Remember Armstrong's famous Alpe D'Huez win and the "look". He played possum for most of the race and even appeared to be in trouble and then launched an amazing attack. These guys are so good it is hard to say what is going on. Clearly, AC has the juice, so it is when to use it and how best to use his team. AC may be in trouble but I doubt it.

Also, the GC racers use the initial stages to race into form. They do not necessarily show up in peak form day one. Peak form lasts for a short period of time. It is best to have it at critical stages later and not at the beginning.