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Old 10-13-17, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by miyata man
Honest accounting flatters itself. I appreciate you posting these screenshots of their entire user base. One thing that jumps out is if these were predominantly racers knowing their data was being collected the anomalies would be on the other end. That is the type of ftp and w/kg that wins races. The ones that can sell lower efforts as nearer maximal.
Dave Jordaan is a power coach and has hundreds of files on clients that do not post their data, and of course many that do. That group is more selective than the post above and far to the right. Social media based data gives you a spread by those that post power on social media.
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Old 10-13-17, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by TheKillerPenguin
I tend to think the main limiter with amateurs is the amount of time and focus they are willing and/or able to dedicate to the sport. It takes so, so much work to hit your genetic potential, and the amount of time it takes to get there is so unreasonable that most people don't do it. Pursuing it with all you've got it probably takes like a decade plus to get there. It's seriously stupid to do it unless people give you money to ride a bike, and even then you're not exactly raking it in.

If we don't factor in anything besides genetic potential, I would be amazed if most people aren't capable of much more than they think they are. If we factor in that real life is a thing and making money is a necessity and drinking beer is fun and training when it's 20 degrees out sucks, then I guess there are plenty of people right at their limit.
I agree. Especially when the test is a 5 hour race. If races were shorter, more could race near their potential. I look at the time collegiate/or working youth adults have and there is no way to reach genetic potential for 5/6 hour (World Tour) level events and work/school. But if events were in the 2 hour range, while still very hard, I think it is doable. On track events "normal" working dudes, in masters can win worlds. And I believe without PEDs (staying OT).
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Old 10-13-17, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by furiousferret
Trainer puts out about 8% less power, due to various factors, so even then the numbers aren't perfect.
My power is measured with my power meter. I've personally set some of my power PRs on the kickr. But that's probably a function of doing more intervals on the kickr than outside where I have a hard time finding anyplace that can allow me to pedal 20 minutes.
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Old 10-13-17, 11:25 AM
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I might need to tack a "Do not take this literally" tag to the front end of all my posts.

Obviously nobody gets anywhere by training at half their capability or lower all the time. Gaming the data instead of tacking on a healthy margin of virile strength would have the amusing consequence of outing a lot in the latter category. Or dopers, just to be on topic as well.
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Old 10-13-17, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by globecanvas
Here's CA's power curve distribution chart which is based on actual data, not self-reported:
Interesting to see how the 99%-ile lines up with Coggan's ewang chart:



(this chart doesnt have 20 min, but some do, and the 99%-ile from CA falls between the 1min and 5min on that chart. makes complete sense for amateurs - hard to find a 1hr+ climb most places. also, i'd do the female side as well but CA doesnt have enough datapoints to give 99%-ile date for them)
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Old 10-13-17, 02:09 PM
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Where's the drugs in all this?
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Old 10-13-17, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by rubiksoval
I think Andy Coggan asserted that just about any healthy individual could hit ~4.0-4.2 w/kg.

Something like that. And if that's correct, than 300 should be possible for just about anyone over 75 kgs. .
I wonder if age was considered in that. I could get to 3.5 w/kg if I got down to the weight I'd like to be and gained about 20 watts in my FTP, and both are feasible. They just ain't easy at 65. Frankly, the weight is the tougher nut to crack for me.
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Old 10-13-17, 03:40 PM
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nvm - I am late to the conversation
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Old 10-13-17, 04:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Doge
Where's the drugs in all this?
Agreed. ****ing moderators.
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Old 10-13-17, 05:00 PM
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On the drugs and FTP - W/Kg - somewhat random thoughts.
FTP is 1 hour and few do that, and instead calculate it. The amazing thing to me is that power some can do after hour 5. It becomes mostly aerobic and waste handling. The pro level of the sport is hugely slanted to endurance. I'd of course favor if it was not so much. But that also has a bit of bearing on PEDs. Both stimulants and sedatives have benefits. Even alcohol, anything to chill, get to sleep and rest for the next day, makes the next day's power higher. A drug with a lower half-life is "better" - fast out, ready-to-go in the AM.

For a working rider, anyone who could use a drug to get to sleep the whole night, that taking a sedative allows more time to train, recover. Of course that is why some sedatives are banned too. But even for the non-pro working masters, I can see use here.

Are sedatives an issue only for pros?
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Old 10-13-17, 05:24 PM
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Aren't a lot of sedatives allowed? I know valium is.
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Old 10-13-17, 06:06 PM
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Didn't Bobby Lea take a sedative?
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Old 10-13-17, 06:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Radish_legs
I'm pretty sure CDR weighs a lot less than me.
Originally Posted by Radish_legs
Have you ever tried to reach that kind of FTP? I got just below 290w this year. This could be another debate point--> is 300w FTP within reach to just about every cyclist who is willing to put in the work? Or are there genetic limiters that would prevent x% from reaching 300w FTP?
TRust me, I tried to up my FTP. I figured my first tests had to be flukes, problems, because the numbers were so low.

I'm about 78 kg right now, FTP unknown but realistically around 205-210w. I raced this year at about this weight (77-81 kg), last year more like 78-80 kg, and in 2015 (a good year, relatively speaking, with my last win and three strong third places including two field sprint wins) at 74-75 kg.

When I tested in Feb 2015 (or March?) I was a solid 205w, and relatively fit. I was 218w in April, felt unstoppable. In 2010, at 72kg/220w, I felt unstoppable also, and earned enough upgrade points to move to Cat 2 by June or so.

Most of my races I avg around 160-180w, typically about 1 hour. At 200w avg for an hour I struggle to sprint.

When I first got my SRM I decided that I'd explore limits, sort of like me using huge gears on hills and such, just a sort of "think outside the box", try and see how I could leverage knowing my power. I decided that my limitations were from self doubt etc.

However I found myself unable to sustain power outputs I thought sustainable for more than a few minutes. 250w, 260w, and this when I was pretty strong. I did discover my sprint is a one-trick pony, where I have a super high peak and power just drops off a cliff. I tried to adjust that by shifting at optimal rpms so I'd hit two or three similar peaks, and that worked to increase average wattage for a sprint substantially.

However, from an aerobic/FTP point of view, nothing I tried stuck. I struggled mightily to hold 240w for 8 minutes (at my best in 2015).
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Old 10-13-17, 08:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Doge
Dave Jordaan is a power coach and has hundreds of files on clients that do not post their data, and of course many that do. That group is more selective than the post above and far to the right. Social media based data gives you a spread by those that post power on social media.
yep--definite bias to it.

but to GC's point, in theory it is better quality data as it is everything, not self-reported. many people may have poorly performing meters, but we might hope that would cancel out on both sides of the curve.

still, people that are likely to collect this data might introduce a bias of it's own (and maybe to the higher side of things for amateurs).
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Old 10-13-17, 08:35 PM
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Originally Posted by furiousferret
Trainer puts out about 8% less power, due to various factors, so even then the numbers aren't perfect.
i don't think this can be expressed as a statement of fact.

i know people who put out more power on their trainer than outdoors, and some who come far from it.
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Old 10-13-17, 08:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Radish_legs
My power is measured with my power meter. I've personally set some of my power PRs on the kickr. But that's probably a function of doing more intervals on the kickr than outside where I have a hard time finding anyplace that can allow me to pedal 20 minutes.
what power meter?

the power meter on the kickr is not known for throwing great #s, but many people use a reliable meter to get better data from it.
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Old 10-13-17, 08:39 PM
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Originally Posted by carpediemracing
TRust me, I tried to up my FTP. I figured my first tests had to be flukes, problems, because the numbers were so low.

I'm about 78 kg right now, FTP unknown but realistically around 205-210w. I raced this year at about this weight (77-81 kg), last year more like 78-80 kg, and in 2015 (a good year, relatively speaking, with my last win and three strong third places including two field sprint wins) at 74-75 kg.

When I tested in Feb 2015 (or March?) I was a solid 205w, and relatively fit. I was 218w in April, felt unstoppable. In 2010, at 72kg/220w, I felt unstoppable also, and earned enough upgrade points to move to Cat 2 by June or so.

Most of my races I avg around 160-180w, typically about 1 hour. At 200w avg for an hour I struggle to sprint.

When I first got my SRM I decided that I'd explore limits, sort of like me using huge gears on hills and such, just a sort of "think outside the box", try and see how I could leverage knowing my power. I decided that my limitations were from self doubt etc.

However I found myself unable to sustain power outputs I thought sustainable for more than a few minutes. 250w, 260w, and this when I was pretty strong. I did discover my sprint is a one-trick pony, where I have a super high peak and power just drops off a cliff. I tried to adjust that by shifting at optimal rpms so I'd hit two or three similar peaks, and that worked to increase average wattage for a sprint substantially.

However, from an aerobic/FTP point of view, nothing I tried stuck. I struggled mightily to hold 240w for 8 minutes (at my best in 2015).
They say that if you work at it long enough you can convert fast twitch to slow twitch. I think that is what has happened with me. I've lost top end and gained FTP.

I would say my natural peak distance for running is 400m. So I not naturally an endurance person. I figure if I can get my FTP up, almost anyone can.
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Old 10-13-17, 08:42 PM
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anyone watch Icarus on Netflix yet? That should be its own thread.
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Old 10-13-17, 10:14 PM
  #1944  
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Originally Posted by gsteinb
Aren't a lot of sedatives allowed? I know valium is.
Yes. Some are, some are not.
Depending on event/s it is an advantage to those using the drug vs those that don't.
Some allowed sedatives are pretty serious/addictive drugs. More so IMO than taking the espresso before the ride.
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Old 10-13-17, 10:43 PM
  #1945  
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Originally Posted by Radish_legs
anyone watch Icarus on Netflix yet? That should be its own thread.
Yes - I thought it was kinda lame.
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Old 10-14-17, 02:25 AM
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Originally Posted by mattm
Yes - I thought it was kinda lame.
for real?

i thought that haute-route and whole amateur-doping-to-beat-the-dopers was boring, but it picked up a ton of steam (IMO) about 1/3 of the way through and they way the russians beat the system at the Olympics was fascinating.

i also felt like it was NOT about condemning the russians as the only ones doping, though they had the most sophisticated system to do it in sochi.

it was like watching snowden's whistleblowing in real-time, with the dude running for his life (literally).

i'm genuinely surprised to hear your response, but it would make sense that someone shut it off after 10' or so.
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Old 10-14-17, 02:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Radish_legs
They say that if you work at it long enough you can convert fast twitch to slow twitch. I think that is what has happened with me. I've lost top end and gained FTP.
well, not really. it's definitely not settled, but the general consensus is you can't convert type I fibers to type II or vice versa, but one may be able to convert between IIa and IIb (or IIx), which can assist with endurance.
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Old 10-14-17, 09:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Radish_legs
They say that if you work at it long enough you can convert fast twitch to slow twitch. I think that is what has happened with me. I've lost top end and gained FTP.

I would say my natural peak distance for running is 400m. So I not naturally an endurance person. I figure if I can get my FTP up, almost anyone can.
I would argue this. Chris Hoy, for example, won't ever become an ultra endurance rider.

Plus, if Hoy sacrificed, say, 1000w of his sprint, or 1200w of his sprint, to gain some FTP, it'd put him back into a Cat 3 sprinter (if he's a 2000-2400w peak sprinter), not a world class one, and I'm guessing on the flip side he wouldn't be a Froome or Sagan on the road.

A less extreme example would be getting a Cavendish or Kittel - you don't see them working on becoming a GC rider. There have been a few riders that were close to GC riders that were sprinters - Sean Kelly comes to mind as one who could mix it up in field sprints, Lemond could sprint if he had to but typically against non-sprinters - but those riders are rare.

I do think that a rider loses fast twitch power as they get older. You don't see top level 40 year old sprinters, and if a rider is a good 40 year old sprinter, they were a great 30 year old sprinter. I've lost a lot of top end over the years. I've noticed I have a bit more staying power, mainly in recovery over days or weeks, but it may also be that I wasn't recovering well in my younger years.
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Old 10-14-17, 12:19 PM
  #1949  
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Originally Posted by tetonrider
for real?

i thought that haute-route and whole amateur-doping-to-beat-the-dopers was boring, but it picked up a ton of steam (IMO) about 1/3 of the way through and they way the russians beat the system at the Olympics was fascinating.

i also felt like it was NOT about condemning the russians as the only ones doping, though they had the most sophisticated system to do it in sochi.

it was like watching snowden's whistleblowing in real-time, with the dude running for his life (literally).

i'm genuinely surprised to hear your response, but it would make sense that someone shut it off after 10' or so.
It was interesting, but a few things that annoyed me where:

1) the main masters guy just wanted to dope and win some fondo or whatever - that wasn't "research" in to doping, at all.

2) then the "evil scientist" who helped Russia dope for all those years became some kind of "hero" in the guy's eyes - just because he was all of a sudden an enemy of the state doesn't mean his hands were clean. That whole part of it was a bit much for me.

So I just felt like it was a little over-done. Sure, cover the Russian doping part, that's interesting, but don't mix it in with "I just want to win this Fondo really really bad," and then also make the doper doctor guy out to be a hero for the world to behold.
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Old 10-14-17, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Radish_legs
They say that if you work at it long enough you can convert fast twitch to slow twitch.
Who is "they" in this case?

Also, I thought "they" said you can't really convert muscle types, you can just develop them.
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