furiousferret

So ever since I've taken up cycling I've asked myself this question. When in the U.S. does road cycling become mainstream if people can't afford to drive?

I've asked myself this question many times. With estimates of the worlds oil reserves depleted in only 26 years, something is going to have to give. Either a major alternative resource comes up or we use our legs. Cycling is the best alternative, but to be honest, I think most of America is too lazy to bike even if they had to.

Still, I think when gas gets to over 6$ a gallon cyclists will be alot more common, and I dont think that number is very far off (2010?)

It would solve our obesity problem, I burn 1000 calories in 20 miles. So going off those numbers someone who is 100 lbs overweight has 7000 miles of fat stores for cycling.

cyclezealot

gas is over 5 dollars a gallon in Europe. Has not effected the car addiction too much. Except alternatives to the car is more common. and of course biking is mainstream.can not detect any anti cycling attitudes from my experience.so far.
but, car is still king. Europe has its versions of NASCAR i understand. Most have two cars. cost of gas seems irrelevant in the US. Except, I know some people with low paying jobs far away from work are facing bankruptacy right now. I'd say for US life style, it would take probably $7 a gallon to really effect life style changes, if that possible. Considering how far people live from work.
Bet bike commuting will become more likely at close to 5 dollars a gallon. very much over $5 a gallon, the US will be in a world of hurt.

531Aussie

we're currently paying up to the equivalent of $3.85 US per US gallon

celticfrost

I think you're dead on when you say, "...I think most of America is too lazy to bike even if they had to.". There will be an alternative source of energy (*shudders at the Bush plan for nuclear*) before Americans take up cycling as a means of transportation. And we're also too lazy, preoccupied and stressed to solve our obesity problems w/ exercise. If they even care that they're obese, they'll just get liposuction, plastic surgery, medical prescription or blame mommy and daddy.

Patriot

I have noticed more people in my area riding bikes to and from work in the last year, but it hasn't quite taken off yet. Slowly but surely. You'll know it's really taking hold when health insurance premiums come under control. You'll start hearing more stories on the news of people going to the hospital with broken bones from cycling injuries, rather than all the problems related to obesity.

PedalMasher

Car culture is too ingrained here. I think the more expensive gas gets, the less people spend on other things to maintain gas consumption. From econ class, I remember the best example of inelastic demand is gasoline, but to what point I don't know. I agree with the above poster. It would need to get above $5-$6 a gallon to cause the middle class to stop spending money on entertainment and other other luxuries. If it went higher I think you would really start to see retail get hurt.

I fill my car up maybe once a month so I really don't give a hoot! Bring it on, Iran!! ha

cs1

It will never happen. Here in the midwest, Ohio in my case, average commute is getting to be 20 miles of interstate. It takes 4 times as long to bike as to drive. Coupled with the terrible weather that is just too much. I wear a suit to work, there are no showers and I drive 30 miles one way. I love to ride my bikes and have several rides. There is no practical way to commute though.

I am not saying it's a bad idea, it's not. For most of America it's just not practical.

Don't believe that crap about using up all the oil in 20 years either. There is more oil in the ground than we can use. Instability and geopolitics are whats causing the problems. Add to the fact that oil is traded openly as a commodity and you have a recipe for disaster. If oil were only allowed to be bought and sold by actual end users, the price would be in the $30 - $40/barrel range. Good luck on your quest.


Tim

operator

Yep, it will never happen.

pdxtex

riding a bike versus driving your car is only a choice that urban dwellers will have the luxury or making. for rural america, the car is still going to be the only way to get to work. not sure what the urban versus rural population stat is, but i think the bicycle will only be a viable alternative to the car or public trans for the those who are within five miles of their workplace. even at five bucks a gallon, the average joe will probably suck it up and pay for the gas. i think high gas prices will have more of an effect on better public transit at a city/regional level. bike ridership will increase but like i said, probably for folks that can get to their work within a 20 minute physical commute. just my guess.

patentcad

$29 per gallon. At least.

Cycling will NEVER go mainstream in the US. But we can always dream.

sentinel4675

I have to agree there are too many who have to commute too far for bikes to become heavily used. I am a police officer and have a take home car that I have to ride to and from work since I am required to respond to calls and patrol. There are times I wish I could ride a bike to work, but can't.

fmw

Won't happen. When the oil companies see people begin to abadon autos, they will lower the prices.

DieselDan

fmw is right. Anyone remember why gas prices went down back in October? Consumption went down due to high prices, causing a glut of gasoline sitting in the tanks. So, prices went down. Simple supply and demand, even if a shortage is precieved.

Then there is ethonal. Brazil is now 100% ethonal powered, and all domestically produced from sugar cane. The potentional in the USA is there, but ethonal is the more expensive corn based, but the USA has more then enough farmland to produce ethonal and still maintain the current food production. Diesel engines can run on vegtable oil.

Most race cars don't run on a strctly oil based fuel. Many race cars use methonal, ethonal, or nitromethane, including ChampCar, IRL, Formula 1, World of Outlaws, and most sprint car series.

64deville

I can tell you this, last year when prices hit $3.15+ in Iowa no one was beating down our door to get outfitted with commuting stuff. So I would say $10/ gallon.

dta95b7r

As long as gas is available people will buy it regardless of price they will just drive for the necessities and sit home playing video games. When gas becomes too expensive you think they would make the shoulder for bikes and the far right as a break down lane on interstates cause that would make my commuting so much faster.

NoRacer

+1

barba

Our towns and cities are poorly designed for anything besides car traffic. Our social engineering and planning is based around cheap petroleum, and it will be very difficult to change that anytime soon. Shopping, residential and business districts are often separated by long distances or high volume roads that are distinctly bike unfriendly.

The price point at which people will ride more bicycles as utility vehicles is probably more likely the point at which gas prices begin to influence urban planning and design.

chrisvu05

being a grad student, the current gas prices are already making me consider commuting to school. I currently have a 5 liter V8 engine in my car and it just sucks the gas, not to mention that it is a 22 gallon tank. I fill up once a week so @ $3 /gallon I'm going to be spending $66 /week. This is unacceptable. As soon as this spring semester ends, I'll be commuting. 15 miles to campus with 1700 ft of climbing...atleast i'll be excellent shape by the end of the summer

msheron

First to answer your ?....................gas will never be too high for this country to ever eliminate vehicles. People no longer live just a few miles from work anymore and cars are a necessity for getting to and from.

The biggest ? should be when will the US and all car makers go to hydrogen powered vehicles to show the oil countrys like the middle east that we no longer depend on them!

I sometimes travel over 1200 miles a week. A bike just won't do. Plus I carry all my equipment in my supplied Suburban. I also have a lab response vehicle that is 26' long 12.5' high and 8.5' wide with a V-10 engine to pull the mountain roads. All necessary for dismantling meth labs and to carry so much equipment that NASA would be envious.

I think however, if most folks that travel about two to three miles or so to their local coffee house of restaurant would get on their bike this would significantly cut into the oil barrons profits!

Just my 2 cents!

Az B

I just hope that higher prices will keep people from driving so much so there will be less traffic.

Az

GuitarWizard

My closest commute in the last 11 years has been 35 miles each way.....on highways. If I did it on a bike, it would be well over 50 miles each way. For me, it's not practical to commute by bike. If I lived close to a job, then I'd commute by bike, but there's nothing around here that pays much.

I did commute on my motorcycle last year though....saved a LOT of money in gas .

Grasschopper

Don't be too upset there we are too far off. Regular unleaded (87 octane) is $2.79gal here this morning and supreme (92-93 octane) is like $3.19/gal.

I was watching the local news this morning and they had an interview with a woman who was complaining how she could barely afford to drive her kids to school....then they panned out and showed her $50k Ford Excursion that gets like 10 MPG. 3 things came to mind #1 was shut up you stupid *****. #2 was hmm pretty sure there are school buses top get those kids to school. #3 was hey don't they make SUVs or maybe CARs that get better than 10 MPG these days?

Last year was the first full year that I commuted and ran errands by bicycle significantly for the first time. By my figure just in gas and maint on my car I saved $500 then add to that the health benefits of riding. It isn't a HUGE number but it is enough to buy a bike and the health benefits outweigh the money IMO. All that and I still drove more miles than I biked....hoping to do better this year.

jfmckenna

No people will just use there cars to commute to work but not travell as much so the kids will park themselves in front ov the TV or Playstation and eat chips and soda and continue to grow to monstrous proportions.

Retro Grouch 

There are a lot of parts to that question.

The short answer is that I have already seen a few more people using a bicycle for daily transportation. These are people that I would call middle class Americans as opposed to some under class, but they are still very few. I think that number will slowly grow as gas prices continue to increase.

Gasoline is a relatively inelastic commodity. Over the short run (month-to-month) there aren't very many things that most people can do to decrease their consumption more than a few percentage points.

Intermediate term solutions might involve buying more fuel efficient cars and paying more attention to where one lives vs. where they work. I think that we're beginning to see some of that happening now just as it did in the years following the arab oil embargo.

Long term solutions might include major redesign of our urban areas. Not just more public transit but things like relocation of work and shopping areas closer to where people live and the inclusion of routes to work and school that people percieve as being practical for non-mechanized transportation. These kinds of changes can take decades but that doesn't mean they can't or won't happen. It's taken 50 or 60 years to develop a society centered pretty much completely around automobiles and it'll probably take about that long to evolve into whatever comes next. Bicycles may be a big part of what is coming next, but I suspect bicycle use will be limited to a supplemental role to something entirely new and innovative.

As gasoline prices are increasing, another dirty little secret is that real wages for workers, including white collar workers who identify with management, are on the decline. Since WWII we've grown to expect wages to continue to rise. We've grown to want bigger houses, more land and more spread out urban areas. As the median wage continues to fall, people will become financially unable to maintain that lifestyle. As that happens there will be more pressure to revert to more compact urban planning models.

Corsaire

What about the so called COOL factor? (although most will deny it)

As long as cycling it's not seen as COOL, it will never catch on. Specially by status concious people (most people in the US) who would rather be caught dead than riding a bicycle to work, etc.

Corsaire