$4-a-gallon gas is coming to a pump near you
04-22-07, 09:01 PM
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How high before people freak?
https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=afOlUzd30YOo
What's it gonna take, When will people learn? In Texas there's all kinds of new toll roads. Combine that with high gas prices and this economy is going to stall. Every year more people will have to adjust their lives. A fast food meal cost the same as a gallon of gas.
What's it gonna take, When will people learn? In Texas there's all kinds of new toll roads. Combine that with high gas prices and this economy is going to stall. Every year more people will have to adjust their lives. A fast food meal cost the same as a gallon of gas.
04-22-07, 09:20 PM
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You're not seriously suggesting some people might pay a bit more attention to their driving habits if it gets too expensive?
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Some people are like a Slinky ... not really good for anything, but you still can't help but smile when you shove them down the stairs.
04-22-07, 10:10 PM
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Shouldn't this topic be posted on some other forum? Like Living Car-Free?
04-23-07, 07:58 PM
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$4-a-gallon gas is coming to a pump near you
https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=afOlUzd30YOo
Originally Posted by The Story
Gasoline at $4 Coming to a Pump Near You, Unfazed by Rising Tab
By Joe Carroll
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Whether it's $50 to fill up your Prius or $130 for the Ford Expedition, $4-a-gallon gasoline is coming to a pump near you.
Fuel prices are rising at a pace not seen since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out a third of the U.S. oil refining industry in 2005. Gasoline consumption is climbing twice as fast as last year and will accelerate when summer travel begins late next month.
``What we're surprised by is the increased demand,'' said James Mulva, chief executive officer at ConocoPhillips, whose refineries from California to New Jersey produce 56 million gallons of gas a day, enough to meet 14 percent of the country's needs. ``Even though the price of gasoline is up, the demand is up,'' he said in an April 12 interview in Houston.
Population gains and U.S. economic growth are causing an increase in fuel purchases, according to Orlando, Florida-based AAA, the nation's largest organization for motorists. The U.S. economy will expand at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the first three months, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gasoline use is rising almost 5 percent above the five-year average.
Americans are resigned to higher prices, says David Pursell, a principal with Pickering Energy Partners, a consulting firm in Houston.
``Last year, we had pump prices well over $3 for the summer and gasoline demand was up,'' Pursell said in an interview. ``Would $4 gasoline cause demand contraction? I think it will, but I also thought $3 gasoline would.''
Pump Prices
Gasoline inventories, measured by the days of demand they will cover, are at the lowest level in two decades for this time of year because of refinery fires, power failures and maintenance work oil companies failed to complete in 2006. No new U.S. refinery has been built in three decades, increasing the strain on existing plants.
Pump prices in the U.S. may increase to $4 a gallon from a nationwide average of $2.87 today, especially if hurricanes threaten Gulf of Mexico refineries, says Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, who helps industrial consumers manage energy costs.
``Hurricanes are always the huge wild card,'' said Beutel. ``We're all praying for a year like 2006 rather than 2005.''
The June-to-November Atlantic Ocean hurricane season may produce 17 tropical storms, with nine reaching hurricane force and four becoming major hurricanes whose winds exceed 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour), London-based forecasters at Tropical Storm Risk said. Some of the storms will strike the Gulf Coast this year after a benign 2006, AccuWeather.com predicted.
Inflation Risk
Higher pump prices will make winners of refinery owners such as ConocoPhillips, San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc of The Hague. Shares of Valero and Sunoco Inc., whose only business is refining, are rebounding after a decline at the end of last summer.
The increase in fuel costs threatens to quicken inflation and restrain consumer spending in the U.S. An appreciation to $4 a gallon would add more than $10 for a driver who fills the 12- gallon tank of a Toyota Motor Corp. Prius. The owner of an Expedition, a Ford Motor Co. sport-utility vehicle with a 34- gallon capacity, faces an increase of almost $40.
Many Americans have no choice but to drive more, says Christopher Knittel, an economist who studies fuel consumption at the University of California in Davis.
More Commuters
``We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.
Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.
Rising fuel prices make it less likely that Federal Reserve policy makers, who have cited inflation risks for the past year, will cut interest rates to spur economic growth. Before the hurricane-induced peak in 2005, U.S. gasoline topped out at $1.42 a gallon in March 1981, or $3.21 when adjusted for inflation, according to the Energy Department.
Economies in Europe and Asia are less likely to be hurt by gasoline prices because fuel already is subject to high taxes designed to encourage conservation. A gallon of unleaded costs about 3.25 pounds a gallon ($6.49) in the U.K., and in Japan it's 130.3 yen per liter ($4.16 a gallon).
$4 Barrier
U.S. consumers will get little relief on gasoline prices from Europe this year, unlike 2005, when oil companies shipped more across the Atlantic after the hurricanes. Europe's gasoline inventories in February were 114.2 million barrels, down 11 percent from two years earlier, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. The drop in Europe was almost twice the 5.7 percent decline in U.S. supplies in that time.
``Just as we used to think $3 a gallon was an impenetrable barrier, now it's $4,'' said Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business in College Park and former chief economist for the U.S. International Trade Commission. Gasoline at $3.50 is likely, Morici said, and a conflict with Iran or any event that disrupts crude supplies may push it to $4.
Pump prices rose 33 percent in the past 11 weeks, the fastest rate of gain since a six-week, 34 percent rally to the record $3.069 in September 2005, Energy Department data show.
Bodman's `Worry'
U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in an interview last week said the national average pump price could break the record this summer. While his agency's official forecast is for gasoline to peak next month at about where it is today, hurricanes, refinery closures or crude oil supply cuts may send prices higher, he said.
Higher prices are ``a legitimate worry,'' Bodman said. ``We have trouble spots all over the world'' that could boost crude oil prices. ``We're in a very tight situation.''
Spending on fuel in the U.S. consumes half as much household income as in the early 1980s, which means gasoline would need to reach almost $6 a gallon to have the same effect on the economy as in 1981, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Storage tanks at U.S. refineries, terminals and ports hold enough gasoline to cover almost 22 days of domestic demand, 8.2 percent less than the five-year average and the lowest for this time of year since the 1980s, Energy Department figures show.
Shortages
Valero-owned filling stations in Denver and Colorado Springs, Colorado, ran dry after a Feb. 16 explosion and fire shut the company's McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas. A day earlier, a blaze at an Exxon Mobil Corp. plant in Nanticoke, Ontario, slashed output, resulting in shortages and higher prices across eastern Canada.
The McKee shutdown strained supplies so much that ConocoPhillips postponed maintenance at its Borger, Texas, refinery north of Amarillo to prevent shortages in the region.
``Refineries are becoming more complex,'' Mulva said in the Houston interview. ``What we're finding is it's more difficult keeping reliability up with more sophisticated pieces of equipment that are highly integrated.''
Tesoro Corp. of San Antonio, the second-largest refiner in the western U.S., said first-quarter refinery use dropped because oil companies delayed until this year maintenance that could have been done in 2006. The portion of U.S. refining capacity that was in operation in the first quarter declined to 87.3 percent from 88.9 percent a year earlier, according to Energy Department data.
`Refineries Blow Up'
``Prices will depend entirely on whether we have a couple of refineries blow up,'' said Philip K. Verleger, an economist who runs a consulting firm in Newport Beach, California. ``It's almost impossible we'll get to $4 a gallon if all the refineries run well this summer. But if something happens and there are problems, then anything's possible.''
The average share gain for Valero, Tesoro and six other oil-refining companies is 26 percent this year, outperforming the 4.1 percent gain for Exxon Mobil and a 4.7 percent increase for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
The shares will continue to rally, said Paul Carlson, who helps manage $3 billion at HGK Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.
``Refiners are doing very well these days,'' said Carlson, whose holdings include ConocoPhillips, the second-biggest U.S. refiner. ``There will be lots of demand for any new refining stocks.''
`Back in Favor'
As recently as August, investors were selling oil refiners on concern an economic slowdown would slash fuel demand in the U.S., the world's largest energy market. During seven weeks last August and September, Valero shares fell 29 percent, wiping out $12 billion in market value.
``Refining is very much back in favor,'' said Douglas Ober, who helps oversee $2.3 billion at Baltimore-based Adams Express Co. ``Even with higher prices, we haven't seen any substantial cutback in demand. They're cranking out as much of this stuff as they can, and we're throwing it in our tanks as fast as we can.''
The margin earned from processing crude oil into fuels rose to $24.68 a barrel on April 11, the highest since right after the hurricanes in September 2005. The margin has since retreated to $22.12 a barrel, still about double the five-year average.
``It'll be a fairly tight gasoline market all through the summer,'' said Robert Hinckley, an analyst at Rochdale Securities in New York.
To contact the reporter on this story: Joe Carroll in Chicago at jcarroll8@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 22, 2007 19:04 EDT
By Joe Carroll
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Whether it's $50 to fill up your Prius or $130 for the Ford Expedition, $4-a-gallon gasoline is coming to a pump near you.
Fuel prices are rising at a pace not seen since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out a third of the U.S. oil refining industry in 2005. Gasoline consumption is climbing twice as fast as last year and will accelerate when summer travel begins late next month.
``What we're surprised by is the increased demand,'' said James Mulva, chief executive officer at ConocoPhillips, whose refineries from California to New Jersey produce 56 million gallons of gas a day, enough to meet 14 percent of the country's needs. ``Even though the price of gasoline is up, the demand is up,'' he said in an April 12 interview in Houston.
Population gains and U.S. economic growth are causing an increase in fuel purchases, according to Orlando, Florida-based AAA, the nation's largest organization for motorists. The U.S. economy will expand at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the first three months, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gasoline use is rising almost 5 percent above the five-year average.
Americans are resigned to higher prices, says David Pursell, a principal with Pickering Energy Partners, a consulting firm in Houston.
``Last year, we had pump prices well over $3 for the summer and gasoline demand was up,'' Pursell said in an interview. ``Would $4 gasoline cause demand contraction? I think it will, but I also thought $3 gasoline would.''
Pump Prices
Gasoline inventories, measured by the days of demand they will cover, are at the lowest level in two decades for this time of year because of refinery fires, power failures and maintenance work oil companies failed to complete in 2006. No new U.S. refinery has been built in three decades, increasing the strain on existing plants.
Pump prices in the U.S. may increase to $4 a gallon from a nationwide average of $2.87 today, especially if hurricanes threaten Gulf of Mexico refineries, says Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, who helps industrial consumers manage energy costs.
``Hurricanes are always the huge wild card,'' said Beutel. ``We're all praying for a year like 2006 rather than 2005.''
The June-to-November Atlantic Ocean hurricane season may produce 17 tropical storms, with nine reaching hurricane force and four becoming major hurricanes whose winds exceed 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour), London-based forecasters at Tropical Storm Risk said. Some of the storms will strike the Gulf Coast this year after a benign 2006, AccuWeather.com predicted.
Inflation Risk
Higher pump prices will make winners of refinery owners such as ConocoPhillips, San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc of The Hague. Shares of Valero and Sunoco Inc., whose only business is refining, are rebounding after a decline at the end of last summer.
The increase in fuel costs threatens to quicken inflation and restrain consumer spending in the U.S. An appreciation to $4 a gallon would add more than $10 for a driver who fills the 12- gallon tank of a Toyota Motor Corp. Prius. The owner of an Expedition, a Ford Motor Co. sport-utility vehicle with a 34- gallon capacity, faces an increase of almost $40.
Many Americans have no choice but to drive more, says Christopher Knittel, an economist who studies fuel consumption at the University of California in Davis.
More Commuters
``We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.
Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.
Rising fuel prices make it less likely that Federal Reserve policy makers, who have cited inflation risks for the past year, will cut interest rates to spur economic growth. Before the hurricane-induced peak in 2005, U.S. gasoline topped out at $1.42 a gallon in March 1981, or $3.21 when adjusted for inflation, according to the Energy Department.
Economies in Europe and Asia are less likely to be hurt by gasoline prices because fuel already is subject to high taxes designed to encourage conservation. A gallon of unleaded costs about 3.25 pounds a gallon ($6.49) in the U.K., and in Japan it's 130.3 yen per liter ($4.16 a gallon).
$4 Barrier
U.S. consumers will get little relief on gasoline prices from Europe this year, unlike 2005, when oil companies shipped more across the Atlantic after the hurricanes. Europe's gasoline inventories in February were 114.2 million barrels, down 11 percent from two years earlier, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. The drop in Europe was almost twice the 5.7 percent decline in U.S. supplies in that time.
``Just as we used to think $3 a gallon was an impenetrable barrier, now it's $4,'' said Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business in College Park and former chief economist for the U.S. International Trade Commission. Gasoline at $3.50 is likely, Morici said, and a conflict with Iran or any event that disrupts crude supplies may push it to $4.
Pump prices rose 33 percent in the past 11 weeks, the fastest rate of gain since a six-week, 34 percent rally to the record $3.069 in September 2005, Energy Department data show.
Bodman's `Worry'
U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in an interview last week said the national average pump price could break the record this summer. While his agency's official forecast is for gasoline to peak next month at about where it is today, hurricanes, refinery closures or crude oil supply cuts may send prices higher, he said.
Higher prices are ``a legitimate worry,'' Bodman said. ``We have trouble spots all over the world'' that could boost crude oil prices. ``We're in a very tight situation.''
Spending on fuel in the U.S. consumes half as much household income as in the early 1980s, which means gasoline would need to reach almost $6 a gallon to have the same effect on the economy as in 1981, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Storage tanks at U.S. refineries, terminals and ports hold enough gasoline to cover almost 22 days of domestic demand, 8.2 percent less than the five-year average and the lowest for this time of year since the 1980s, Energy Department figures show.
Shortages
Valero-owned filling stations in Denver and Colorado Springs, Colorado, ran dry after a Feb. 16 explosion and fire shut the company's McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas. A day earlier, a blaze at an Exxon Mobil Corp. plant in Nanticoke, Ontario, slashed output, resulting in shortages and higher prices across eastern Canada.
The McKee shutdown strained supplies so much that ConocoPhillips postponed maintenance at its Borger, Texas, refinery north of Amarillo to prevent shortages in the region.
``Refineries are becoming more complex,'' Mulva said in the Houston interview. ``What we're finding is it's more difficult keeping reliability up with more sophisticated pieces of equipment that are highly integrated.''
Tesoro Corp. of San Antonio, the second-largest refiner in the western U.S., said first-quarter refinery use dropped because oil companies delayed until this year maintenance that could have been done in 2006. The portion of U.S. refining capacity that was in operation in the first quarter declined to 87.3 percent from 88.9 percent a year earlier, according to Energy Department data.
`Refineries Blow Up'
``Prices will depend entirely on whether we have a couple of refineries blow up,'' said Philip K. Verleger, an economist who runs a consulting firm in Newport Beach, California. ``It's almost impossible we'll get to $4 a gallon if all the refineries run well this summer. But if something happens and there are problems, then anything's possible.''
The average share gain for Valero, Tesoro and six other oil-refining companies is 26 percent this year, outperforming the 4.1 percent gain for Exxon Mobil and a 4.7 percent increase for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
The shares will continue to rally, said Paul Carlson, who helps manage $3 billion at HGK Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.
``Refiners are doing very well these days,'' said Carlson, whose holdings include ConocoPhillips, the second-biggest U.S. refiner. ``There will be lots of demand for any new refining stocks.''
`Back in Favor'
As recently as August, investors were selling oil refiners on concern an economic slowdown would slash fuel demand in the U.S., the world's largest energy market. During seven weeks last August and September, Valero shares fell 29 percent, wiping out $12 billion in market value.
``Refining is very much back in favor,'' said Douglas Ober, who helps oversee $2.3 billion at Baltimore-based Adams Express Co. ``Even with higher prices, we haven't seen any substantial cutback in demand. They're cranking out as much of this stuff as they can, and we're throwing it in our tanks as fast as we can.''
The margin earned from processing crude oil into fuels rose to $24.68 a barrel on April 11, the highest since right after the hurricanes in September 2005. The margin has since retreated to $22.12 a barrel, still about double the five-year average.
``It'll be a fairly tight gasoline market all through the summer,'' said Robert Hinckley, an analyst at Rochdale Securities in New York.
To contact the reporter on this story: Joe Carroll in Chicago at jcarroll8@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 22, 2007 19:04 EDT
04-23-07, 08:13 PM
#5
Banned
4 dollar gas is just another 50 cents away here in my area, and we won't need a conflict to get it, just another oil refinery fire will do.
04-23-07, 09:00 PM
#6
In the right lane
I don't think this article says a whole lot that you can't figure out by the process of simple arithmetic. If you look at a Chinese economy growing at a rate of about 10% annually. Look at video of every major Asian city clogged with traffic. Look at the sheer size of some of the vehicles produced by GM, Ford and Daimler Chrysler.
If I were forced right now to endure a long commute by car, I'd be thinking "Where's all this going? Where will I be sitting in 10 years?"
That train of thought would lead me to this logical conclusion: I need to sell my suv, buy a Trek and move closer to work.
If I were forced right now to endure a long commute by car, I'd be thinking "Where's all this going? Where will I be sitting in 10 years?"
That train of thought would lead me to this logical conclusion: I need to sell my suv, buy a Trek and move closer to work.
04-23-07, 09:01 PM
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That's still far too cheap, this is from a Canadian perspective, but Jim Kenzie a writer for the Toronto Star, says it best.
If you want to read the whole article, which also talks about fuel efficiency, you can read it here
Originally Posted by Jim Kenzie
Despite all the whining, gasoline is as cheap now as it has ever been, on an inflation-adjusted basis. It is the cheapest fluid you can buy at a gasoline station. Water is three bucks a litre, fer cryin' out loud.
As long as gasoline is free, we're going to keep on driving all by ourselves to work in a 2,000 kg truck, or picking up little Brittney at Havergal in a 500-horse SUV, engine idling while you wait, air-con set at full cryogenic.
As long as gasoline is free, we're going to keep on driving all by ourselves to work in a 2,000 kg truck, or picking up little Brittney at Havergal in a 500-horse SUV, engine idling while you wait, air-con set at full cryogenic.
04-23-07, 09:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Wogsterca
That's still far too cheap, this is from a Canadian perspective, but Jim Kenzie a writer for the Toronto Star, says it best.
If you want to read the whole article, which also talks about fuel efficiency, you can read it here
If you want to read the whole article, which also talks about fuel efficiency, you can read it here
04-23-07, 10:20 PM
#9
Sophomoric Member
Originally Posted by bloomberg.com article
Many Americans have no choice but to drive more, says Christopher Knittel, an economist who studies fuel consumption at the University of California in Davis.
"We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.
Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.
"We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.
Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.
Originally Posted by bloomberg.com article
The increase in fuel costs threatens to quicken inflation and restrain consumer spending in the U.S.
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04-23-07, 10:50 PM
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Having this story in mind, it really depresses me with the job I am doing tonight. I can't get into too much detail about it, but let's just say I am working on a prototype for GM. Parts to a "new release" of their most famous gas guzzler mentioned here on BF. This one will be out in the next couple of years. Hopefully they'll be using a different engine than on their last few implementations of *this* vehicle.
/me hangs his head in shame
/me hangs his head in shame
04-23-07, 11:03 PM
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Originally Posted by pj7
Having this story in mind, it really depresses me with the job I am doing tonight. I can't get into too much detail about it, but let's just say I am working on a prototype for GM. Parts to a "new release" of their most famous gas guzzler mentioned here on BF. This one will be out in the next couple of years. Hopefully they'll be using a different engine than on their last few implementations of *this* vehicle.
/me hangs his head in shame
/me hangs his head in shame
04-23-07, 11:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Platy
Good heavens, we're making faster progress than I thought. Agents of the carfree movement have now infiltrated into the very heart of the beast. Good work, agent pj7!
My personaly life choices in transpotation go against the career that puts bread and butter on my families kitchen table.
And to top it all, I have gotten two other people I work with to ride their bikes to work. Maybe they only do it once in a blue moon when the weather is warm, but still! All that Detroit steel outside and three little bicycles in the building every once in a while is a nice feeling. I'm still the oddball though.
04-24-07, 12:27 AM
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Originally Posted by gerv
If I were forced right now to endure a long commute by car, I'd be thinking "Where's all this going? Where will I be sitting in 10 years?"
That train of thought would lead me to this logical conclusion: I need to sell my suv, buy a Trek and move closer to work.
That train of thought would lead me to this logical conclusion: I need to sell my suv, buy a Trek and move closer to work.
04-24-07, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Roody
People who believe they have no choice but to drive more are idiots and they deserve $4 gas. Or $40 for that matter.
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fun facts: Psychopaths have trouble understanding abstract concepts.
"Incompetent individuals, compared with their more competent peers, will dramatically overestimate their ability and performance relative to objective criteria."
fun facts: Psychopaths have trouble understanding abstract concepts.
"Incompetent individuals, compared with their more competent peers, will dramatically overestimate their ability and performance relative to objective criteria."
04-24-07, 01:44 PM
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I was talking with an ex avid bike commuter last weekend. He told me he keeps accurate track of how much he spends on gasoline for his Hybrid by making all gasoline purchases on a dedicated credit card. His strategy is to fill up when he goes past the lowest priced station along his regular routes. He spent $2,700.00 last year. He bought the hybrid car so he could use the HOV lanes on the way to work. His commute is about 10 miles one way. I don't know about his other driving habits. He told me he got on his bike for the first time in a year or so and ended up in pain. So, not only is he losing money he's lost some of his health since he gave up biking to work. I don't think the price of gas going from 3 to 4 dollars per gallon will get him back on the bike. It would only be what? an extra $1000.00 or so? It seems to me that the car free advantage isn't the price of gas. For me gas could be free and it wouldn't induce me to go buy a car.
04-24-07, 01:59 PM
#17
Sophomoric Member
Originally Posted by TimJ
That's a really dumb statement. Driving a car is the only realistic choice for a lot of people and moving, or changing jobs, or whatever else can get someone out of their car isn't always a realistic choice. We live in a nation designed around the automobile, it's not surprising a car is essential to most people.
Many car trips are under 3 miles and don't involve carrying anything heavier than a Big Gulp. These trips could easily be made on bike or on foot. Also, what makes a choice "realistic" often depends on the imagination and intelligence of the individual. Some people have little of either, so they automatically hop in their cars without even thinking about it. Finally, the nation has been designed pretty poorly if people actually do find it hard to travel in more than one mode.
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04-24-07, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Roody
(Your first sentence was uncalled for, but I'll respond with more courtesy than you offered me.)
Many car trips are under 3 miles and don't involve carrying anything heavier than a Big Gulp. These trips could easily be made on bike or on foot. Also, what makes a choice "realistic" often depends on the imagination and intelligence of the individual. Some people have little of either, so they automatically hop in their cars without even thinking about it. Finally, the nation has been designed pretty poorly if people actually do find it hard to travel in more than one mode.
Many car trips are under 3 miles and don't involve carrying anything heavier than a Big Gulp. These trips could easily be made on bike or on foot. Also, what makes a choice "realistic" often depends on the imagination and intelligence of the individual. Some people have little of either, so they automatically hop in their cars without even thinking about it. Finally, the nation has been designed pretty poorly if people actually do find it hard to travel in more than one mode.
Originally Posted by Roody
People who believe they have no choice but to drive more are idiots and they deserve $4 gas. Or $40 for that matter.
Originally Posted by Bloomberg
Americans have no choice but to drive more, says Christopher Knittel, an economist who studies fuel consumption at the University of California in Davis.
"We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.
Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.
"We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.
Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.
Originally Posted by Roody
People who believe they have no choice but to drive more are idiots and they deserve $4 gas. Or $40 for that matter.
And there's nothing discourteous happening,
Originally Posted by Roody
People who believe they have no choice but to drive more are idiots and they deserve $4 gas. Or $40 for that matter.
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fun facts: Psychopaths have trouble understanding abstract concepts.
"Incompetent individuals, compared with their more competent peers, will dramatically overestimate their ability and performance relative to objective criteria."
fun facts: Psychopaths have trouble understanding abstract concepts.
"Incompetent individuals, compared with their more competent peers, will dramatically overestimate their ability and performance relative to objective criteria."
04-24-07, 02:40 PM
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$4.00/gal is not too far fetched. Will most likely be a reality. $5.00/gal for premium may also happen although it may settle around $4.50. I remember the early 70's when gas hit $1.00 plus per gallon. "My God", people thought. "That's a four fold increase". Same ratio now, just adjusted for inflation or whatever. Ya pays your money and ya takes your choice. PG.
04-24-07, 02:56 PM
#20
Banned
Originally Posted by PolishGuy
$4.00/gal is not too far fetched. Will most likely be a reality. $5.00/gal for premium may also happen although it may settle around $4.50. I remember the early 70's when gas hit $1.00 plus per gallon. "My God", people thought. "That's a four fold increase". Same ratio now, just adjusted for inflation or whatever. Ya pays your money and ya takes your choice. PG.
I don't remember gas hitting the dollar mark in my area until 1980, but during the first embargo, I do remember one entrepreneurial individual who claimed he would install a personal 100 gallon gas tank at one's house and supply it with unlimited amount of gasoline for 88 cents a gallon, at the time, he had no takes on the offer.
04-24-07, 03:12 PM
#21
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Originally Posted by TimJ
This country was built around car travel and it's simply impossible for most people to live close enough to their job, or their school, or whatever, to make owning a car less than a necessity. It's dumb to pretend otherwise.
The proliferation of the automobile and the construction of pathways leading out of the cities - the Interstate Highway system (funded under the National Interstate and Defense Highways Act of 1956) - were principally responsible for the creation of suburbia, a zone of population fostered by civil defense and the concept of dispersion under the guise of Manifest Destiny. Dispersion of population and industry was the only real defense against the destruction wrought by a nuclear attack, whose primary targets were population centers where the maximal amount of damage could be inflicted by the weapon.
Originally Posted by PolishGuy
$4.00/gal is not too far fetched. Will most likely be a reality. $5.00/gal for premium may also happen although it may settle around $4.50. I remember the early 70's when gas hit $1.00 plus per gallon. "My God", people thought. "That's a four fold increase". Same ratio now, just adjusted for inflation or whatever. Ya pays your money and ya takes your choice. PG.
04-24-07, 03:13 PM
#22
Banned
If anyone has been following the oil issue from the supply side as of late I think you will find that 2007 will see anywhere from 0 to about +1 million bpd in net change of production worldwide. Come June when the US summer driving season kicks into gear if the Saudi's and OPEC are unable to ramp up production we can expect sizable price jumps, so far they say they can yet their production continues to fall anyway. If they cant ramp up production things are going to start getting ugly.........their lies will have been revealed at that point. Demand destruction from the 3rd world being unable to cope with the higher prices will blunt some of it, but China and India continue to keep on keeping on just like the US, and I dont expect that to change anytime soon. I think in the near future we will be looking at a shortfall on supply that wont be going away, once that occurs I'd expect gas to increase in price by multiples not just a few cents here and there.
04-24-07, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by TimJ
This country was built around car travel and it's simply impossible for most people to live close enough to their job, or their school, or whatever, to make owning a car less than a necessity. It's dumb to pretend otherwise.
Personally, I think what will happen, is that people will return to cities, as it becomes too expensive to drive, because gas prices, will continue to rise, if peak oil has occured, or occures, that price rise trend, could increase very quickly.
04-24-07, 03:45 PM
#24
Banned
^^^ there's an article in one of the local rags here, street cars are already looking to make a comeback locally, in some places you can still see where the old tracks used to be, they havent been gone that long
personally I dont think sprawl has a future or is an option really, I dont think the typical motoring lifestyle has much of a future either
there is a complete and 100% disconnect when people buy houses and make plans, they dont even bother to consider the future with respect to energy among other things, that may end up being a rather tragic problem for some people, I just wish it wasnt gonna drag everyone down with it too
personally I dont think sprawl has a future or is an option really, I dont think the typical motoring lifestyle has much of a future either
there is a complete and 100% disconnect when people buy houses and make plans, they dont even bother to consider the future with respect to energy among other things, that may end up being a rather tragic problem for some people, I just wish it wasnt gonna drag everyone down with it too
04-24-07, 03:54 PM
#25
Sophomoric Member
Originally Posted by TimJ
And there's nothing discourteous happening, is a dumb statement. This country was built around car travel and it's simply impossible for most people to live close enough to their job, or their school, or whatever, to make owning a car less than a necessity. It's dumb to pretend otherwise.
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