@ Botto: I am planning to hoard tires & tubes.

BTW, the last few posts about sudden aluminum frame failures are not encouraging ....

@ cyclezealot My riding style is sober, on-road, measured.

I would not buy used if I were you. You seem to be demanding a bike that will last at least 20 years of heavy use (sounds like you are going to rely on it and not a car based on your Mad Max/Road Warrior future view). No bike made can be 100% counted on to do that. A used bike is already going to have miles on it and that would only add to the risk of issue. Work an extra few months and put away that money in a 'bike fund' with modest interest. Use this to pay for consumables (tires, chains, etc), stuff that might come up (rims, pedals, etc) and a new bike at some point later in your life.

I'm strong, but by no means am I a competative sprinter, at least I don't think I am. Not counting Huffys and other junk I broke as a kid, I've broken at least 8 frames that I can recall..most of them were steel BMX frames that took serious pounding. I broke two steel road frames last year, but like I said, they were vintage frames that could have alreadly had 10,000+ hard miles for all I know. Both of them were set up as fixed gears and used on the road.

@indygreg thanks, good points. You may be onto something there. Given that I shall buy a touring/hybrid style bike that uses tires halfway between racing and mountain bike, could you recommend a tire format/size (and even brand?) I should aim at? Likewise, are chains a generic item? (I've been away from cycling for such a long time...)

@mihlbach it baffles me how people can destroy frames. I rode for years and had no problems with my Columbus and Reynolds tubing. BUT I did not: jump on/off sidewalks, go offroad, stand up and sprint with full power more than a very few times.

Sounds like you want a cyclocross frame...?

try fetishcycles for cheap new frames.

Riding on or off curbs doesn't have anything to do with it...frames can handle vertical forces very well and such impacts are only occasional anyway and can be done very smoothly. More significantly, frames flex laterally when you pedal (thousands of time per ride) and that slowly fatiques them, especially if you are inducing a lot of flex by really hammering. If you rarely stand and sprint or rarely climb out of the saddle (which I do everyday) I suppose you would get a lot more miles out of any frame regardless of material.

I have over 20,000 miles on a Cannondale CAAD5 frame without problems. It does ride on the harsh side, though, but not nearly as harsh as my Tesch, an oversize steel frame. I also have a Cannondale touring bike with a steel fork, very comfortable, and good with a load.
I have broken 3 steel frames and had rust problems with another, but last year I bought a steel Gunnar and love the way it rides.
I'm over 200 pounds, and used to be able to sprint pretty well, this may have something to do with my destruction of parts, wheels, frames, etc., but I'm always surprised by people saying they want a frame to last "the rest of their lives". I'm not rich, but part of the fun of cycling is trying different bikes.
Have you looked at Soma? They are cheap here, and sometimes they have specials on-line. Friends tell me they ride great.

Let's just say I have very little confidence in my ability to afford fancy new bikes as I get older, and even less confidence that those fancy new bikes will be available.

If you need a primer:
https://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

You are a crazy old man
EDIT: I understand that the global energy situation sucks, but civilization as we know it won't just collapse in 30 years when the oil runs out, if it even does run out. Even though that website says that they "aren't a doomsday cult" it is. There are pages of guides on "how to survive the peak oil crash". Completely ridiculous.

Where the heck do you live that you can't get a steel frame? Antiartica? FedEx, DHL seem to go almost anywhere.

paranoid is more appropriate.

If you believe in this stuff, I cannot see how you would get a road bike. Honestly. I am not going to debate your views - just help you do something about it if you would like. To each their own really.

Get a MTB not a road bike. End of civilization/no gas/etc would mean streets are not likely to be maintained. Also, if all hell brakes loose you can count on a lot of tire popping debris on the roads. Tires would be your #1 concern by far.

I would think firearms and food would be far more important than a bike, but it would depend on what you think the future is going to look like and what your goals are. If there are no cars, your bike is going to be very valuable, more so than your life . . . so you better learn to ride and shoot.

Better get a good bike lock too..because if thats the only source of transportation in a post-apocalypitic armageddon sort of world, you can count on your nice bike getting stolen.

i'm sure we'll find new and innovative ways of sucking the planet dry for years to come.

I agree. MTBs are far more Armageddon-ready. Go with one of those.

I will note that there are a good number of aluminum aircraft constructed since the fourties that are still flying safely today with an astonishingly low rate of undiscovered failure. The materials science dictates that certain materials (Aluminum being one of them) will tend to accumulate stresses over time that will lead to eventual failure... wheras other materials (Steel and Titanium being two of them) have a threshold value where stresses will not accumulate. Go over the threshold and they'll still develop stress-cracks and fail, of course.

So, clearly a properly engineered and maintained aluminum structure can last decades and be able to be removed from service before it is dangerous... largely by providing sufficent reserve structural strength that you get visible cracks before structural failure. The same goes for steel structures... except you just need to make sure that any stresses on the material stay below the metal fatigure point.

Of course, with all of the "innovation" in the bike industry, I'm sure that there are plenty of improperly engineered bike structures. Without giving some engineers a bunch of time to crunch on things and without proper control over production, any bike can develop stress cracks and fail.

I do not worry about peak oil. I worry about tax subsidies on ethanol and hydrogen and biodiesel and fusion power that are trying to "prepare us" for when there's no oil left. Remember, in Europe, they had Peak Trees before they switched to coal and it worked out fine for them...

Just for perspective, in the US, $500 in 1980 is around $1400 in 2007. I don't know if the cost of living factors are similar in Australia, but my guess would be yes. If you were happy with the "several hundred dollars" range in '80, you should be looking in the $1,000 - $1500 range now.

You can get an awfully nice bicycle for $1,000 - $1,500, at least in the US. Since you live there, I defer to your judgment on what's available in Perth. But I guess I have a hard time believing that there isn't a selection of bikes in this range in Perth. Granted, I've only been there once, and did not shop for bicycles, but it seemed to me to be a pretty typical city of that size and there were a lot of recreational oriented people living there and throughout WA.

Consider a "cyclocross" or "hybrid" bike. The can accept on relatively narrow tires (700X28c) for "road" use (I use 28's on my real road bike all the time) and wider (35c range) for more comfort, heavier loads, or poor roads or trails. Depending on your price point, they compare very favorably in performance to full on racing road bikes, but are made for rougher use and/or more comfort. Hybrids are similar in concept - a cross between a mountain bike and a road bike. Generally cyclocross bikes have road-style handlebars, and are more performance oriented, hybrids have flat bars and are more comfort oriented. Either would be excellent for commuting, touring and straight ahead road riding for sport.

I have a couple of friends (in totally different parts of the US) who are long term, very dedicated recreational riders - several thousand miles per year for many years. Both have top of the line road bikes. Both also bought "medium to high end" Cyclocross bikes within the past few years. Now they ride the cyclocross bikes almost exclusively.

Yup.

I'm guessing that is true...the majority of frames are made for the average rider, not elite racers. Most people aren't riding 200 miles a week and sprinting up every hill and you don't really an need "aircraft quality" level of engineering for developing an "average" frame.

Nice. What is that in the bottom left hand corner....it looks rather mammalian...small game of some sort?

Thank you OP for a most entertaining thread. I'm going to go hide under my (steel) bed frame now.

I'm a Clydesdale at 230 and have a 61CM 10 year old Klein Quantum II with over 30K miles. Perfect bike with no problems. Love the ride and handling too.

Have you considered titanium.......?

Wabbits.

In case of Armageddon, you're gonna need to be able to get your own food......

And a mohawk. Post apocolyptic living is no fun unless you have a b|tchin' mohawk.