...I was stupid and did too much work early on in the ride but
I blew my wad pretty early too, but I still wouldn't categorize it as stupid. After pedaling into that head/crosswind on the way out to Santa Maria, we were all expecting a tailwind on the way back in. Something about the shape of the hills was creating some kind of swirl, because that tailwind didn't come until after mile 75, and then it was sporadic.
[Edit. Just noticed your average wattage was only 211. Maybe I should have stuck with those gaggles. I averaged 231 watts and finished half an hour slower. (Of course hauling an extra 50 lbs of oxflesh up the hills probably had something to do with it too.)]