UCIMBZ

I beg to differ.

M_S

I like aluminum. Lots of cheap, decently light options. I'm even thinking about a custom aluminum cross bike somewhere down the line, probably Rock Lobster or maybe ventana.

Seattle Forrest

REI ( which is the nearest bike shop to my apartment ) has a 2010 Scott carbon frameset with Tiagra for $1,399. If I were made out of money I'd get one as a rain bike. As it is, my rain bike is an aluminum cross I paid $600 or so for, used, from a shop that accepts returns. It was about $900 new a couple years ago, with mostly 105 components.

Interesting question. I think you're probably right, by and by, but it'll be 20+ years before alu goes vintage only.

kaliayev

Personally I prefer premium aluminum and steel frames. To me carbon feels dead and lacks feedback from the pavement. But, yeah I don't see a long future for aluminum. Then again I don't see cf as the end all in the evolution of the bike frame.

wrr1020

Highly doubt it, how many times do we see posts a week titled "new to cycling, looking to spend $700 max". No matter what advances there are in cost cutting to carbon fiber we will never see CF bikes in this price range, at least not for a very long time. There will always be a market for aluminum with the entry level bikes/new riders. Just because an entry level carbon bike can be had now for $2k and even less if its an old model etc someone new to the sport probably won't wanna drop $2k on something they don't even know if they'll like.

sced

As some have said, it's really matter of what's fashionable at the moment. There was steel, more recently aluminum, then Ti, and now CF, which has been around for awhile and its cachet curve is headed downward while steel's is on the uptick. All of these materials can be made into great frames that can suit the purpose of 99.9% of the riders out there. As for selling your beautiful bikes, aluminum has the least cachet right now so your asking price needs to reflect the depressed market.

bradtx

rufvelo, I've heard the beer can analogy for nearly two decades, it was old long ago.

sced, Your last sentence in #31 answers pstock's question best.

UCIMBZ, Thanks for posting a pic of something made from aluminum other than a Cannondale, nice bike BTW.

Brad

garysol1 

Fact is that you can buy a quality complete 10 speed carbon bike for under $1,700. A quality 10 speed Aluminum bike will cost you around $1,200.
That $1,200 aluminum bike is out of reach for most cycling newbies and most experienced riders don't mind spending up to get carbon. So I guess my point is this..... Aluminum is still going strong but mainly in the very low end bikes. Those bikes that are sub $850.00. Higher end Ai frames such as the new Allez and CAAD 10 are awesome frames but unfortunately the buying public just does not support that niche very strongly.

aggro_jo

at first glance I thought this was another lame ass old thread that had been bumped. Imagine my delight when I realized it was a brand new lame ass thread.

TnDiamondback

I am quite happy with my 7000 grade alu Felt, the fabeled CAAD for 2011 is 6000, good aluminum makes a good bike. I will upgrade the group as things wear out, no cf in my near future.

merlinextraligh

The problem is it's neither fish nor fowl. Colnago fans that want high end modern bikes want a carbon fiber Colnago. Colnago fans that want a classic Colnago want a steel Colnago.

An aluminum Colnago isn't really a high end modern bike, and it really isn't classic.

And they're not particularly cheap. So you're trying to appeal to an extremely small market segment.

merlinextraligh

Knock a light Aluminum frame over in your garage onto a christmas tree stand, and you might be surprised about how apt the beer can analogy can be.

Wife's CAAD 7, bought as a Christmas present was dead before the Christmas decorations were put away.

wens

The difference between 6 series and 7 series aluminum is far less than the difference caused by heat treatment and cold working. Good design makes a good bike, regardless of the material.

crhilton

For road? I think aluminum is dying a slow death and being pushed into the low end realm only. It's not there yet, but carbon starts at $2k for a complete bike these days.

For mountain I suspect aluminum has a stronger presence in the high end.

crhilton

A couple people, locally, have specifically referred to CAAD as beer cans. I'm not sure if it's fair or if it's reaction to the obsessive devotees of CAAD. But I think aluminum frames in general handle being banged around pretty well. Mine has.

FlashBazbo

To the OP's specific situation, this is clearly the correct answer.

FlashBazbo

People have snapped high-end carbon frames just as freakishly/easily. That doesn't mean carbon frames are obsolete (except among the exploding carbon contingent).

sced

Ditto. Perhaps some have been made pointlessly light at the expense of durability. There is also the design issue of achieving stiffness using larger diameter thinner-walled round tubes ala Cannondale versus smaller x-section, shaped, thicker-walled tubes ala, e.g., Columbus. Aluminum Cannondales might be less popular if more people understood simple physics and had a better grasp of reality.

FlashBazbo

For the 2011/2012 market, the issue is going to become materials prices. Inflation is hitting the price of raw materials pretty hard right now and that will almost certainly increase as it works through to the retail level in 2011.

Raw materials prices for CF have gone up over 20% over the last twelve months. Since CF is largely made of petroleum, it can be kind of volatile. Aluminum prices are up 11% over the same period of time. That said, mass market CF is pretty cheap to produce. To maintain the same margins, manufacturers will have to increase CF frameset prices by a pretty big margin -- but then, again, they've got a lot of margin in those frames. They may eat a lot of their cost increase. If retail prices track the price of materials, either (1) the price of carbon frames is going to go WAY up over the next year, or (2) the grade of material in CF frames is going to go way down. (And, hey, it's plastic. Who is really going to notice?)

Both of those speak well for the continued vitality of aluminum frames in the marketplace.

merlinextraligh

Didn't mean to particularly diss aluminum frames, but to respond to the post that the "beer can effect" is a cliche. To get a very light Al frame you end up having very thin tubing in various places on the frame.

If you are unfortunate to dent it in the wrong place, the "beer can effect" definitely is a real issue.

That doesn't mean Al frames are "bad" but everything including the vaunted CAAD series of bikes can break, and hit the wrong way in the wrong place a very light Al frame will fail like a beer can with a dent in the side.

Phantoj

What "simple physics" are you talking about? Most of the time, when I see someone invoke "simple physics", he's wrong.

FlashBazbo

Yeah. It's the modern way. If you don't have an argument, call the person who disagrees with you a stupid-head.

UCIMBZ

U r welcome!

DinoShepherd

Doesn't matter to me one way or the other.

But that Pinarello Paris has teh hotness.

-Z

UCIMBZ

Right now no aluminum bike is a high end modern bike.

That will take time.