kimconyc

Um sorry, but the Saturday is just another mountain stage. People are still relatively fresh +/- some banged-up bodies. It's a stage where if Contador is not bluffing about his knee, he will take back 40s+.

Plus, it's sort of hard to attack on Plateau de Beille because the last 2km have a lot of flat spots and it would be stupid and really risky to attack from 5km to go on such an early mountain stage unless one really has some extra "juice" in him.

The queen stage is Alpe d'Huez.

reef58

Saturday is a big deal, but really they all are. Big time gaps Saturday. Contador is not bluffing. That would be pretty absurd at this point.

R

kimconyc

Still think he is bluffing. Vegas, sponsors, drama, $$$.

kimconyc

Anyway, people are still fresh. Nobody will attack significantly. Everyone uses their SRMs nowadays.

You think Cunego is strong? Watch him go backwards on Alpe d'Huez.

wxduff

https://www.cyclingnews.com/editions/...r-march-5-2005

Caretaker

Your Cyclingnews link from March 2005 is trumped by my Cyclingnews link from October 2005.


https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/roch...es-for-ireland

Shadco 

Please forgive me I meant to say the ITT stage 20

Farby

Basso was looking pretty good yesterday. AS was not. Dopador was cooked at the end. Anything can happen still but it is definitely keeping it exciting.

Mithrandir

14 seconds. Regardless, Contador was already almost 2 minutes down. Now is not the time for him to cede even more time. Especially at the very end of a stage. If he could have matched the Schlecks' attack, he would have. He tried twice, the gave up.

I'm not saying he's toast; anything can happen. But that is not good news for AC.

USAZorro

I could buy that stage 12 might not have suited Contador to attack, but the fact that he lost time is a concern.

FriendlyFred

I don't get why people keep insisting that it's no problem for AC to make up 1:50+ on the Schlecks. The Schlecks are equal to AC climbing, the only place he can make up time on them is going to be the final TT. In fact, the Schlecks seem stronger than AC climbing during this tour. I don't see AC getting on the podium, much less winning this one.

Dolomiti

The only rider who attacked Contador was Frank Schleck, who gained 33 seconds on him. They all rode tempo until the last portion of the climb - the time gaps were never going to be big in that case.
Attacking on a 16km climb that averages 8%, after 5 other categorized climbs, would be a stupid idea? The early mountain stages are usually the most decisive on GC. Have fun learning about past Tours, in particular past Plateau de Beille stages, and you might rethink your reasoning

Keith99

Did anyone see when the gap (other than to Frank) opened? I'm thinking it might show somethign and the telecast I caught omitted that entirely.

The underlying question is why did AC not respond. I've played sports. I've played (pretty badly) injured. Best case for AC was that the knee is still tender and he was unwilling to put major stress on it. Especially when it was a situation where limited time was on offer.

I did not see an explosive responce by AC on the entire stage. That fits for a tender or worse knee. If that is the case the question is what are the chances of it getting better. And that is something he will keep from everyone save his teammates.

Keith99

When did you start following the Tour? Historically there are usually swings of 1:40 or more on a single stage. And I mean between contenders. It is only the last 2-3 years where they have played the marking game and going for seconds at the end of the final climb. Go back to Hinault and Lemond and it was 2 minutes to one and 2 minutes to the other the next day. Truely great riders have not conceded down 10 minutes and lady luck has helped them (though not in ways they would have wanted).

Kind of Blued

Agreed on the poor TV coverage, and wanting to see what happened. It wasn't a "Contador's being dropped" moment, it was a "WHERE THE HELL IS CONTADOR" moment, well after the fact.

daveF

He's not referring to Hinault or Lemond. He's referring to the current. So the past 2-3 years is a much more reliable trend. Doesn't matter what Merkx did, matters what has occurred in the past & present with the current contenders. I don't see Alberto putting 1:40 into a healthy Andy or Frank. Or either of the brothers putting 1:40 into Alberto if he was healthy (which he is not). Yeah, things can happen such as not eating properly & one of them bonking like Andy did in the 2008 TDF & Alberto in the 2009 Paris Nice. They probably won't be making that mistake this Tour.

GrayJay

I was so dissapointed with the editing of the 2-hr coverage version of the final climb I re-watched the final climb on the longer evening versus coverage, it was much better. THere were several attacks anc counterattacks from both the Schlecks and from Contador before Frank actually made the one that stuck. Covering the 1-2 punch attackes from both the schlecks probably greatly contributed to him popping at the end.

I was impressed to see Evans leading the pack the last couple of Km chasing Frank, shows he was not in danger of getting dropped and had the reserves in the tank to actually race.

wxduff

Alright, you win . At least you backed yourself up.

Keith99

Using 2 or 3 sample points for a trend is foolish. The 68 TDF was one of (if not the) closest TDFs in history. In fact Yellow changed hands on the final day and no one was even reasonably sure of a Podium starting the day.

69 woild be the largest winning Margin since 1952 and is still the largest winning margin since 1952. And it involved a similar situation. Previously there had been a 5 time TDF winner who was vary calculating and preserved his leads. That changed to an attacking rider who blew things apart.

Many of us are hoping AC finally decide to attack in the same manner.

kimconyc

Sure seemed decisive there. (That was sarcasm).

The last three people to win on the Plateau de Beille were major dopers, and one is still riding in the TdF. That particular mountain meant nothing to their ability to attack and win.

reef58

It was decisive in the fact we learned there is no one heads above the others. Andy seems to be the strongest, but it is slight. Very slight. We will have a good race with many possible winners unlike in the past.

R