realize, it seems, how the choice to drive is what keeps the roads chock full of congestion in that most people can't resist the 'choice.'

I-Like-To-Bike

Any prediction that is prefaced by "5 years - we'll be complaining here about...[fill in the blank] is guaranteed to be fulfilled.

I-Like-To-Bike

Classic! IOW, nobody else can talk here about the P&R topic that you gratuitously brought up if you disagree with their opinion on the subject; and then you continue droning on and on with more of the same P&R stuff.

cooker

Good point. Really the question is - are there more of those vehicles than there were 2 years ago? Any ideas on that?

I-Like-To-Bike

I've only seen one or two small electric vehicles in the past few years that wasn't located on or near a golf course.

cooker

Thanks. I haven't bike commuted much this year due to a delayed spring with lots of ice or freezing rain through to late March, which means that a lot of other people haven't either, so I don't have a sense yet if there will be a new bloom of e-bikes on my route this year.

Walter S

You generalize too much. I'm carfree and travel mostly on my bicycle but occasional mass transit. My commute is 40 miles round trip. I go on long vacations either riding from my house or taking my bicycle on Amtrak sometimes. Weather gets "cold" in Atlanta but below 20 is rare. Lately I telecommute a lot but I've done the 40 mile commute for years before that started.

wphamilton

Don't give it all away! I had a few more complaint predictions queued up, and now look what you've done ...

Mobile 155

Just stopping by because of news on the EV front. I have yet to see a E bike or trike I am interested in. So far I can still ride farther by pedals. But I did spend some time with a Tesla owner the other day and I have never met anyone as excited about their purchase as this guy was. He commutes with his, get 200+ miles to a charge. Reaches freeway speeds, in under 3 seconds, and charges in 4 hours at 210 and 8 hours at 110. Right now the entry level price is just over where I would feel comfortable but it is coming down. E-bikes are growing in my area but are still a small market share. However I still have three years on my prediction and so far haven't been blown out of the water. And if they increase the gas tax as much as they plan in my state I see a bright future for EVs. Even E-bikes. Looking at Tesla's US Sales Growth in February 2017 - Market Realist

Rollfast

I still want to take a 1956 Plymouth and Mercedes diesel engine and make a hybrid...