I have recently gotten a Tacx Neo Trainer and signed up to Zwift. My first FTP test gave me an FTP of 200w (2.8W/KG).

I have never actually "Trained" before, but I have been commuting by bicycle for the last 3 years (15km twice a day), as well as some cross fit style training a few times a week.

I have set myself a goal of 250w (3.5W/KG) in 12 months, then 300w (4.2W/KG) in another 12 months. Is this realistic? or just a dream?

Also how many hours a week of training a week will I need a week to achieve this?

Hard to tell at this point. You'll likely make rapid gains in the first three months as you learn pacing and suffering. After that it depends on your genetics and time for training. You'll probably need 6-8 hrs of quality training per week but it's easier if you can average 10+ hrs.
Most people test lower indoors vs outdoors for a variety of reasons so your actual FTP may be higher than 200.

The biggest factor will be whether or not you enjoy training. If you do and are an 'average' male you should be able to get to 4W/kg.

Good luck!

Probably realistic. May actually find yourself closer to 300 by the end of a year or year and a half if you respond well to training. No telling how many hours. Some people can do it off 4-5, some people 10-12, and some people not at all.

Just got to give it a shot and see.

The athletes Joe Friel trains are able to achieve 4.4w/kg, -10% for being female, -0.5% per year past 35, +/- 10% for roadies, down to - 20% for triathletes.

If you're under 60 you should get to 3.5W/kg in a few months.

OTOH 4.2W/kg may or may not be genetically possible.

Thanks for everyone's replies. Any idea on the training sessions I should be doing on Zwift to give me dynamic all-rounder cycling ability (high power sprints, endurance, high FTP). I have about 12hrs a week to train.

I find zwift races quite motivating and I know last season it got my ftp back to a high point and I got really good at riding at or very near ftp continuously for over 60mins on those events, just because it's always more motivating to suffer along with others.

Personally, with a trainer with erg mode (I use the cycleops hammer), I actually prefer trainerroad and doing the structured plans. Due to circumstances I'm doing base training now and have been doing the sweet spot base program, and I really like it. Trainerroad just has (in my opinion) better training sessions than zwift.

I tried the SST medium and saw some quick results while I was coming back from injury in May

I did SST high volume 1 and saw a 10w improvement from 230 to 240 (granted I was at 265 ftp back in october before a winter where being sick and being busy set me back big time. I've been doing sst 2 high volume but am not as optimistic for improvement since I've generally missed weekend rides, but it's a good program

200 to 250 (3.5) in a year is absolutely doable at 3-4 days a week of structured training. Probably 3 structured rides, and 1 free ride.
After that, it's anyone's guess.
Getting from 3.5 to 4.2 W/kg is, in my opinion, dependent on genetics and QUALITY of time put in.
It make take a year of dedicated and structured work to get that 3.5 up another 10% to 3.9 - just really depends on the person...or it might come easy for you. I feel like most people could probably hit 4 W/kg with the right training - but I also feel it could very well be the upper limits for a lot of people as well.

3.5 to 4.2 will require work. Don't forget the weight part of the equation of you are really just looking for improved w/kg.


And remember w/kg predicts performance on climbs much more than flats.