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Taking Risks

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Old 03-16-16, 04:18 PM
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Taking Risks

Here is a report about a hiker who died recently in the Adirondacks: ?A fatal mistake? - LakePlacidNews.com | News and information on the Lake Placid and Essex County region of New York - Lake Placid News

It's a tricky juggling act, I think. The foundation for planning has to be a study of the conditions one is likely to experience on whatever expedition: certainly weather, but also water and food availability, wildlife encounters, etc. Of course one might encounter some rather rare event when out on the actual expedition. It doesn't make sense to plan for every possible situation, but does one try to cover 99% or 99.9%?

Then, when contemplating a situation that might arise, one can use some combination of expertise, equipment you've brought along, or materials etc. that one picks up locally. Any of these will have some possibility of failure. E.g. hypothermia or very high altitude are famous for clouding one's judgement.

Anyway it's good to learn from the experience of others. The notion of internet grandstanding is quite interesting in terms of pressuring a person to less than ideal planning.
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Old 03-16-16, 04:40 PM
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There is taking risks with what you pack and then there is just being irresponsible.

I risk getting wet when i ride on an overcast day. If it rains and i dont have a jacket, i get really wet.
I risked getting wet and lost. I am now wet, oh well.

And then there is the linked story.

Taking risks where a negative end result is a minor inconvenience is key.
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Old 03-16-16, 04:41 PM
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From many years of search and rescue work, I have come to believe that this type of tragedy is not generally caused by one big mistake; they are most often the result of a sequence of seemingly insignificant, bad decisions.

In this case, changing just one of the many bad choices that she made could have resulted in a much different outcome.
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Old 03-16-16, 05:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Doug64
From many years of search and rescue work, I have come to believe that this type of tragedy is not generally caused by one big mistake; they are most often the result of a sequence of seemingly insignificant, bad decisions.

In this case, changing just one of the many bad choices that she made could have resulted in a much different outcome.
+1
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Old 03-16-16, 06:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Jim Kukula
Then, when contemplating a situation that might arise, one can use some combination of expertise, equipment you've brought along, or materials etc. that one picks up locally.

...

Anyway it's good to learn from the experience of others.
Learning from your own personal experience is better.

In other words ...

Start by riding short distances close to home in all sorts of different conditions. You're close enough to home that you can walk or catch a bus or taxi if you really run into difficulty. Become familiar with conditions. Become familiar with roads and traffic. Become familiar with your equipment and places you might be able to get emergency equipment ... visit your local service stations, hardware stores, etc.

Then start riding longer distances further afield ... but still in a somewhat familiar environment. Build up so you feel comfortable riding 100 km or more. Ride at night so you know what you need in the way of lights. Check out places along the way where you might be able to get supplies, like little country stores, etc.

Go camping ... it might be that you'll do overnight cycling tours, or maybe even just taking the family out to a campground in the car. Bring the bicycle and ride each day from there. Get familiar with being outside in nature. Visit small towns near the camping area to see what they've got in the way of supplies. Make lists of what you've got and what you discover you need.

Learn to do bicycle maintenance. And not just downloading an app to your phone. Actually do it. Take hands-on classes, go to bike coops, take apart and rebuild an old bicycle. Become familiar with your tools and your bicycle.

Take a First Aid class ... perhaps especially one that focuses on active outdoor first aid, if you can.

Learn to read a map and compass. Learn to read the weather based on what you see in the sky. Learn to read other signs nature provides to determine direction and environmental conditions.

Get involved in other outdoor sports like hiking, kayaking, cross-country skiing ... cross-training and more opportunity to become even more familiar with weather conditions, terrain, etc. etc.


Of course, things can still happen. But your own personal background and preparation can go a long way to making better decisions.

Last edited by Machka; 03-16-16 at 06:16 PM.
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Old 03-16-16, 07:57 PM
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Uh, Yea... Her choices caught up with her... Just because you can "getaway with" a lot doesn't mean it's the right way to do whatever you are doing...
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Old 03-16-16, 09:39 PM
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It is hard to believe that she had done that much hiking, and hadn't learned from experience the dangers of hypothermia, or possibly hypoglycemia. I carry more than that bicyle commuting home every day, through a major metropolitan area, because "stuff happens". I think to myself, IF I break down when it is raining, and I'm totally soaked, do I have enough clothing to keep me warm enough to hike a mile or two or five?
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Old 03-16-16, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Jim Kukula
It's a tricky juggling act....
no, not really. from the article:

"hiked MacNaughton Mountain March 4 by herself without the clothing and gear officials advise winter hikers to bring."

"Davis was found wearing sneakers and sweatpants, which several people have said was her normal hiking apparel. She had a lighter but no other emergency gear."

"...a sleeping bag and other gear were found in Davis' car.....Davis had no sleeping bag or space blanket with her...."

"...Davis lacked some basic backcountry skills. She didn't know how to use a map or compass, and relied on her phone for navigation. ..."


she was a darwin award waiting to happen.
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Old 03-16-16, 10:33 PM
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Fast and light is fine for Uli Steck who fully understands what he is doing and is quite expert at it. People like that have been doing it a while and have learned from mistakes and also had a good education at the start. If you don't have that you certainly should be extra careful especially in the winter. The outdoors is fun and beautiful but without proper knowledge, skills and gear you can wind up dead as this person did.

We should all take a good lesson from Chris McCandless who stepped into the wild (herr herr herr...bad pun) with little knowledge and basically killed himself. It is a sad story but one that everyone can easily learn from. Don't just be a free spirit and run out into nature thinking you have a some supplies you will be fine get some knowledge, learn how to use maps and compasses, learn some basic survival skills so you can have more fun out there.

For touring I would rather bring something I didn't need than not have something I needed. That isn't to say you should take everything and your grandmother (unless she likes to ride). However if there is something you think you might need that you don't you can always just carry it or mail it back or donate it to someone who might need it. The more you tour or do whatever hopefully the more knowledge you will gain. Start off easier and get harder as time goes on if you so choose.
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Old 03-16-16, 11:23 PM
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When I was a child a man moved to where I lived and built the small towns 1st (and only) bowling alley. Rumors quickly spread that the man would drink Coke Cola for breakfast... and continue drinking cokes the entire day and into the evening. In the 1950's this was considered grossly unhealthy. Everyone was convinced his habit could only end badly.

Sure enough, many years later, after a brief illness he passed away. He was 92. Many people were convinced it was the Cokes that killed him.

I heard similar comments about an aunt of mine (and her eating habits) at her funnel and wake. She was 84.

I am pretty sure everyone understands... we all die. Just about all activities have some degree of risk. Spend long hours enjoying your favorite behaviors... and the odds may catch up with you while you are enjoying yourself. But everyone will die of something.
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Old 03-17-16, 01:00 AM
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I cannot help but think after reading the article that there might have been more to do with a depressive episode and suicide.

There are things that just don't add up to someone taking unwarranted risks. Family in France, adulation on the internet probably interspersed with the inevitable trolling, high achievement in a short time with not much else to achieve... it might have led to something far more sinister.

One of the clue for me is that she attempted to make a fire with her gloves and lighter -- a sign perhaps that she had changed her mind about taking her own life. She obviously had the equipment which she left in the car... another sign, to me, that she had suicidal intentions.
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Old 03-17-16, 01:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka
Learning from your own personal experience is better.

In other words ...
Great post Machka!

I would agree that learning from someone experienced, actually hands on out there, is the best way to learn. This is what you're doing going to bike-mech courses or first-aid lessons as Machka suggested. If early on you can tour with someone experienced; learn, be taught, observe and ask questions, discuss and share, then you can lay a great foundation to build your own experience on.

I had the good fortune to have had a father who was ex-military and a lifetime Boy Scout leader. Then when I started travelling it was with a somewhat older friend, a hippy, who taught me about "the road"...

Tell ya', there's a wealth of knowledge and experience out there. Don't be afraid to ask someone "what, how, why.. they do things". People are more than happy to share their experience... to pass it on
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Old 03-17-16, 02:02 AM
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Learning from other people is limited by the almost universal tendency to assume the people who died did something wrong, or were stupid. It's like the Carlin bit where drivers that speed past are maniacs, and drivers one is stuck behind are morons.

Learning from one's own experience is limited by the fact it may be overly specific. So I blew up a Schwalbe tire hitting a small rock. Now I carry a spare tire. On the one hand I know that experience is not sufficient to warrant that response. On the other hand if I don't actually modify my actions when something bad happens, when would I. It would be different if I had access to some universal stats, but I don't.
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Old 03-17-16, 02:06 AM
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Unless one lives in a place with vipers and lions, the chance of dying in conventional touring, other than a road accident is pretty close to nil. Bike touring is mostly just doing a few things that we used to trust 3 year olds to do: Sleep in the yard; eat; ride a bike.
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Old 03-17-16, 02:56 AM
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Originally Posted by MassiveD
Unless one lives in a place with vipers and lions, the chance of dying in conventional touring, other than a road accident is pretty close to nil.

ohcrap!ohcrap!ohcrap!


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Old 03-17-16, 03:28 AM
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Taking Risks

... or mean ostriches
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Old 03-17-16, 03:32 AM
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Originally Posted by MassiveD
Unless one lives in a place with vipers and lions ...
Well ...

I used to live in Canada ... where there are mountain lions.

And I now live in Australia ... where there are lots of poisonous snakes .....

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Old 03-17-16, 03:40 AM
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Taking Risks

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Old 03-17-16, 03:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka
Well ...

I used to live in Canada ... where there are mountain lions.

And I now live in Australia ... where there are lots of poisonous snakes .....

Yeah, and a big red kangaroo is something no-one wants to argue with... and if they jump across you on a bike, you could be a gonner.

Not to mention the poisonous tree in Far North Queensland, the blue-ringed octopus, the stinger jellyfish, the stingrays (remember Steve Irwin?), the crocodiles, and the poisonous spiders.

I made a joke a long time ago that Australia's population is around 20 million, and it increases by about 5,000,000 a year, but the poisonous and/or nasty wildlife keeps at at 20 million. Some people believes me
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Old 03-17-16, 04:12 AM
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Originally Posted by imi
... or mean ostriches
Or one of these...

.be
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Old 03-17-16, 04:18 AM
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Old 03-17-16, 04:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka
Well ...

I used to live in Canada ... where there are mountain lions.

And I now live in Australia ... where there are lots of poisonous snakes .....

Me too after many years overseas.

After a close encounter with a snake, (no bite), I've taken more responsibility and purchased a locator beacon.

https://www.acrartex.com/products/ca....nhFVjaNl.dpbs

Think its that one.
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Old 03-17-16, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by MassiveD
Unless one lives in a place with vipers and lions, the chance of dying in conventional touring, other than a road accident is pretty close to nil.
There are some mighty remote places you can get to in the lower 48, even staying on roads.

This guy was on a trail, but still, it wasn't a viper or lion: Mountain biker found dead in Cleveland forest was celebrating birthday - The Orange County Register

similar: https://articles.chicagotribune.com/2000-08-13/news/0008130205_1_mile-markers-father-trip

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Old 03-17-16, 11:28 AM
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I get the ultralight thing, but not having a rain coat with a hood, a hat and a wool sweater? Not making sense.
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Old 03-17-16, 12:05 PM
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The Appalachian Mountain Club publishes a booklet of stories, poems and reminiscences and has a popular section of accident reports. Reading these reports over time it is evident that most mishaps are not accidents at all. Most of the time these incidents are the result of inexperience and or poor preparation. From time to time quite experienced people will come to harm by poor judgment which probably goes back to inexperience. Several years ago a New Hampshire forest ranger died on an exposed ridge (Twin Mountain) during a spell of very cold weather. I was camping down low in an area protected from wind and the temperature was 20 below. Up on the ridge, several thousand feet higher the temp was likely 10 degrees colder with high winds. Wind chill was probably 20 degrees colder than that. That ranger had probably never experienced conditions like that where there is no margin for error.

This is typical of such incidences where a tiny margin of safety is misjudged and small errors can accumulate reducing that margin further where the next incident spells doom.
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